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Edmonton Oiler Mid-Season Grades |
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Congratulations, you have made it to the half way part of the year. The season might only be 50% complete but the Oilers are 100% finished. Just a couple more months and we’re home free. Well, I think we’re done when the season is over. I just hope the Oilers don’t adopt a points system like they did after WWII which made it almost impossible to shipped back home. I think most of us just want this to be over soon with Edmonton firmly in 30th place so that even if they don’t win the lottery they will still get a fantastic Centerman. Tanking isn’t the mode I thought I would find myself in halfway through the year, but I also didn’t think Scrivens and Fasth would spend the first 35 games of the year playing below ECHL caliber hockey.
Now seems like the perfect stage to start handing out Mid-Season Report Cards for Oilers players. There were 35 players who suited up for the Oil so far this year and I want this process to be as intensive as an Oiler job search so I will make them as quick as possible and potentially superficial.
Player Grades will be determined based on a mix of expectations per player and expectations per role. I will be judging based primarily on which set is the higher standard. That is to say that if the role of the player was to be 2C then he will be judged as a 2C even if his relative age or experience in the league is low. Alternatively if the role is 2C but the player delivered 1C production in the past then I will judge him based on prior levels of production. How cruel am I, right?
As a reminder, the Oilers are dead last in the NHL in terms of points in the standings, 29th in Goals Allowed, and 27th in Goals For. One should not expect many high grades among the group. I have decided to post the marks in order of highest to lowest grade, just as my Canadian Poli-Sci Professor did to our class when he decided we weren’t taking our work too seriously.
A QUICK EXPLANATION OF THE GRADES
As it has come to my attention there are many people who view a D as a passing grade, and while that might be true of someone trying to pass Calculus at the University, I hold significantly higher standards.
Additionally, these grades are for individuals but if we start to look at them as a team you have to start compounding them. If a line consists of 3 players with grades in the C's then what we're really getting is bad mixed with bad mixed with bad. As a line they may grade out significantly worse than their individual marks.
A's: Exemplary Job. Player has exceeded all expectations and is at the top of the NHL for their role.
B's: Average Performance. Player is in the range of "Good to OK". A mark of B+ would suggest slightly above average job. B- slightly below average.
C's: Not Met Expectations. Player has failed to meet benchmark expectations. While still delivering an NHL performance the player has only just done so.
D's: Replacement Level. This is what I would expect from a player operating outside of his depth. This is not Ms. Johnson's Chemistry Class. This is not a passing grade for an NHL player.
F's: Outright Failure. This level of performance does not belong in the NHL under any circumstances. This is below replacement level. The team has been actively hurt by even playing these men.
MARKS
BOYD GORDON: A
He has the 2nd lowest OZ start percentage in the entire NHL and is on for every major faceoff the team takes. His 55.9% success ratio makes him one of the best in the entire league (currently 11th) and he is the anchor of the Oilers’ shutdown line. Given the role asked of him I don’t know what more he could possibly have done.
MATT HENDRICKS: A
He is 4th in the NHL for the lowest percentage of OZ starts and has somehow managed 5 Goals and 10 Points on the season. He is tough, mean, defensively sound, and chipping in a little on offense. He plays on one of the most depended upon “4th” lines in the NHL and gives everything he has every night. A consummate pro.
RYAN NUGENT-HOPKINS: B+
The Oilers’ 1st Line Center has indeed taken his game to a new level by being more aggressive offensively and continuing to be defensively responsible. He leads the team in scoring and is 19th in NHL Forward 5v5 scoring with 21 of his 25 points coming from Evens. In terms of Goal Scoring, RNH ranks 11th among Forwards in the NHL in Even Strength play with all of his 11 goals coming 5v5. He absolutely has another level but hasn’t reached it yet. It’s coming.
JEFF PETRY: B+
He is handedly the Oilers’ best defenseman. He was hilariously (read: idiotically) benched a game early but the cream has risen to the top and now he’s the anchor of the blueline. He exits the zone well, defends very well, is tasked with difficult opposition, and shoots at a better rate than all the other defenders. The only thing he can’t do is ALSO add a significant level of offense while doing all those other things. As a 4D he gets an A, as a 1D he gets a B-. I split the difference.
