Two days without hockey is far too long. Just like Ek, I got suckered into watching "Thank God You're Here" on Monday night and it was absolutely putrid. I mean, completely terrible. Fortunately, my run-in with primetime network television got me even more excited for the playoffs. San Jose-Nashville is shaping up as the most exciting first-round series, providing two evenly-matched teams with great speed and plenty of firepower. I don't just present the numbers for you to pass over like a deodorant ad in a men's magazine, but I actually break down the numbers and the matchups, giving you the straight beef. Alright, that's enough rambling from me. On to the tale of the tape.
Season Series - Nashville 3, San Jose 1
Oct. 26 at Nashville - Predators 4, Sharks 3
Dec. 9 at San Jose - Sharks 3, Predators 1
Feb. 14 at Nashville - Predators 5, Sharks 0
Feb. 28 at San Jose - Predators 4, Sharks 3 (SO)
The season series is skewed a little, since the Sharks were playing the second of back-to-back games in their first and third meetings, but the teams played a couple entertaining games and every one had a strong physical presence. Nashville is a dangerous team if you make mistakes in the neutral zone, and the Sharks found that out the hard way on Valentine's Day.
Edge: None. It's all ancient history, folks
Offense - SJ: 256 goals, 3.12/game, NSH: 266 goals, 3.24/game
We get into an interesting question right off the bat. The Sharks have more top-end scoring coming from Thornton and Marleau, who combined for 192 points. However, Nashville's productivity is much more balanced. Their sixth and seventh-highest scoring forwards were Forsberg (55) and Arnott (54), compared to Clowe (34) and Grier (33) from San Jose. Which team has the edge offensively? It's very, very close, but Nashville has to get the edge because they don't have to rely on a single person as much. Individuals are usually easy to stop, but entire lines aren't. Quite frankly, if Thornton goes down or doesn't produce the Sharks are in huge trouble.
Edge: Nashville
Defense - SJ: 197 goals against, 2.4/game, NSH: 207 goals against, 2.52/game
It's interesting (and kinda strange) that San Jose and Nashville have the exact same goal differential this season: 59 goals. Neither team plays a boring, lockdown defensive style, but the Sharks don't allow many shots on goal, relying on a physical defense to keep opposing forwards away from the net. On the other hand, Nashville was outshot in 49 games this season, and allowed more shots than any other Western Conference team, keeping their netminders busy. I'm no rocket scientist, but in the game of hockey, where deflections are commonplace, I want to keep the puck as far from my net as possible.
Edge: San Jose
Power play - SJ: 22.4%, 2nd, NSH: 17.4%, 18th
The power play has been San Jose's lifeblood for most of the season, and the club has been guilty of relying on it too much at times. That could be a concern going up a disciplined team like Nashville in the playoffs, where penalties are scarce. However, a strong power play is a huge advantage because most games are tight-checking affairs, decided by a single goal.
Edge: San Jose
Penalty kill - SJ: 83.3%, 14th, NSH: 85.8%, 3rd
Almost like the chicken and the egg, it's been debated heavily ever since man first strapped skates to his feet whether a strong penalty kill will eventually overcome a strong power play, or vice versa. Since neither team has both, the special teams battle comes out as a wash overall.
Edge: Nashville
First line - SJ: Michalek-Thornton-Cheechoo, NSH: Kariya-Legwand-Erat
San Jose has a dynamite first line, and easily one of the best in the league with Thornton feeding the shooter (Cheechoo) and the slasher (Michalek). Their styles mesh well together, and the line carried San Jose down the stretch. Incredibly, the Predators don't have a single 30-goal scorer, and the first line doesn't have the top-end talent or present the consistent threat San Jose's does.
Edge: San Jose
Second line - SJ: Bell-Marleau-Guerin, NSH: Hartnell-Arnott-Dumont
These two lines are so incredibly close, I almost considered flipping a coin. How close are they? San Jose's three combined for 155 points, while Nashville's combined for 159. If Sullivan was healthy the Predators would take this hands-down. But I think they still edge out San Jose because Marleau has only scored 2 goals in his last 14 games, Guerin is nursing a sore groin, and Bell isn't a second-line guy despite late-season strides. Also, Nashville's second unit is better defensively.
Edge: Nashville
Third line - SJ: Pavelski-Brown-Grier, NSH: Fiddler-Forsberg-Radulov
I know Shark fans don't want to hear it, but the third line saw some visible cracks down the stretch. Grier's defensive play dropped off, finishing 11 games with a negative plus-minus after January, compared to only 6 positive, and he had a few lengthy scoring clumps before a late burst in the final two weeks. Pavelski battled injury in the second half after a hot start, and Brown was mediocre most nights. Fiddler is a scoring threat. On a side note, do you think Fiddler's agent ever enters contracts negotiations saying "Time to pay the Fiddler!" If I was his agent, I'd pound that joke into the dirt. Forsberg is always dangerous playing with the speedy Radulov.
Edge: Nashville
Fourth line - SJ: Clowe-Goc-Bernier, NSH: Hordichuk-Nichol-Tootoo
San Jose has a substantial advantage here, and the fourth line was lights-out over the last month of the regular season. Clowe's a beast, Goc is skating well, and Bernier is playing with an edge around the net. Hordichuk and Tootoo don't provide much more than fists, bare or gloved, but Tootoo could cause problems if he starts running around. Nichol is purely an energy guy on a line that can't score.
