The NHL trade deadline is now just three weeks away, and the biggest decision facing the Ottawa Senators in that time frame is what they are going to do with Marc Methot.
So with that in mind this post will be a case study in exactly what he brings. I enter this with the hypothesis that he brings enough to be a legitimate number 2 defenseman and makes Erik Karlsson better, and for that reason alone he is probably worth the $5-$5.5M over 5 or 6 years he is looking for and will be able to get on the open market if he reaches that when he is eligible to become a UFA in July.
First of all, Methot's stats alone
Obviously, Methot isn't around for his offensive prowess. He has 8 goals and 31 assists in 136 games as a Senator. He is a +6 in his parts of 3 seasons in Ottawa. Even though he gets almost 0 time on the power play, he has just 4 power play points (all assists) in his Senators tenure. So Methot averages about a quarter of a point per game at even strength, for about 20 ESP in a full season. That is not exactly mind blowing.
Next, lets look at his ability to defend....
One of the best stats to determine this is the Corsi Against, and I will look at it per 60 minutes of ice time. Over the last 3 seasons, Methot is in the middle of the pack when it comes to this.
This comes with a 52% offensive zone start over the three seasons.
The Karlsson Factor
Now this is the tough part to call. Is Methot a beneficiary of playing with Karlsson or does Methot make Karlsson better?
The stat that best shows that is WOWY - With or Without You, developed by David Johnson of stats.hockeyanalysis.com. First, lets look at Methot's WOWY over the past 3 season
Rather than copy all of the graphs I will let you click the link if you wish
to have a look for yourself click HERE
In reality, Methot hasn't really played with any defensemen other than Karlsson or Eric Gryba for enough time to qualify to fit on the graphs, so the full table can be found HERE. One thing that stands out is that Methot's defensive zone starts skyrocket when he is not playing with Karlsson. As a result, and I know it is a big generalization, but Methot is better playing with Karlsson than anyone else on the blue line, based on the stats that tend to drive possession.
Now, is that due to Karlsson or Methot himself?
Look at Karlsson's WOWY
...the fact is that by the numbers, Karlsson isn't markedly better when he plays with Methot than when he plays with, for instance, Jared Cowen. The biggest difference between Cowen and Methot as partners for Karlsson comes in Corsi For, but in terms of actual production at both ends of the ice the circles that indicate Cowen and Methot pretty much overlap.
Despite my inclination by watching the games is that Methot's return has made Karlsson a much better player, the fancy stats don't support that assumption. The other big change in the franchise has been the coaching change that seems to have more of an impact, at least on Karlsson, than Methot.
On the PK
Methot's other big value is on the penalty kill, so how effective is he on the PK? Methot has been on the ice for 6.3 power play goals against for every 60 minutes shorthanded. That is the third worst on the team behind Karlsson and Cowen. Bottom line...good penalty killer but not great.
Cost of Replacement/ Comparable
The fact is, the Senators need someone who is capable of playing 17 minutes at even strength beside Karlsson as well as playing special teams. Ideally someone who can put up 40 points or more as well. Methot is almost in that spot as a default because the Senators don't have another option right now. However, I took a look at 11 other defensemen that I though could fill a similar role, or even better, than what Methot gives right now. Not all are available on the market, and are in different stages of their career and/or contract, but just serve as a reference, to see how Methot stacks up:
and graphically...
and in terms of salary/contract
as you can see, MacDonald and Orpik are the exceptions rather than the rule when it comes to salaries for primarily defensive defensemen, although the trend for salaries is upward. If Methot were to come in somewhere around the Emelin level I think that would be a good move for the Senators, but obviously he wants more and they are even willing to give him more than that.
Conclusion
Methot might very well get the $5M over 5 or 6 years that he is looking for on the open market, but for a team like the Senators to sink that kind of money into a player like Methot is an awfully big risk. In a vacuum I would say that it wasn't worth taking, but that also means either A) trying to fill that void internally, which I am not sure is possible right now; B) going to free agency to replace him, with the likelihood of finding a long-term bargain unlikely or C) trading for someone who can fill the role, which would not only cost probably just as much in terms of salary but also another key piece(s) of the existing team.
Teams often have to overpay for UFA's and although he is probably not worth what he is asking, if the Senators want to maintain rather than regress in the 2D spot they probably have to ante up the dough. You just have to wonder if the inevitable regression is really deep enough to warrant the price tag.
I have flipped back and forth on this topic throughout the preseason and into the season. I thought before the season started that $5M was a barrier the Senators shouldn't cross, and even though the early season struggles without him made me question that, I think the coaching change might have more to do with it than Methot's return.
I would have to say as crunch time comes that unless the price tag comes down a little more than a Target liquidation sale, possibly to the range of $4.5M, then the best course of action is to get what you can for him at the deadline and hope that an out of work veteran might come in for a short term small-money contract in the summer just to stay in the league, or that Frederik Claesson is ready to assume at least part of that role next season and live with the growing pains.
OR
Wait for a team that is up against the cap to have to make a trade during training camp like the Bruins and Hawks did with the Islanders. That is also risky because if you pin your hopes on that and whiff, there is a big hole in your lineup. But if you are saving that role in hopes of Claesson, then there is the whiff chance anyway.
***images are from www.war-on-ice.com except the bad spreadsheet which I pulled from NHLnumbers.com and crudely fashioned myself***
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