First a few quick comments on another 1-goal loss with only 1 goal scored (not counting the empty-netter):
--Decent effort/fairly even game. The game was actually fairly even, and I would even go so far as to say that the Canes had a slight edge in terms of volume of quality chances. Nash had 3 chances in close and the Canes had a couple of the game's most dominant shifts in the 3rd period.
--Jordan Staal. He looked hesitant early but started to look more like himself as the game wore on skating and banging into stuff. Peters going to a Staal/Staal line and tinkering with their wing (1st Gerbe then Lindholm) is probably some indication of the direction he wants to go or at least explore in depth.
--Jeff Skinner. Yesterday was another of those games where it just looks like he has made nothing for progress on the defensive side of the puck despite multiple years in the league. The 1st goal featured a Canadien beating Bellemore off the boards and skating straight to the middle of the circles where Skinner was actually waiting but inexplicably chose to do nothing but watch him score. The 2nd goal featured Jeff Skinner receiving the puck under pressure at his defensive blue line and taking his casual swipe at it to try to knock it forward (instead of willing the puck out of the zone). When he lost the puck 2 feet inside the blue line instead of 2 feet outside it (which would have made the play off sides), the puck was behind ward 3 seconds later.
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Per part 1 of my rambling series, I voted against blowing up the Hurricanes completely and starting over on a 2-4 year rebuilding project. You can read the longer version in part 1 which you can find
HERE. The short version is that I just am not sold on the viability of this model with the volume of certainty surrounding even high-level NHL prospects and the time it takes to develop an entire team from them (reference Edmonton).
I instead vote for identifying a core set of players, trying to shed a couple sizable salaries that are not part of this core and rebuilding around it.
A couple disclaimers that will make this project real challenging for Ron Francis:
1) There are no $ for this. In fact, my guess is that Francis will be pushed to decrease the salary base to better line it up with the attendance reality of a team that has not seen the playoffs since 2009. So early in his GM tenure, Ron Francis gets tasked with a huge challenge to somehow add some talent at the same time he sheds some salary. Note that this challenge does become much easier AFTER next season, when about $20M of salary comes off the books (EStaal $8M, Ward $7M, $Liles $4M, Ruutu kept salary $1M) just counting the big contracts. I have no idea how he is going to build a bridge to there, but he gets a chance with the upcoming trade deadline and next summer.
2) He needs to stay the course with building from within. I am fine with trading a lower round pick or 2 (no higher than 3rd round preferably 4th and below) as part of a deal to improve the team, but he seemed to make a commitment this summer to developing long-term from within when he simultaneously drafted a defenseman in the 1st round, left roster spots open for Canes AHLers to compete for and avoided the temptation to try to patch holes by trading picks for marginal veterans this summer. I am fully onboard with this approach, as I think developing much more depth of at least serviceable NHL players on cheap contracts is the only sustainable way to be competitive in the NHL as a smaller market team.
So with those 2 significant disclaimers upfront, how the heck does Ron Francis get from where he is now to a competitive hockey team without blowing things up completely and starting over?
I think a key starting point is an assessment of where this team is right now. If you think that this team is miles away from where it needs to be to compete and that none of the core players are good enough to be part of a winning team, then it gets dismal real fast. I actually don't think that is the case. I think Jordan Staal's big body with enough speed is a perfect fit for what Peters wants to do. I am holding out optimism that Eric Staal has another gear higher than what we have seen so far this year. He is historically a slow starter, and it is reasonable to expect that his summer setback (lost really) from his abdominal surgery has him on an even slower schedule. Then at forward it comes down to having Skinner and/or Semin find their way in Peters system but with some of their offensive creativity intact. I don't think this set of forwards match up against the best teams in the NHL. And even with the emergence of Rask and the growth of Lindholm, there are issues with depth, but I think the ceiling (not the current level of play) is that of a team that can compete for the playoffs. On the back end, I think the Canes could use 1 more top 4 defenseman ideally who is capable defensively but also able to move the puck and help create offense. I like Bellemore as a depth defenseman capable of filling in on a higher pairing, but he is an offensive drag when he starts playing too many minutes with Canes forwards who need to score especially when his usual partner (Hainsey) leans defense-first too. Unless Ryan Murphy or Haydn Fleury progress real quickly, there are not many options below them for a top 4 2-way defenseman right now.
So with my earlier declaration that the Canes need to cut some $, I will save the "what is the core and what is the cut for another blog" and jump forward to what to do with the UFAs. The Canes have some players of value in this regard that can easily be turned into decent futures in the next couple months. So let's do that 1st:
--Andrej Sekera. With well-rounded top 4 quality play and a cap-friendly $2.8M cap hit, he could yield a good return as a trade rental to a contending team and is the Canes most valuable rental trade asset. Because of the potential value, I would quickly start to assess what he is worth on the open market. Can he yield a decent young roster-level replacement who is about NHL ready? Or maybe a nice collection of higher-end picks/futures in a heated bidding war for teams who need defensive help to make a playoff push? I would do the work on the phone and sort through the options looking for something that you just cannot refuse.
