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Vancouver Canucks: Is Early Season Success Real or a Mirage?

November 13, 2014, 2:40 PM ET [414 Comments]
Carol Schram
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
Trust Ryan Kesler to almost single-handedly knock the Vancouver Canucks out of their lofty perch at the top of the Western Conference standings.

Kesler had two goals, an assist and scored the shootout winner as the Anaheim Ducks rallied twice from two-goal deficits to beat the Los Angeles Kings by a score of 6-5 on Wednesday night at the Honda Center.

I think the perfect storm of falling to the Canucks last weekend, meeting the hated Kings and giving his Ducks a chance to leapfrog Vancouver back into first place in the West all contributed to Kesler bringing his "A" game on Wednesday. In addition to his offensive success, he also had eight hits and was named the game's first star.

I bring this up because the Canucks' early-season success has brought up a new question for us to ponder: is this team for real?

On the "Yes" side, we have Sportsnet, who slotted the Canucks into No. 1 on their latest Power Rankings.

On the "Maybe Not" side, here's Botchford's assessment of why the good times might not always be so good, over at The Province.

The Canucks' schedule has been easier so far than the last couple of seasons, but that's primarily because it's not as compressed this year. The situation's the same for teams all around the league. Of the 17 games played so far, 10 of them have been on the road—one of the higher totals so far. Vancouver is 7-3 in those games.

The Canucks haven't travelled anywhere in the Eastern time zone yet this season, but they've done a decent job of surviving two tough four-in-six trips—and the second one went better than the first.

Here's Botch's fancy-stats analysis of why we shouldn't get too excited:

The Canucks are seventh in the league in shots-for per 60 minutes. That is good. They are 22nd in shots-against per 60 minutes. That is not good.

Their Corsi-for percentage, the ratio of shots directed toward net for and against at even strength, ranks 22nd. The Canucks are just ahead of the awful Columbus Blue Jackets and just behind the Winnipeg Jets.

In the dawn of the age of hockey analytics, they are telling you the Canucks’ point pace is probably unsustainable. They are saying the Canucks, over the long haul, are probably a middle-of-the-pack team.


For me, these numbers don't account for the fact that the Canucks look like they're improving game by game. Willie Desjardins has enjoyed strong performances right out of the gate from new faces like Ryan Miller, Radim Vrbata and Nick Bonino, but I think he's still getting to know some of the others, and figuring out how to extract the best hockey from them.

This week, the prime example is Shawn Matthias. His ineffective play had him in danger of losing his job earlier in the season. But he has shown steady improvement, and his power move around Ottawa's Mark Borowiecki to score on Tuesday might be the single best play he has made in a Canucks uniform.

Willie came to us with a reputation for getting the most out of his players. As he continues to work with them—and sees for himself what the opposition is dishing out as the team travels around the league—I think there's a real chance that the Canucks can keep getting better.

Will Vancouver be in first place in the Pacific at the end of the season? Probably not. But if the team can stay reasonably healthy, I think they have a real shot at one of the top three playoff spots in the division.



Roster Watch

Brandon DeFazio was returned to Utica on Tuesday, so the Canucks are starting to bounce back from their recent spate of injuries. From Thursday's practice:




Hopefully we'll start seeing some bodies back in the lineup for Friday's game against Arizona. Vrbata can put the Jannik Hansen debate to rest if he draws back in, and I do think that Willie will give Bo Horvat more ice time if he's centering more experienced players.

Wonder what's up with Bieksa. Maintenance day?

Canucks On the Town for Good Causes

Though Wednesday was a day off for the Canucks at the rink, the team got together last night for the annual Sports Celebrities Festival to benefit the Canucks for Kids Fund and Special Olympics. Click here for the photo gallery. This one's my favourite by far:


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