The opening round series between the Sens and Habs is really a case of opposites attracting. These are two teams that are very familiar with each other and when they meet, anything can and usually does happen. They are the closest geographical rivals in Canada, and a second playoff series in 3 years will go a long way to making it one of the best rivalries in the league.


GOALTENDING

If there were any more opposite area between these two teams it is in goal. Beginning with the matchup of the starters essentially being the Prince vs the Pauper. On one side, you have the pedigree of a 5th overall pick, World Junior Champion and perennial Vezina candidate Carey Price. On the other you have an undrafted 27 year old rookie whose 2 biggest claims to fame before February 18th was losing his first 14 games at NCAA Bowling Green, and allowing 3 goals in 21 seconds, being pulled 36 seconds into a game earlier this season, Andrew Hammond.

Price is probably the best goalie in the game, and will win his first Vezina this season, would get my vote for the Hart Trophy as league MVP (if I had one). He is the reason the Canadiens were atop the Eastern Conference standings (or at least the Atlantic Division) for most of the season and not fighting with the Senators and Bruins down the stretch. The energy Hammond brought since making his first NHL start is a once in a lifetime occurrence and the Senators rode that wave to a record-breaking comeback and are quite simply the hottest team, with the hottest goaltender, in the league.

The wildcard here might just be Craig Anderson. If Hammond falters early (or worse gets nicked up), you can bet Anderson is just chomping at the bit and will be ready to show that he is still a factor. If the Senators get to Price early (or he gets hurt)and the Habs have to turn to Dutsin Tokarski, they will be finished.

EDGE: On paper Price is the better goalie, with Hammond riding a great wave of momentum. If he can keep it up he is the equal of Price, at least for the moment.

EVEN

DEFENSE

PK vs EK. Two of the last 3 Norris Trophy winners, who both like being in the spotlight. That is the biggest matchup, and the focus will be on the top pairings of Subban and Markov vs Karlsson and Methot. The supporting casts of either team isn't going to blow you away, with young players like Cody Ceci and Nathan Beaulieu, who will be big factors in the future, still getting their feet wet. Both sides have a pretty good blend of the physical (Gryba, Borowiecki, Emelin) and the skill (Wiercioch, Petry), and again this is a pretty even matcup.

EDGE: The way Karlsson has played with Methot since the latter returned to the lineup, he has been one of the biggest difference-makers in the league. If he continues that I am not sure the Habs' Subban will have an answer. Whichever elite defenseman outplays the other will have the edge, and I am betting on EK

SENATORS


OFFENSE

The big question mark here is Max Pacioretty. Out since April 5th with an upper body injury, Pacioretty is far and away the Habs' most dangerous offensive weapon. If he can't go to start the series the Canadiens are going to have to find offense from somewhere and will also put even more pressure on Price.

The Senators have question marks of their own, and that begins with #6. Bobby Ryan hasn't bulged the twine in 12 games and has just 1 assist in his past 10. With the top line of Turris, MacArthur and Stone carrying the weight on their shoulders of late and the "third" line of Pageau, Lazar and Condra providing great energy and timely scoring, the Senators need Ryan, Hoffman and Zibanejad to contribute as well. The Pageau line might very well be the best 3rd line in the league at the moment, but if they have to play as the 2nd line that might not be the best option long-term for the Senators.

If Pacioretty can't go the Senators have a huge edge in depth and offensive potential. If he can, that narrows the gap significantly but the Senators scored more all season.

EDGE: SENATORS


SPECIAL TEAMS

There isn't much to chose between the teams when it comes to special teams, an area that becomes magnified in the post-season. Ottawa has the 22nd ranked power play in the league, one spot better than Montreal. Montreal is the 7th best team on the penalty kill, with Ottawa being ranked 11th.

EDGE: Slightly favoring the HABS


COACHING

Dave Cameron took over in December and the Senators responded to him. They were a different team under Cameron than they were under MacLean, but the results really started to come after Methot's return and Hammond's arrival.

Michel Therrien rubs a lot of people the wrong way, but he has gotten the most out of his team, who on paper shouldn't be a division winner. Having Price doesn't hurt though.

EDGE: There won't likely be an event like the Gryba hit on Eller this time around, and Cameron won't likely bury Therrien like MacLean did two years ago, and coaching won't have as much of an impact this time around.

Call it EVEN


INTANGIBLES

The Senators have something special going on right now. The big question is whether they expended too much energy in making the playoffs and if they will have enough left in the tank for a playoff run. The fact that it is the Habs they are facing probably works to their advantage in that the energy in the buildings will keep them going.

The Canadiens know that as long as Price is healthy, they have a chance to win any game. They were steady all season and consistency is their key.

EDGE: EVEN


PREDICTION

The Habs were dominated by the Senators the last time they met in the playoffs, much to the chagrin of the Bleu, Blanc et Rouge. There are a lot of new faces in the battle, but still a number of familiar names as well.

Neither side can be over-confident heading into this series, but you have to acknowledge that both sides should have some measure of confidence.

This could be one of the best series' of the first round, where there will be a lot of really tight series. It could come down to whether or not the Senators can steal one of the first two in Montreal. If they can, they win in 6. If not, Habs would win a deciding game at home in 7. I am predicting that Ottawa will come home with a split and ride that wave to the upset.

SENATORS IN 6

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