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Thoughts on the blue line |
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I have had multiple blog ideas get away from me before I could get them to here simply because of some busy days lately, so let me take a few minutes to pull a couple blogs into a summary...
With Andrej Sekera's departure at the trade deadline to Los Angeles, I think the blue line just became Ron Francis' biggest challenge in 2 ways. First, the Canes are light on "top half of the roster" kind of depth in the system to fill slots in the next 1-2 years. Second, it could be real challenging to build out a blue line for the 2015-16 season with enough true top 4 talent.
Some will argue that the Canes stats suggest they are actually shorter on offense than on defense, but I think that misses the point of how interrelated these are. A prime example was the Hainsey/Bellemore pairing from last year. The duo was actually pretty good at defending in their own end and avoiding lapses playing without the puck. The problem was that they spent too much time playing without the puck which eventually just bites you. I really think that the be competitive next season, the Canes will need to add 1 true top 4 defenseman to replace Sekera. Ideally, this player will bring enough ability to generate offense.
But that project is really more for this summer when the trade markets open at the draft and then the free agent market shortly thereafter.
The matter at hand is more about assessing some of the Canes youth now playing at the NHL level. Here are my thoughts in bullet point form:
*At a very basic level, I think the depth defenseman of today's NHL looks much more like Danny Biega or Ryan Murphy than Rasmus Rissanen or Michal Jordan. In the old NHL, 3rd pairings were often stocked with big, physical defenseman with marginal skating ability. But this was an old NHL that more or less allowed tackling, fairly blatant hooking and other things that kept fast guys from taking advantage of slow guys. And this was also a time when 4th and even oftentimes 3rd lines were stocked with big, grinding type forwards with limited offensive ability. And in a league where fighting was commonplace, you sometimes needed to use 1 of those bottom 2 defense slots to roster someone who could help with the rough stuff. Those days are gone. Fighting is nearly gone from the game. Obstruction is actually a penalty, so you have to skate to defend. And good teams are stocking 3rd and even 4th lines with players who can skate and score.
Put more simply, the NHL is a skating game and teams that ice 3rd pairings that cannot skate and move the puck get preyed on.
So while I am not sure if Ryan Murphy's upside ever makes him an every night top 4 defenseman, I think he is the kind of player that you want to develop to fill a #5 or #6 D role. We are only 3 games deep into seeing Danny Biega, but he too fits the bill as potentially being a depth defenseman who can skate and move the puck. I just don't see Rissanen or Jordan as mobile enough to be more than call-up depth at least on a good NHL team.
* This said, I think there could very well be a spot for Tim Gleason's return. He had a very good 2014-15 season in a reduced role that saw him as the PK half of a bottom pairing. He played a simple game and was part of a very good penalty-killing unit. I could see him being the stay-home half of a 3rd pair that features 1 of the kids that can move the puck.
* John-Michael Liles could prove to be 1 of the deciding factors for the 2015-16 season. My math goes like this:
---After another playoff miss, with decreasing attendance and with the hole left by Andrej Sekera's departure, the Canes have more holes to fill on defense than money to fill them.
--I count Faulk and Hainsey as top 4s for next season. I am on record as thinking it is imperative that the Canes add 1 top 4 D to the mix. (I think that is more likely to happen via trade than free agency.)
--Even if that all happens, who is the 4th top 4 defenseman. The system is better stocked after last summer's draft, but next year is too early for that to help. I don't see how Francis will be able to add 2 true top 4 D with his budget.
Enter John-Michael Liles. He has quietly been playing pretty good hockey and grown into a bit bigger role on the Canes. And he is in a contract year in 2015-16. If I look at all of the players currently on the Canes roster and in the system focused only on the 2015-16 season, I think Liles has the greatest potential to fill out a top 4 slot on the blue line. In some ways, I guess you could argue that that in itself is a problem, but just maybe he is recovering from his stay in Toronto and building toward a return to where he was prior.
* His unrestricted free agent status could see him go elsewhere if a better opportunity presents itself, but I still like Brett Bellemore as a serviceable NHL depth defenseman. He has had an incredibly disjointed season with injuries and rotations in and out of the lineup, but through all of it, he has been decent.
* Could Hainsey and Faulk work? They had a couple awful games shortly after the Sekera trade, but are trending better of late. Faulk's biggest gains in 2014-15 have been the huge strides he has taken offensively. Early on it was point production driven through a greater propensity to shoot and improvement in terms of finding shooting lanes and getting pucks to and on net. But more recently, Faulk's ability to carry the puck has really stood out to me. If the next phase of his development sees an increase in his offense generation carrying and moving the puck then just maybe more of a stay-home type like Hainsey can work.
* So when I look toward 2015-16 and the Canes blue line, I come up with:
Hainsey/Faulk
Liles/______
Murphy, Bellemore, Biega?, Gleason?
It is possible to add veteran depth if necessary for the 3rd pairing, but I think the key spots are really the 1 that Liles is currently sitting in and the 1 next to him. Is there a trade to be had to add a youngerish right shot top 4 D with size and enough all-around ability? Awhile back I tossed out a bigger trade with Jeff Skinner going to Florida to provide raw scoring and power play help in return for Erik Gudbranson who is improving but still really a #5 on a pretty decent Panthers blue line. I have no idea if Gudbranson could be pried out of Florida; regardless, I think he is the kind of player that Ron Francis would be looking for -- a young but reasonably experienced defenseman who is either a top 4 or right on the edge of it with upside and of the all-around variety that can play defense obviously but also chip in something offensively.
What say you Canes fans?
--Who else thinks skating and ability to move the puck trumps size in the current NHL?
--Am I crazy to pencil Liles into the 2015-16 top 4?
--If so, how can the Canes possibly add 2 top 4 D this summer?
--Who likes Gleason on a similar 1-year deal as a depth defenseman?
Twitter=@CarolinaMatt63
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