The Colorado Avalanche come to town tonight and with them they bring an array of exciting forwards and underwhelming defensemen. This is a similar setup to what the Avalanche had last year when they were one of the worst possession teams in the league. Has anything changed? Not really, they are 29th overall in Score-Adjusted Fenwick at 44.7%.
So if they won the division with terrible possession last year how come they aren’t doing so well this year? They live and die on their PDO. This year it is right in the middle at 1001, last year it was a very high 1018.
More specifically Semyon Varlamov is playing like a plug not a Vezina nominee. He has gone from an awesome .937% even-strength save percentage last year to a not so hot .901% this year.
The only way to survive consistently terrible possession is red hot goaltending and red hot shooting. The goaltending is ice cold.
The Avalanche are currently in last place in their division and that isn’t a good place to be considering how good that division is. Leapfrogging teams in the Central is going to be a next to impossible task.
This all seems pretty obvious on the surface but the Avalanche as an organization decided that last year’s model was a successful one rather than a lucky one.
I would classify them as a team that should be sellers but they probably just feel like they are going through a stretch of bad luck.
I wrote about Alex Tanguay a couple days ago as a potential trade target. Seeing as though Hockeybuzz is a trade rumor based website today I’ll shift my focus to Ryan O’Reilly and the trade potential with Pittsburgh.
I wrote this about him in Hockey Prospectus 2014-15
Despite always being in the middle of contract squabbles, Ryan O’Reilly continues to exhibit why he is one of the league’s finest two-way forwards. He was able to effectively defend the opposition while staying out of the penalty box -- committing only one minor penalty the entire season -- quite an accomplishment given his tough usage. As a result of his responsible and disciplined play, he won the Lady Byng Trophy. O’Reilly succeeded on the other side of the puck as well: his 1.97 even-strength points per 60 minutes was a career best and he paced the team with an excellent 5.74 power-play points per 60 minutes. The 2009 second rounder also showed the ability to play the wing this year. His versatility, ability to defend, and rising offensive numbers should make him one of the NHL’s best all-around players for years to come.
I like Ryan O’Reilly a lot. He is a player who plays a legitimate 200 feet. He is a natural center who has the ability to shift over to the wing.
My reservations about any potential Penguins Ryan O’Reilly deal is value/cost. He makes 6.0M and he plays on a team that believes they are better than they are. The cost would be high to obtain and he isn’t cost controlled for very long. He has one year left on his deal after the 2014-15 season and then he becomes a UFA. He has a past of being a difficult negotiator and I fully expect him to sign a contract somewhere in the ballpark of 5 years and 35M, perhaps a little higher. Considering the Penguins don’t need a natural center I wouldn’t really want to invest heavily into a converted winger and I wouldn’t feel comfortable with the cost of acquiring him as a season and a half rental.
If the Penguins are going to go all in they should
focus on Taylor Hall (cost controlled, better player). If they want to do something lesser in magnitude they should focus on a guy like David Perron (same term, less cap, less assets to acquire, fills same need).
Ryan O’Reilly, great player, not a great trade option for the Penguins.
Thanks for reading!
Follow me on twitter
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»