I had an interesting exchange on Twitter yesterday with a guy whose opinions I generally respect, but who also tends to default to defense of Stan Bowman in most instances.
OK, now’s when I should warn you: this blog will not be suitable for the faint of heart or the die-hard Stan Bowman/front office defenders.
You’ve been forewarned.
So this guy was tweeting back and forth with me about the Winnik and Sekera deals yesterday before he remarked, essentially, that Dean Lombardi had overpaid for Sekera.
Well, that reminded me of a similar statement I heard back in the Spring of 2012, pretty much three years ago to the day: how Lombardi had “overpaid” for Jeff Carter.
The Party Line at that time was the Kings would be “saddled” with Carter’s contract for years, he was injury prone, the price of a player, a 1st round pick (a late one), and a prospect was “way too high.”
Two Stanley Cups (in three short years) later, how’d that work out for Lombardi? How’d that line of reasoning work out for those who defended Stan Bowman/the Hawk front office choosing not to pay the aforementioned price?
Now, there are the ostriches out there who refuse to acknowledge that the Hawks were even in the bidding for Carter. But . . . I am 99.9% certain they were. Just as the same people refused to acknowledge (after the fact) that the Hawks were in the bidding for Ryan Kesler this past summer.
Yet, these same people, many of them at least, also continue to lament how, now approaching a decade after the departure of Robert Lang, the Hawks lack a second line center.
So if your Heroic GM was not in the bidding for Carter and Kesler, two guys who fit the description of second line NHL center to a T, what exactly has he done?
Just hand out inflated contracts to existing, and in some cases, over-hyped Hawk players?
Really, if he is not, as some have vehemently maintained, in these pursuits for players who could legitimately help the Hawks, then why not?
See, I’m willing to give Bowman and the Hawk front office some credit.
I think they do sniff around and even bid on good players that potentially fill roster needs when they come on the market. I just think, as I hear over and over, they’re too often a day late and/or a dollar short when it comes to closing the deal.
The Hawks were in the bidding for Sekera, but, as my source on it later messaged me, “Stan chose not to match LA’s offer. Again.”
Understand, what Pittsburgh paid for Daniel Winnik and L.A. for Sekera yesterday is not an overpay when you finally understand that is the market price for improving your team.
You want to get better at the deadline this year? Here’s what it costs. And that price is determined by what other teams—your competition—are willing to offer. Think they’re stupid?
Dean Lombardi has been willing to step up at least a couple of times the last few years and “overpay” in the estimation of some of the Hawks’ armchair GMs—and he’s been vindicated by two parades in the last three summers.
To which we will next hear: “The Hawks didn’t, and won the Cup in 2013.”
Hey, you know what, they did.
With: Jonathan Toews, Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp, Marian Hossa, Duncan Keith, Brent Seabrook, Niklas Hjalmarsson, Dave Bolland, Marcus Kruger, Bryan Bickell, Ben Smith, Corey Crawford.
All players acquired before the current regime took over.
Sure, Andrew Shaw, Dan Carcillo, Brandon Saad, Nick Leddy, Johnny Oduya and Michal Rozsival were added under Bowman. But the 2013 Cup doesn’t happen without the first group of players, does it?
And could have happened without the second.
So, no, Bowman’s approach has not been vindicated by that Cup.
The other thing I heard was the name of Kyle Quincey thrown out as an example of an overpay that “didn’t pay off” for Detroit. Yes, Ken Holland traded a late first round pick for Quincey a couple of years ago? No, the Wings haven’t won a Cup since.
But the deal hasn’t exactly destroyed the Wings either. Quincey is still playing for them in a top 4 role, and oh by the way, the Wings have the same record as the Hawks do this season.
Don’t mortgage the future. That’s the mantra that gets repeated this time of year over and over again.
Well, think about this, between 1998 and 2010, in terms of first round draft picks, the “future” has been: Mark Bell, Adam Munro, Steve McCarthy, Tuomo Ruutu, Anton Babchuk, Seabrook, Cam Barker, Mikhail Yakubov, Pavel Vorobiev, Jack Skille, Toews, Kane, Kyle Beach, Dylan Olsen, and Kevin Hayes.