MARK FAYNE: B
He was everything he was expected to be. He’s a solid but unspectacular Defenseman who provides mistake free hockey for 18 minutes a night. He has been saddled with a Rookie for long stretches of the year and together they face some fierce competition. I like that with those circumstances there are rarely any nights where you notice him out there. As his role increases along with his partner Klefbom there’s a very real chance his mark drops if he cannot add more offense to his game though.
JESSE JOENSUU: B
Exiled to Europe for some reason or another a quarter of the way through the season, Jesse Joensuu was doing a stand up job before then. He was a key member of the shutdown line that was sacrificed every night to the OZ gods. When they sent him away the Oilers neutered the Gordon line until they found Klinkhammer. Without Joensuu they could not trust the line with the same level of defensive zone responsibility. I don’t know why they felt compelled to break that line up.
DEREK ROY: B
Let’s not get too carried away with 5 games worth of grading material, but he’s been good enough in the role of 2C to suggest that he can be an upgrade to both Arcobello and Draisaitl. If he finds chemistry with someone over the 2nd half of the year he can re-establish himself as a legitimate 2C in the NHL.
ROB KLINKHAMMER: B
He has played 2 games and while he’s looked like a perfect fit on the Gordon line we can’t get too excited about such a small sample size. The good news is that he looks very much like a real NHL player based on his career numbers and the analytics like him too. He’s a heavy guy who plays a heavy game and his stick isn’t just an accessory. No telling where this player’s grade will be by the season’s end. His linemates are at the top of the class though.
JORDAN EBERLE: B-
Eberle is significantly off his scoring pace from a year ago at just .625 points per game. For much of the year he appeared either hurt or “not into it.” Recently it feels as though his body language has improved, which is nice if you’re raising a teenager, but more importantly he is on a scoring streak that could push his totals back up to where they belong. He has 5 points in his last 4 games and can salvage an Honest B with a hot 2nd half.
DAVID PERRON: B-
He went from playing 19 minutes a night with one of 2 NHL Centermen to 17 with Draisaitl or Arcobello. His offense dipped but not so much that circumstance and bad luck couldn’t explain it. He still wasn’t as productive as he needed to be but he was still being a pest and will be difficult to replace moving forward. That pick will be hard pressed to become a better NHLer than Perron.
TAYLOR HALL: C+
A high C is a harsh mark given that his traditional scoring line is the exact same as Eberle but in fewer games, but he has earned it. After 2 seasons in the top 10 of NHL scoring at more than a point per game Hall has fallen off a cliff by his standards. 25 points in 35 games for Hall is terrible and he knows it. A knee injury looked like it hampered Hall and he hasn’t fully recovered. No matter what the reason though, he just isn’t performing the way he is capable of performing.
OSCAR KLEFBOM: C+
Rookie Defenseman looked like a rookie early on but is picking up steam fast. He is playing on the 2nd pairing and neither he nor his partner have added much offense. That said, Klefbom has a good shot and he is gaining confidence with it. If his play continues to evolve over the next half-season he could end the year with a great mark. I don’t love his play as much as others but he’s growing on me.
STEVE PINIZZOTTO: C+
I am being extra generous but he was asked to play on a 4th line and mix it up. When he played the Gordon line became a true 4th line and Pini mixed it up out there. He also chipped in for a few goals too. Pretty solid stuff for the guy. Unfortunately him playing meant completely changing the role of his line to accommodate his shortcomings.
IIRO PAKARINEN: C+
I loved everything about this kid when they brought him up but Eakins wouldn’t play him more than 7 minutes a game. He was tough, he shot extremely frequently considering his minutes played. Seeing him was an eye-opener and I’m rooting for him as a prospect.
BENOIT POULIOT: C
Tenacious on the forecheck? Check. A positive possession player? Check. A secondary scorer? Womp Womp. His 9 points in 23 games would have been on pace for 32 whole points in 82 games and he lost several weeks to injury. Now he’s on pace for 25 points. That isn’t even close to what’s necessary from a 2LW. The C is generous.
TEDDY PURCELL: C
He started off great and was doing enough things that early on I felt his reputation as a soft pass-first guy was over stated. However, he has gone long stretches without registering a point. He has separate streaks of 4, 4, 6, and 7 game lapses without points this season already. He was brought in to be a secondary scorer and has failed. The 2 on 0 between him and Roy where he opted to pass 1 last time to ensure no shot would be taken is the Purcell play of the year.
