Welcome to The Week In Review According To Me (TWIRATOME), a regular Monday feature breaking down the week that was for the Edmonton Oilers. Most weeks might take on the feel of an autopsy, sifting through symptoms and clues to determine the cause of disaster, but all are worthy of examination before moving forward.
What Happened?
The season of snakes and ladders continued, as the Oilers embarked on a five-game road trip. On Tuesday, Edmonton was stymied by Steve Mason in a 4-1 defeat to the Philadelphia Flyers. A third-period collapse sealed the Oilers’ fate in a 5-2 loss to the Boston Bruins on Thursday. The following night, the Oilers scratched out a 3-2 win over the Buffalo Sabres. Edmonton put together its most complete effort of the season Sunday, downing the New York Rangers, 3-1, at Madison Square Garden.
Standings Snapshot
Following two much-needed victories, the Oilers are showing signs of life and staying within earshot of the Pacific Division pack. It would take another three points in their next two games to make it back to that elusive point-per-game status, which is encouraging when you consider the Oilers have already been left for dead twice this season. And for good reason. Winning six of their last 10 is notable, although the team’s four-game winning streak was bookended by five- and four-game losing skids.
Best Reason to Freak Out
Shot totals don’t always offer the best indication of a team’s play, but the Oilers outshout the opposition 147-109 last week. That’s a significant margin, especially on the road without the advantage of last change. Combine shot differential with the fact that the Oilers outplayed the Sabres and Rangers throughout, while putting together good stretches against the Flyers and Bruins, and there’s reason for optimism in the Heartland. Becoming a competitive team happens on the ice, not the scoreboard.
Week’s Worst Moment
The Oilers’ implosion against the Bruins was difficult to watch from 1,700 miles away, so I can only imagine how it must have felt to experience it. The worst moment of the week came during Carl Soderberg’s go-ahead goal. Nikita Nikitin was undressed by Patrice Bergeron, who put a centering ice on Soderberg’s tape for a bullet one-timer that beat Ben Scrivens. However, Bergeron was also tripped by Nikitin on the play. Adding insult to injury, the Bruins scored an insurance goal on the ensuing power play.
Week’s Best Moment
There are times when it’s okay to lose to the Buffalo Sabres. If you’re the defending Stanley Cup champions, nobody’s going to kick up much of a fuss if you drop one to the McDavids in October. However, when you’ve lost four in a row and nine of your first 13, a loss to the Sabres could signal the end of someone’s employment or a player’s tenure. Boyd Gordon saved the franchise from the apocalypse on Thursday, scoring the game-winning goal against a team the Oilers couldn’t afford to lose to.
Special Teams Report
PP: 6/48 – 12.5% (down from 14.7% last week)
PK: 30/38 – 79% (down from 81.2% last week)
Dallas Eakins has singled out goaltending as the Oilers’ primary concern, but you can’t ignore woeful special teams. Edmonton’s power play was 1-for-14 last week, failing to convert on opportunities that could have shifted momentum, erasing deficits or extending leads. The penalty kill wasn’t any better, killing only four of six man disadvantages last week. The Oilers’ saving grace in the special teams struggle is discipline, as they gave up fewer power plays than they received during each of last week’s four games.
Completely Useless Advanced Stat
Nail Yakupov’s Even Strength Average Shot Distance – 37.1 Feet
Yakupov leads the Oilers in shots saved 5-on-5 (30). He also has the third-highest average shot distance (37.1 feet) among regular Edmonton forwards at even strength. Chalk the numbers up to Yakupov’s strategy of barreling into the offensive zone and unleashing wrist shots from the top of the faceoff circle without a screen in front. Predictably, his even strength shooting percentage is a dismal 5.1 percent. He won’t turn things around and produce more offense until he can use his linemates and get closer to the goal.
Simple Stats
Goaltending Glance
LVP of the Week
I was trying to find a way to avoid crapping on an Oilers defenceman, and nearly talked myself into David Perron as the LVP, but Nikita Nikitin was clearly Edmonton’s worst player last week. He played a major role in the Boston debacle, and finished each of the week’s four games with a negative plus-minus. Sometimes that’s a case of wrong place, wrong time, but Nikitin was partially at fault on Philadelphia’s fourth goal and Buffalo’s first. Plus, he wasn’t on the ice during any Edmonton goals.
MVP of the Week
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins kept the Oilers competitive against Philadelphia and Boston, and drove the play against Buffalo and New York. He finished the week with two goals and two assists in four games, stepping up his game in Taylor Hall’s absence. RNH has taken some major strides this season. We can’t know exactly how much difference the healthy and pain-free offseason made, but he’s shooting and carrying the puck with a level of confidence we haven’t seen before. So far, he’s been terrific this season.
Looking Ahead
The competition doesn’t lighten up much, but the schedule certainly does after last week’s four road games in six nights. The Oilers can wrap up their five-game trip on a winning note tomorrow against the Nashville Predators. A win should produce a warm Rexall Place reception on Thursday night against the Ottawa Senators. After that, the team gets a couple nights off before playing host to the Arizona Coyotes on Sunday. This week should provide a good opportunity to find consistency and keep up the winning ways.
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Following up from Friday's Burning Questions, I was asked to predict Sunday's winners in a variety of sports. I did my best, but didn't come close to 100 percent. Here's how I predicted each contest, whether I was right or wrong, and the percentage I got right in each sport.
NHL - Only one right out of five games (20%) which just proves that nobody should ever wager on hockey outcomes.
Edmonton-
New York Rangers - Wrong
Tampa Bay-
Detroit - Wrong
Toronto-
Ottawa - Wrong
San Jose-Chicago - Wrong
Vancouver-Anaheim - Right
NFL - Picked 9 of 11 winners in the NFL. Of course, several games involved a heavy favorite, but I'll take credit anyway.
Kansas City-Buffalo - Right
Miami-
Detroit - Right
Dallas-Jacksonville - Right
San Francisco-
New Orleans - Wrong
Tennessee-
Baltimore - Right
Pittsburgh-New York Jets - Wrong
Atlanta-Tampa Bay - Right
Denver-Oakland - Right
St. Louis-
Arizona - Right
New York Giants-
Seattle - Right
Chicago-
Green Bay - Right
NBA - Looks like a 50-50 split in the NBA, although that one-point win by the Pistons is a hearbreaker.
Orlando-
Brooklyn - Right
Utah-
Detroit - Wrong
Sacramento-
Oklahoma City - Right
Philadelphia-
Toronto - Right
Miami-
Dallas - Wrong
Golden State-Phoenix - Wrong
Denver-
Portland - Right
Charlotte-Los Angeles Lakers - Wrong
Golf - Fowler ended up finishing third, which is pretty darn close when picking a winner in a golf tournament.
WGC-HSBC Champions: Rickie Fowler
NASCAR - Amazingly, Kenseth also finished in third place, which is both incredibly unlikely and somewhat eerie. Guess I need to bet my horse to show.
Quicken Loans Race For Heroes 500: Matt Kenseth
Soccer - Only one right in the tricky Premier League, along with a draw and a disappointing loss by Arsenal. Don't bet footy, boys and girls.
Sunderland-
Everton - Wrong (Draw)
Tottenham-Stoke City - Wrong
West Bromwich-
Newcastle - Right
Swansea City-
Arsenal - Wrong
Tennis - Ah, tennis, my bread and butter. During my gambling career, I've easily won more money on tennis than any other sport. Only two months until the Aussie Open!
Barclays ATP World Tour Finals
Nishikori-Murray - Right
Federer-Raonic - Right
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