But at the same time, I would talk contract extension and lean toward keeping Sekera unless I can get a true king's ransom for him. Here is why. If you go with my approach to rebuilding, not completely starting over, I think Sekera is the 1 UFA that you just cannot afford to lose. My math says that the Canes are already at least 1 top 4 defenseman short (counting Faulk, Sekera, Hainsey as a 4ish with the right partner). It would be phenomenal if Ryan Murphy rounded out his game enough defensively to be adequate enough defensively to bring his skating and puck-moving to the top 4. But that is a project (not even a projection yet) for a player who right now is a fringe 3rd pairing defenseman who brings offense. And Haydn Fleury definitely projects to be a top 4, but normal math would say that he is at least 2 years out. And anything else in terms of top 4 defensemen in the current mix is virtually non-existent unless someone comes out of the blue. And in terms of adding a top 4 defenseman in another way, it is just incredibly expensive. The Canes would probably have to overpay in an already expensive market to have any chance at a true or even borderline top 4 in the free agent market. And any trade would require significant players going the other way. (I actually have another idea for this, but we'll save that for the "core vs. cut" blog.
So if I am Ron Francis, I do this with Sekera:
1) Start negotiations to see what it costs to keep him if he is even willing to stay. If you start to push for negotiations and get told flat out that he wants to explore free agency, then I guess you have your answer for if you can keep him long-term. At that point, you get what you can sooner rather than later not risking injury and playing a small role in making sure that this team stays in the McDavid/Eichel neighborhood of the standings.
2) At the same time, start identifying interest and market value in case re-signing Sekera is not an option or in case you can get a true king's ransom that you just can't refuse.
==> End result: If he likes Raleigh/the Canes and wants to stay, you re-sign him for 3-4 years at Faulk-ish money.
Past Sekera, I think every other UFA is available for the best bid possible.
--Jiri Tlusty. I like Jiri Tlusty. I think his decent 2-way play and likely reasonable salary next summer could be part of a retooling project. If I cannot get anything of value for him before March, and he wants to stay for maybe a slight pay cut, I would consider it. But for me, it's like this. You can't keep everyone. You have to collect some futures in down years. And it is just so much harder to backfill top 4 defensemen compared to top 6ish forwards. I think his decent 2-way play combined with finishing ability is an incredibly good fit for Pittsburgh on a line with Crosby or even Malkin. Jim Rutherford saw what he did in his magical run finishing Semin passes in 2012-13. You heard it hear first -- Tlusty winds up on Crosby's wing by March.
==> End result: He should yield a decent return and with the ability to cut a few $ for the remainder of 2014-15, collect some futures and leave an easier hole to refill (compared to defense), I think this is where you collect futures.
--Jay McClement. He is a 4th-liner, so it is not like he is going to garner a 1st round pick or similar. But as a veteran depth center who is good in his role taking D zone draws and killing penalties, he should have market value to teams who because of injury or lack of depth need to 8-10 minutes of reliable role player to the bottom of their roster. With the emergence of Rask and Nash, the Canes are suddenly deeper at center which makes him expendable and not at all a must-have part of the future. With Jordan Staal back, it's time to start working the phones to see if a reasonable return can be had sooner rather than later also helping free up the roster to keep waiver players around to be summer options.
--Patick Dwyer. At his price and with a decent ability to kill penalties, he is fine as a 4th-liner. Like Chad LaRose from year's past, the problem is when lack of depth pushes him to scoring lines. If you can get a return for him, he can be traded, but I would not put him in the category of players who must go. This is more of a statement about the volume of NHL-ready depth at forward in the Canes system than anything else.
--Tim Gleason. If he can get a return for him, Ron Francis should move Gleason. The team would save a few $ off his $1.2M salary and make a little more roster room for if it makes sense for some blue line development of Murphy and others to take place at the NHL level later this season.
--Brett Bellemore. If he can get/stay healthy, I have liked Bellemore as the big, physical depth defenseman over veterans Gleason and Harrison since his emergence in training camp last year. This said, he is a depth defenseman, so if injuries and teams shopping for #7ish depth drive up the value for him, I am fine with collecting futures and backfilling the slot next summer.
So when you net it out for the UFAs as part of a retooling project, I just don't see how the team can replace Andrej Sekera and would keep him if he is not set on testing free agency this summer. Past him, I would collect what I can for any/all players who will be unrestricted free agents this summer. If the trade market is weak, and I can't get anything of value for Tlusty AND he is willing to re-sign at a discount, I would consider doing it. At something like $2.2-2.5M/year, he is a right-priced, decent top 6 forward and better than the Canes have in the system right now or what they could win in a bidding war next summer in free agency where players like him price out more like $2.8-$3.5M and would also be more likely to pick another team right now.
That leads into the bigger question which is what to do with the collection of more expensive players like JStaal, EStaal, Semin, Skinner, Hainsey, Ward, Khudobin and Faulk which I will address in an upcoming blog.
What say you Canes fans? Who is in the "just completely blow it up and start over" camp? Am I crazy not to collect what should be a pretty good return on Sekera? What do you think the value of Tlusty and Sekera would be on the open trade market?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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