ANDREW FERENCE: C
This is a great mark for Ference who has actually raised his level of play this year. I thought he was dragged around the ice for most of last year and he’s been largely competent this go around. His lack of offense hurts his overall grade as does the fact that under his Captaincy the team has been brutal. Is it fair? No, probably not.
MATT FRASER: C
There isn’t a lot to grade him on with just 5 games in an Oiler uniform but he has 2 goals already and that’s a positive. My concern is his foot speed and skating ability. I’ve noticed them a little too much for my liking already but with 41 games to go his grade can go anywhere. Good shot, plays hard.
ANTON LANDER: C
4 games up and he has 2 assists. Under Todd Nelson he might just have the only coach who would trust him with PP minutes in the NHL and in offensive situations. I hope he makes the best of it. His mark is this low in part because of the him coming in like a broken man in the pre-season and offering no competition for a starting job against Draisaitl or Arcobello. 41 more games seem likely for him. Can he save his status as a prospect?
MARK ARCOBELLO: C-
With a spot carved out for him so that his only competition in Training Camp came from Lander or Yakimov, Arcobello was gifted a spot on the lineup. Even with Perron as his primary linemate he scored at a lower pace than even last year. He was a reasonable replacement level player a season ago. Just below that this year.
MARTIN MARINCIN: C-
Came in almost 20 pounds heavier than when he left at the end of last season because the team wanted him to add muscle. Unfortunately for him very early on he was less effective than he had been when he was playing at a lighter weight. He actually really improved his play after his initial bad start but most people wont remember than. At any rate MacT has a problem with the way he plays (despite being apparently fine with Jultz) and has him in the AHL. More time developing wont hurt though.
KEITH AULIE: C-
This is high praise for Aulie who I expected to be in the AHL all year. He played very low event hockey for the most part. His high end is that of a #6 defenseman so I believe we’ve seen Aulie at his best this year. I wouldn’t be adverse to seeing him play in the 3rd pairing every once in a while to let Nikitin rest or Justin Schultz think about what he’s done.
NAIL YAKUPOV: D+
No grade is harder for me to give than this one for Nail Yakupov. This mark is not for a lack of trying. His shooting percentage is half of what we expect it to be on a normal basis but this is a results business and Yak isn’t getting any results. He is playing with AHL talent and not rewarded with ice time when he plays well but he’s a former 1st overall pick with 9 points in 41 games. Regardless of how I feel I cannot give a higher grade.
LEON DRAISAITL: D+
The “plus” for Leon comes from him maintaining positive possession numbers. Unfortunately they were really only maintained because he was given extremely positive OZ starts. He was tasked (for some crazy reason) with being the 2C of the Edmonton Oilers as a 19 year old Rookie. He failed at it. This mark is not the mark of a bust. It is the mark of someone forced to skip an entire grade level for no reason. He will be a gem of player, just not this year. They sent him back. It was the right call.
BOGDAN YAKIMOV: D+
He played in 1 game and obviously wasn’t ready. The plus comes from what we saw in training camp where he pushed himself up the depth chart as high as possible. I like Big Yak. If he turns into an NHL player I will be excited.
JUSTIN SCHULTZ: D
This grade, as it turns out, was the only D he provided all season. Thrust into the role of 1D until most recently when he was busted down to the 3rd pairing, Justin Schultz has failed both himself and his team. He refuses to shoot either 5v5 or on the Power Play. He is not providing the level of offense needed from someone who plays his minutes and he lacks awareness/ability to defend effectively in his own zone. This experiment has failed. He might be salvaged as a winger.
TYLER PITLICK: D
The D is for Doctor. He’s injured yet again, this time with a lacerated spleen. Call it bad luck, call it injury prone. Whatever it is, I don’t want it. He has 1 point in 14 games but he hits hard and skates well. He has NHL tools but cant put it together. I wish he would because it would be easy to love the player he could be. Get well soon, Tyler.