Almost all drafted in the top half of the first round (as opposed to the bottom half where the Hawks have picked since then and likely will next year).
Of those, at least half can be called flat out busts.
Why? Bad drafting? No, more likely because the NHL drafts players at age 17, typically 3-4 years before they enter the league full time. Like major league baseball, NHL drafts are more of a crap shoot. So all this “value” attached to a late first round draft pick is kind of laughable.
The future? Go back and trace through, as I did a couple of weeks ago (it’s buried on one of my comment threads), what Bowman has to show for all the draft picks and prospects accumulated in the trades of: Dustin Byfuglien, Andrew Ladd, Kris Versteeg, Brian Campbell and Troy Brouwer.
Go back and track what the Hawks have today, and what they got in subsequent transaction involving players acquired in those deals.
Are you ready for the answer?
Philip Danault and Gustav Forsling.
That’s it.
The future?
The future for the Hawks looks like another talent sell-off this summer because of a salary cap conundrum that can’t be laid, this time, at the feet of Dale Tallon. No, Bowman has handed out over $30 million in annual cap hit to four players—Toews, Kane, Crawford and Bickell. And nearly another $12 million to Seabrook and Sharp.
Yes, let’s give Bowman the benefit of the doubt on the Byfuglien, Ladd (although having to deal him was forced by someone—and not Tallon—failing to account for contract bonuses), Versteeg, Campbell and Brouwer deals. The whole league knew the Hawks were over a barrel.
But they won’t know that this summer? Hello?!
The future?
Let’s talk about the immediate future, which for the next 12 weeks or so, until the 3rd round of the playoffs (if the Hawks could actually get there) does not include Chicago’s best offensive player, Patrick Kane.
This team had not exactly been filing the nets with rubber or winning a lot before the injury.
If anyone in Chicago is serious about getting anywhere in the playoffs, with or without Kane, it wasn’t going to happen without Bowman pulling the trigger on a deal anyway. The team really only has three centers as it is, the defensive third pairing has been a trainwreck most of the season—and now Oduya is hurt.
By now, everyone and their brother knows the Hawks are at least “interested” in Arizona center Antoine Vermette. They are also allegedly interested in Edmonton D Jeff Petry.
There are still assets out there that can fill glaring holes on an otherwise loaded team. Enough, maybe, to get the Hawks to the 2nd or 3rd round when Superman might emerge from the phone booth. Hey, now ya got something.
But let me repeat, there is going to be market price for those players that is determined by what other teams are willing to pay. And the evidence suggests, at least in the case of the Kings, these are not necessarily overpays.
I can pretty much guarantee you this, if the Hawks “stand pat,” it would take a miracle just short of the Resurrection of Jesus for them to win the Stanley Cup this year.
And if anyone thinks that winning another Cup becomes more likely after paring $5-10 million in salary this summer and plugging in some of the highly touted Rockford ice Hogs, put the pipe down.
Those who ignore history are doomed to repeat it.
I recall a lot of the “experts” being so willing to move out the “slow,” “unexciting,” “meathead” Brouwer in 2011. The same people who now rejoice in “Teuvo Time” and warn not to “mortgage the future.”
But Brouwer had better offensive numbers in junior and AHL hockey than all of the current Ice Hogs, including the Messianic TT.
I don’t doubt that Teravainen, Danault, Mark McNeill and Stephen Johns will all be NHL players of some kind. Great. But there is zero proof they will be as good or better than those they will replace: Brad Richards, maybe Sharp, maybe Oduya.
And hey, here’s a thought, if the market is so crazy for talent right now—precluding you from being a buyer—why not be a seller? Especially when you will have zero leverage in the summer?
What is the plan? The supposed future all stars in Rockford? And that’s it?
Or is it time for Bowman and the Hawk front office to stop defaulting to a core that is getting older, and the promise of prospects and draft picks that never gets quite fulfilled?
Go out and get Antoine Vermette. And Petry, or similar. Win now.
Sort it out this summer. That’s what winners like Dean Lombardi and Ken Holland have done and still do.
I’m sure the message board comments will be . . . breathtaking.
JJ
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