The more I read about this series, and think about it, the more it seems to come down to a couple of issues, and a few key players.
1) Goaltending.
The only goalie I can think of who’s really “stoned” the Hawks in a playoff series since 2009 is none other than Mike Smith.
Not Roberto Luongo. Not Jonathan Quick. Not Pekka Rinne. Not Tuuka Rask. Not Mikka Kiprusoff.
Mike Smith, in the first round in 2012.
But the Hawks had other problems in that series—like losing one of their stars in game 3 to a crazy cheap hit, a suspension to another forward, a defense that played soft, and Corey Crawford’s worst stretch of goaltending as a professional.
I don’t doubt Devan Dubnyk will play well in this series. I also don’t think he’s going to stone the Hawks either—unless the Hawks really “mess” the bed in other areas.
Then it could get ugly. As in: Dubnyk gives up on average a goal a game on the way to a 5-game series win for Minnesota.
As far as those “other areas,” start 190 feet down the ice. Crawford needs to play well.
I heard from a top source this morning that the Hawks love Scott Darling—and not as a back up. That said, no one really knows what Darling’s playoff “norm” is. Is it the Darling of games 1, 2, 3 and 5 of the Nashville series? Or the more human Darling of games 4 and 6?
The best goalie controversy for the Hawks is no goalie controversy, or the one that might exist after the playoffs. Crawford playing well renders the point moot. But it’s really important because . . .
2) Close games favor Chicago
The track record, both this year and years prior, proves it. Chicago knows how to win close games in the playoffs.
There was a lot of nonsense out there about the Hawks only leading games for like 45 minutes of the Nashville series. This is true, but significant portions of that series were played with the score tied.
Nashville really didn’t dominate for long stretches. They dominated for short stretches. But when they dominated, they really dominated.
In games 1 and 6, the Preds lit the Hawks up in the first period. But due to some leaky Pred defense, and Hawk experience, Chicago tied up and eventually won those games.
In games 2 and 5, Nashville lit the Hawks up in the third period and Chicago couldn’t recover.
I don’t think the Hawks can afford to let that happen versus Minnesota, or at least not more than once.
So again, Crawford and/or Darling have to be solid, at least.
3) This series is won or lost in Minnesota’s end
Minnesota relies, somewhat like the Hawks, on initiating the break quickly, with skilled mobile defensemen. But outside of Marco Scandella (definitely) and Ryan Suter (somewhat) the Wild do not have a lot of bruising physical presence on defense. And they have a couple of smallish defenseman who can struggle against bigger forwards.
When you think of the Hawks’ forwards, you immediately think skill and speed. But in truth, what makes the Hawks’ forwards so good in the scoring department is how well they possess the puck and maintain offensive zone pressure through the cycle. Defensemen who know how and when to pinch and where to put the puck along the boards to get it and keep it deep are part of that as well.
This is what Chicago will try to do to focus consistent, withering pressure on the Wild defense and Dubnyk—and keep the Wild from breaking out.
This is where Bryan Bickell, Andrew Desjardins and Andrew Shaw need to deliver. They need to relentlessly pound the Minnesota defense, make them tired and mistake prone—the artillery that softens the beachhead for the ground troops: Hossa, Toews, Kane, Saad, Sharp.
Also, Bickell parking his 235 pounds in front of Dubnyk, as he did on at least one key goal versus Nashville, would help.
To me, this x-factor, along with the play of the Chicago goalies, decides this series.
FINALLY . . .
If you haven’t seen the tape of the KHL forward, Artem Panarin, signed by the Hawks yesterday, here it is.
Reports of Panarin’s physical readiness for the NHL (some say he weighs just 165 pounds) were dispelled here (scroll about ½ way down the page).
I was told this morning the Hawks are “giddy” abhout signing a player who, on tape, might remind some of another Russan winger: Pavel Bure.
This signing, among other recent moves—and rumored moves this summer—indicate that the Hawks are reloading big time for the near future. But that’s also a topic for the summer. Puck drops on Round 2 tomorrow, and I’ll have a preview.
JJ
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