Edge: San Jose
First defense pairing - SJ: Hannan-Vlasic, NSH: Timonen-Weber
Remember San Jose's top-end forward talent and Nashville's balance? Well, we see the exact opposite on the defensive side. Timonen and Webber combined for 95 points, and they move the puck quickly out of their own end. Hannan and Vlasic might not be San Jose's top defensive unit, but they get the most playing time so they fit the bill. They're both steady, but don't match up to Nashville's top pairing offensively or defensively.
Edge: Nashville
Second defense - SJ: Ehrhoff-McLaren, NSH: Suter-Zidlicky
This is a pretty square matchup. In fact, San Jose's duo combined for 50 points and a +18 plus-minus. Nashville's second pair notched 54 points and a +18. It's almost eerie how the numbers match up like that come playoff time. Anyway, McLaren is the rock of the San Jose defense, and you can bet on the Humboldt Hip crushing a few people. Suter and Zidlicky aren't very big, but they move the puck and play very balanced.
Edge: None, this is an absolute wash
Third defense - SJ: Carle-Rivet, NSH: Hamhuis-Zanon
Quick, name another rookie defenseman who scored 42 points who could be considered a third-unit guy on any other team. Carle and Rivet are the perfect mix of skill and toughness, rounding out San Jose's balanced unit. Hamhuis and Zanon are solid in their own end, and the Preds could always opt for Vishnevski to step in and stir things up. However, this one goes to the Sharks.
Edge: San Jose.
Goaltending - SJ: Nabokov-Toskala, NSH: Vokoun-Mason
It's amazing to have four goalies who are legitimate starters, and each one has carried the mantle for his team this season. Nabokov has stepped up as San Jose's go-to guy, and it could be a concern that Toskala hasn't seen any action in a while. Mason was outstanding this season, but it's Vokoun's team and he improved on last year's impressive numbers. But let's call a spade a spade for a moment. The Sharks dodged a huge bullet last season when Vokoun went down with blood clots, and he'll be motivated after missing out last season. That gives the Preds an edge in an extremely tight category.
Edge: Nashville
Injuries - SJ: Guerin (groin), NSH: Sullivan (back), Smithson (leg)
Guerin has taken some time off resting a sore groin, but he's healthy and ready to go for the playoffs. Mark Smith is also coming off a groin injury, and hasn't played in over two months. Sullivan is out for the Preds, and that's a huge blow to the team since he's one of their most consistent scorers. Smithson is a role player, and he could probably go if the Preds need him.
Edge: San Jose
Toughness - SJ: Clowe, Bell, McLaren, Thornton, Bernier. NSH: Arnott, Tootoo, Hordichuk, Hartnell, Suter
There's a difference between good, smart toughness and bad, stupid toughness. San Jose is a tough squad, without any one-dimensional players who are going to put the team in trouble. That's a valuable commodity in the playoffs, where mistakes are magnified and retaliation is possible on every play. San Jose is much bigger, and tough as nails while being smart about penalties. Also, if things really heat up I'm sure McSorley could take Terry Crisp out.
Edge: San Jose
Coaching - SJ: Ron Wilson, since 2002-03, NSH: Barry Trotz, since 1998-99
There's no way I could say with any certainty which coach is better. Obviously Trotz knows his team, since he's been in Nashville since the beginning, but he's never won a playoff series. Wilson is on his way to becoming a coaching legend, and he's taken teams to every level of the playoffs, never winning a Cup. If they squared off in a fight to the death, I'd side with Trotz because he doesn't have a neck. When betting on a vicious cage match, always go with the guy with the shortest neck. Other than that, I can't tell you much.
Edge: None
Experience - SJ: Guerin, NSH: Kariya, Forsberg, Arnott
Both teams are young, and there are only a few veterans who've seen action in the Stanley Cup final. Kariya and Forsberg have played the game at its highest level, and they won't be bothered by the pressure of a first-round playoff series. Both Arnott and Guerin have sipped from the Cup, even if it was many moons ago playing for the Devils.
Edge: Nashville
Home Crowd - SJ: The Tank, NSH: The Prehistoric Cave?
People show up to Nashville games, right? I'm assuming they do, which already makes the Predators a better franchise than the Ducks, but that's another batch of angry hate mail and slanderous comments for another day. Anyway, no other building south of the 49th parallel matches the intensity or volume of the Tank come playoff time. It should give the Sharks a huge boost when the teams square off at HP Pavilion on Monday night.
Edge: San Jose
Intangibles - Faceoffs and expectations
Puck possession is huge in the postseason, and San Jose edges Nashville on faceoffs, 51.1% to 50.3%. It's not a huge difference, but could be a factor on those late draws deep in an opponent's zone. Beyond that, both teams are facing enormous expectations to succeed, definitely the highest expectations each franchise has seen. Forsberg and Kariya have been through it all, and they're still productive, but they're on the decline. Thornton has a lot to prove, and he has a ton riding on his shoulders. If you saw San Jose's final game against Vancouver you know he's ready to go. Marleau is also facing a personal test, and he's come into his prime. I think San Jose has more to lose, and they'll be playing desperate hockey from the first minute.
Edge: San Jose
Final Tally: San Jose 9, Nashville 7
It's going to be a battle right to the end, and we'll find out which team is best over the next two weeks. These two teams have a lot of respect for each other, and they have two of the classiest fan bases in the league. Unlike "Thank God You're Here", which was harder to digest than a crap sandwich, the Sharks-Preds series should be a treat to watch.
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