Well what was pretty early in the season has now become the mid-way point really quickly. After tomorrow night's game in Dallas, there will be more of the season played than there is left.
This has been a season of optimism, angst and a lot of frustration from Sens fans, and that changes from day to day. There are those out there who believe making the playoffs is important this season and that steps should be taken to make the team better now. There is another faction who thinks that the Senators have a good young core and to mess with that now would be jeopardizing the future. And then there is the final segment, the one that is very disillusioned about the direction of the franchise and are pretty much angry at everyone all the time. As you may read this you know what category you belong in, and I know some of you straddle the lines at times.
But as we reach the midway point of the season, I think it is pretty clear that the Senators team as it exists right now is not a playoff calibre team. There are simply too many holes to fill, and too much ground to make up in the second half. As I have done after each 10 game segment, here is the adjusted standings where each team in the Eastern Conference sits after 40 games played:
Since the start of the season, I have gone with the number of 12...in terms of points that a team needs to average over every 10 game span to be virtually assured of a playoff spot. Of course there are ebbs and flows in every season, and if the playoffs were to start today 12 wouldn't be enough. The Senators are averaging 10, and that is simply not enough.
So the Senators will essentially need to make up 9 points and pass three teams in order to make the post season. Not impossible, but also highly unlikely. Why? Because night to night the performance isn't consistent enough to make anyone think they are capable of reeling off the 7 or 8 game winning streak that would be needed to get them back into touch with the chase group, let alone the playoffs themselves. It looks like the 8 teams are starting to distance themselves, and with the way the Leafs are sinking it could be just a couple of days before they join the Senators. If there was going to be an alteration to the current playoff teams, you would have to think Boston might be able to track down Florida...but I digress.
How have the Senators fared against themselves when you compare each 10 game segment so far this season?
As you can see, the Senators have been getting better in terms of the possession stats under Dave Cameron, but quite often they are contrarians because they have a much better record when they are "out-possessed" as opposed to when they have the edge or are at least even in Corsi at 5 on 5.
Obviously the big factor in the slide has been the lack of efficiency on the power play, which was in or around the top 10 through the first quarter but has slid to 20th at the midway point.
INDIVIDUAL THOUGHTS AT MID-TERM
Rather than give each player a grade that is purely subjective and could be based on any number of different criteria, I will simply give a thought or two on each player on the roster. These are my opinions and I am sure there will be a lot of agreement, and almost as much disagreement. But that is what this is all about, so have at it.
Craig Anderson - Backbone of the team so far and the main reason that the Senators (for better or worse) aren't in the thick of the McEichel sweepstakes. Huge bounce-back year that I wasn't sure was in the cards heading into this season.
Robin Lehner - Failed opportunities. Lehner started the season as pretty much a 1A in the platoon situation. While Anderson seized the opportunity, Lehner faltered at times and has taken the back seat again for the most part.
Erik Karlsson - Still trying to find his way in his own zone, and might be trying to do too much offensively. Might need to take a step back and re-focus his energy to what helps the team best. Has started to turn that corner under Cameron, and should continue to improve with a consistent partner.
Marc Methot - Who? A completely frustrating first half for the defenseman who played just a handful of games due to injury in a contract year. Frustrating for the player, team, and fans alike. Hopefully a turnaround in the second half and a new contract to boot?
Jared Cowen - Sluggish start had him under the gun. Since then he has been pretty solid but not spectacular, which is what they need him to be. Still prone to mistakes, but still a young, developing player.
Cody Ceci - Continues to improve, and forms a pretty solid 2nd pair with Cowen. Also still learning the game so will make his mistakes as well.
Chris Phillips - Overplayed for what he can give. I still contend he can give you 12 solid minutes, but when you play him 20 you are going to get 7 or 8 where you hold your breath and hope.
Mark Borowiecki - Pleasant surprise. He skates better than I gave him credit for (although he still won't be confused with Mike Hoffman) and he gives a bit of nasty. Needs to pick his spots better though, because he is prone to the bad penalty at inopportune times.
Eric Gryba - He is what he is...Probably can replace what Phillips is now when Phillips leaves, but is not more than a 5/6/7. But he seems to know that and doesn't try to do too much too often.
Patrick Wiercioch - Still can't seem to get consistency. Often has solid possession numbers but seems to always leave you wanting more.
Kyle Turris - Seemed to get worn down in the 1C role in December, but the slowdown in the scheudule between Christmas and the first week of January seems to have given him some legs back. Still more of a 2C though and needs help up the middle.
Clarke MacArthur - Prone to stretches of brilliance and streaks where he will disappear. The jury is still out on whether he can be consistent enough to be 25-30 goal scorer or if 25 is the ceiling.
Mark Stone - Will score some goals in the league and has a really quick stick that he uses to steal pucks that most players wouldn't get to. Smart and knows where to be on the ice, and his skating isn't pretty but getting effective. Snakebit for much of his time on the first line, can play anywhere in the lineup.
Mika Zibanejad - Flashes of brilliance following a very mediocre start. Developed good chemistry with Hoffman and Ryan, and benefitted from that combination. Still needs to shoot more and develop consistency in the faceoff circle to be a legit top 6 forward and top 2 centre.
Bobby Ryan - Was a nomad through much of the start of the season, but settled down when teamed with Hoffman and Zibanejad. The line was the best on many nights after Turris slowed down. A broken finger probably limited his ability to shoot or he would have more than the 12 goals he has now.
Mike Hoffman - Breakout. Finally got a chance to play with skilled players and he has raised the level of his game. One of the best stories of the season, considering a team could have had him for nothing last year on waivers. The Senators dodged a bullet on that one.
Alex Chiasson - Came over in the Spezza trade, has been serviceable but not much else. After 6 goals in his first 18 games and leading the team in goals for a lot of that time, he has scored just 1 in his last 20. Needs to find an identity, because he is one of the guys who is "just there".
Curtis Lazar - Breath of fresh air. You can't help but like the kid who always has a smile on his face. Struggled to find the back of the net, but plays a Mike Fisher type game in that he can contribute even when he isn't scoring. The offense will come in time, but still getting his feet wet.
Erik Condra - Sat for a lot of the first quarter, but has found a role in the bottom 6. In the last year of his contract he might not be brought back because the Senators have too many similar players.
David Legwand - Veteran centre was brought in to insulate the middle of the lineup. Has had to play lower in the lineup than he is accustomed to and his inclusion on the power play has ruffled a lot of feathers. Still, his 9 power play points are second on the team to Karlsson.
Milan Michalek - A gamble by Bryan Murray that hasn't really paid off. Michalek has taken a back seat and plays on the 3/4 line, depending on the night. Has just 3 even strength points this season.
Zack Smith - One of those bubble guys that the Senators have too many of. Gritty but the organization (especially Paul MacLean) seemed to have higher expectations offensively than I think he is capable of.
Jean-Gabriel Pageau - Probably should have made the team out of camp but contract issues got in the way. Got his opportunity with injuries to Chris Neil and Zack Smith, and hasn't hurt himself. For those expecting offense from him it is a disappointing start, but he has fit in nicely and added some speed and grit to the lineup for a small player. It was an adjustment for him, and expectations might be too high, but the fan base loves him.
Chris Neil - Mind is still willing, but the body is quickly becoming unable to keep the pace of today's NHL. Plays with heart and soul, but his effectiveness is on the decline. Quickly
Colin Greening - The bane of many peoples existence because of his inflated contract. Needs a fresh start somewhere else.
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