NIKITA NIKITIN: D
The stats guys said his deal was terrible the minute it was announced, boy were they right. Nikitin, when he’s healthy, is prone to stultifying brain cramps like blind passes to the front of his net with loads of pressure. He also mixes in a few blown assignments and poorly timed pinches. That’s when he’s healthy. The rest of the time his wonky back keeps him out of the games and has opened the door for the Oilers to play even worse players in his place. But once every 7-8 games you see the GOOD Nikitin, and that makes you question why he can’t play like that all the time. A healthy 2nd half could raise his mark to the C level, but I have my doubts.
DARNELL NURSE: D
There is nothing wrong with not being ready for the NHL while still being eligible for Jr Hockey. He played in a couple of games and got his feet wet but it was clear that neither he nor his coaches were overly comfortable out there and that’s fine. By now everyone should know my thoughts on Nurse. He was Canada’s best blueliner at the WJC and should become an incredible NHL player one day. He has all the tools to be a special.
LUKE GAZDIC: D
I feel for the guy because his shoulder surgery has made him more of a liability than normal. He does a few things really well (like punching people in the face) but he doesn’t really fit in the lineup anywhere if the Gordon line is shutting people down and Lander/Yak line is trying to add some kind of offense. Because of that his mark suffers. This team wasn’t built with a place for him to really play.
BRAD HUNT: D-
He is too small and not defensively responsible enough to play in the NHL. He should probably be the 8 or 9th defenseman on the team’s depth chart but a prior relationship with the GM made him a call-up ahead of superior players. His slapshot is great and he knows how to use it. That is his best weapon and truly his only weapon at the NHL level. AHL All-Star though.
WIL ACTON: D-
He should never have been with the team last year and it was criminal he played 3 games with them this year. He is not an NHL player and probably never will be. I cannot stress enough insanely disappointing it was to see him with the team early on. We should have known where this season was heading when we saw him make the team out of camp despite being the club’s 7th best C in training camp.
BRANDON DAVIDSON: F
He has such a great story that it pains me to judge him this way, but he doesn’t actually bring any element to the Oilers. He wasn’t great in his own end, he wasn’t fast, he didn’t play overly physical, he doesn’t have a lot of offense. He’s just a guy. I hope that whatever it is that makes him successful in the AHL will one day be special enough to carve out an NHL job though.
VIKTOR FASTH: F
He was supposed to be the 1B of this team. He was supposed to be a competent Backup who would challenge for 40 starts. Sadly he has been one half of the biggest failure of this season. His .886 sv% through 16 appearances is unbelievably bad. He was given every opportunity to prove he was an NHL starter and earn a job either with the Oilers or somewhere else next season as he is a pending UFA.
BEN SCRIVENS: F
There is no question in my mind that the reason Dallas Eakins lost his job was the awful play of Ben Scrivens. He was the 1A and had played reasonably well with a really bad Oilers team the season before. Instead of making game-saving stops he was making game-breaking gaffes. He let in terrible, terrible goals for the first 30 games of the season and only started playing better when the season was out of reach. Even now he has a Save Percentage under .900 in a league where .915 is just average. He let down everybody in the organization and killed the season along with his partner Fasth. He is incredibly bright and community conscious but if he can’t stop the puck then none of that matters.
SUMMARY
35 men have suited up for the Oilers this season and only 4 of them gave better than an average performance. Of those 4, the two highest marks belong to 4th liners kicking the snot out of their role. This is the report card of a brutal team being brutal.
Using the standard GPA formula where an A=4.0, A-=3.7 and so forth and creating a mark of 0.5 for my fake D- scores the overall GPA of the Oilers rounds out to a 1.88. This is roughly C- with distinction. It can be broken down further as such:
First Line: 2.77 Average (B-)
Middle Six: 1.85 Average (C-)
Fourth Line: 2.45 Average (C+)
Defense: 1.59 Average (D+)
Goaltenders: 0.00 Average (F)
If we look at only Oilers who are with the team right now we get an even 2.00 GPA or a C Average.
For the 30th ranked team to even have a C Average is pretty good but the failure of the team comes from its struggles starting in the net outwards and below average performances from players tasked to fill the middle 6 forward spots. Less than impressive seasons from Eberle and Hall are not helping to mask the failures of the people below them on the depth chart.
As it turns out, writing this was more intensive than an Oiler job search. You get a gold sticker for making it to the end. Good job. Have this Gold Sticker.
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