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Meltzer's Musings: Hartnell Trade Analysis, Jump in the Fire |
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HARTNELL TRADED TO COLUMBUS
The Flyers have traded Scott Hartnell to the Columbus Blue Jackets, re-acquiring R.J. Umberger and also obtaining a fourth-round pick in the 2015 NHL Draft.
"The number one thing was that we wanted to get quicker up front," said Flyers general manager Ron Hextall. "Whenever you make a deal, there's a lot of considerations that come into the mix but the one driving the bus was quickness."
Umberger, who spent the first three seasons of his NHL career in Philadelphia and was a driving playoff force in the club's run to the 2008 Eastern Conference Finals, has been a 20-goal scorer five times. He is a responsible two-way player who skates well and has good size. His offensive production has slipped the last two seasons, however.
“RJ is a versatile guy who can play all [forward] positions," said Flyers head coach Craig Berube. "He’s a good penalty killer who skates well. He’s a veteran who has been around a long time and knows how to play the game properly. He’ll be used in a lot of different areas. I think with our team it is nice to have a real versatile guy like him.”
Hartnell has not approached his career-best 37-goal pace of 2011-12, but the power forward has hit the 20-goal mark seven times in his NHL career and has twice hit the 30-goal mark. The primary downside to his game has always been a proneness to bad penalties.
Conditioning and skating balance have also been issue at times, especially during the lockout shortened 2012-13 season when, by his own admission, Hartnell arrived in less-than-peak physical condition after the lockout ended. Flyers head coach Craig Berube is a stickler for conditioning and skating.
Nevertheless, this trade perplexes me a bit, unless it is the first of multiple moves.
Umberger's cap hit ($4.6 million) is not that much lower than Hartnell's ($4.75 million) and his contract runs through 2016-17, so this trade cannot be characterized as one that has significant cap-related advantages. Hartnell and Umberger are both 32 years old.
If the draft pick had been a higher one, I would have understood the benefit immediately. If Philly had gotten an extra second-round pick or some such, the deal could be explained as general manager Ron Hextall starting to collect assets. Umberger is strictly a third-line player, albeit a good one. The pick the Flyers got is a negligible additional asset in exchange for someone who has been a first-line left winger on the club and has been part of several successful line combinations over the years.
Umberger is a definite upgrade over Steve Downie as a fit on the third line with Sean Couturier and Matt Read. He wins a lot of battles and usually plays a disciplined game, whereas Downie has rarely done the latter in his NHL and was not doing much of the former this past season.
Now the big question: Who will be the Flyers new first line left winger? As of now, the job may go to Brayden Schenn, along with Hartnell's role on the top power play unit. If that's the case, it means the Flyers will be in the market for another top-six forward.
We shall see in the days and weeks to come what Hextall has planned.
JUMP IN THE FIRE
I have always had a theory about the rhythm and pacing of the regular season hockey schedule: It is sometimes better to catch top-grade opposition either very early in the season or during the stretch drive than in the middle of the year.
During the early part of the season, many teams (even the top ones in the league) are trying to get their systems in sync. Special teams may take a few weeks to hit their stride. Some veteran star players may be habitual slow starters. There are inevitably some new players on the roster and coaches are trying to find chemistry in their line combinations.
All teams are more or less in the same boat, which is why the standings are often quite volatile in the early going of the season.
Late in the season, some elite teams may be coasting toward the finish line and can be knocked off by a hungrier team that does not yet have a playoff spot secured. Alternatively, the matchup is one that carries playoff-like intensity. In either case, these are the same clubs your team will have to beat to get anywhere in the playoffs, so playing them during the stretch run is a good test.
The Philadelphia Flyers jump right into the fire with their 2014-15 regular season schedule. Nine of their first 10 games are against teams that made the Stanley Cup playoffs this past season, including an Oct. 28 home game against the defending Stanley Cup champion Los Angeles Kings.
It all starts with a tough three-in-four slate, opening on the road against Eastern Conference powerhouse Boston. The next night, the Flyers play their own home opener against a New Jersey Devils team that missed the playoffs in 2013-14 but habitually gives Philly a tough time. Two nights later, the Flyers are in Montreal to take on a Habs team that reached the Eastern Conference Finals this past season.
It's a tough challenge to be sure, but there's no need for instant doom-and-doom four months ahead of the opening game.
First of all, it's not like the NFL were there are some teams your team plays that your divisional and conference rivals do not play during the season (and vice versa). It all evens out eventually, both in on-paper difficulty and the logistics involved. Every team is going to have stretches where it risks fatigue while some opponents are more rested. Every team has its road trips and homestands. No one is going to feel sorry for you.
Secondly, the Flyers have faced similar challenges in the recent past and have held their own. In 2011-12, the Flyers started out on the road against Boston (then the defending Stanley Cup Champions and having swept Philly in the playoffs). Then they faced the Devils in Newark. Following that, Philly had its home opener against a Vancouver Canucks team that was coming off a trip to the Finals and was considered among the top contenders to win the Cup. Finally, the Flyers hosted Los Angeles in Mike Richards' first game in Philadelphia following his trade to LA.
The Flyers opened the season by beating Boston (2-1), New Jersey (3-0) and Vancouver (a hairy 5-4 win after Philly led 2-0 and 3-1). They dropped a hard-fought 3-2 overtime decision to the Kings (decided by a Jack Johnson power play goal at 4-on-3 manpower). For all the hand-wringing about what a difficult slate of games it was going to be, Philly started the season at 3-0-1 and went on to a 103-point season and an eventual first-round playoff win over Pittsburgh before losing to New Jersey in the second round.
This past season, the Flyers faced a stretch run gauntlet that saw them sweep the Penguins in a home-in-home, defeat Chicago 3-2 in overtime, win a hard-fought 4-3 regulation game against a Dallas Stars team that was fighting for its playoff lives and then beat the St. Louis Blues by a 4-1 count. Finally, the Flyers dropped a 3-2 decision to Los Angeles after battling back to tie the game.
Of course, there is no guarantee that the Flyers will duplicate these successful runs when they start next season. At the same time, it is ridiculous to assume the team is already doomed to getting off to a terrible start like this past season's 1-7-0 stagger in October. Even if Philly does struggle a bit in October (let's say they open something like 4-5-1), it needn't be fatal.
The hockey season is a very long one. A team might as well make like that old Metallica song and jump in the fire from the outset.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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