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Game 1: NYR-WAS, Game & Series Preview, Overall Division Finals Predictions

April 30, 2015, 1:26 PM ET [444 Comments]
Jan Levine
New York Rangers Blogger • RSSArchiveCONTACT
The Rangers open their second round - or Divisional Finals - series Thursday at MSG. For the fifth time since 2009 their opponent will be the Capitals. Oddly enough, while last year saw the return of first round divisional matchups, the team found a way to meet four times in the previous five seasons and eight overall.

In case you forgot how the first round against Pittsburgh went since it ended last Friday, here is a good summary video and way to get re-amped for this round.

"4 Down" | 2015 New York Rangers First Round
metrangerfan711



I gave my six keys yesterday. Most of the previews have focused on the match ups of forwards, defensemen, goalies and intangibles. Some of these were touched in my six keys but I will add a bit more flavor below.

Lineups:

New York:

Nash-Brassard-St. Louis;
Kreider-Stepan-Miller;
Hagelin-Hayes-Fast;
Glass-Moore-Sheppard

McDonagh-Girardi
Staal-Boyle
Yandle-Klein

Lundqvist

New PP units:
Kreider-Stepan-St.Louis-Brassard-Boyle
Nash-Hayes-Miller-McDonagh-Yandle

Washington:

Ovechkin-Backstrom-Ward
Johansson-Kuznetsov-Chimera
Burakovsky-Beagle-Brouwer
Glencross-Laich-Wilson

Could see Latta for Glencross and Beagle/Laich switch lines

Gleason-Green
Niskanen-Alzner
Orpik-Carlson

Holtby

Forwards:

New York’s 12 normally would be a bit deeper than Washington's. Zuccarello’s absence creates a hole and impacts that depth, requiring MSL and Fast to move up lines and insertion of Sheppard to the fourth line. This series will require the Rangers' depth to provide scoring, which at times was lacking the first round. The Rangers were the better team five-on-five, as evidenced by their 1.33 five-on-five goals-against-ratio to Washington's 1.08 during the year, blunting the PP advantage to Washington.

For the Rangers, MSL and Kreider need to step up. St. Louis because he is stepping in for and has to provide some of the production in Zucc's absence, especially now with Zucc out the whole round and possibly playoffs with the expected concussion. In addition, he needs to get back to the force he was late last year in the playoff run, which was lacking during the season. Kreider had a big goal in the Pittsburgh series but he at times leaves us wanting more. His size and speed are major weapons but he has to maximize the use of each, especially against a team as big and physical as Washington. For NY to advance, beyond Nash producing, those two, as well as the Stepan line, which includes Kreider’s has to step up.

Washington’s conversation begins with Ovechkin and Backstrom but does not end there. We saw Kuznetsov help win Games 5 and 7 against the Islanders. Ovi’s and Backstrom’s line mate, Wad, had the first goal in game 7 and provides a physical presence. Johansson and Crimera had moments in the first round and round out the second line with Kuznetsov. The bottom-six, save for their physical presence, doesn’t scare you much, though they can chip in offensively. That bottom-six is where NY has an advantage, especially with Hagelin and Hayes on the third line, though now having Fast as opposed to MSL reduces their advantage. The fourth line needs to match the physical play of Washington’s, which will be challenging.

Defense:

The Rangers, with the return of Klein, now have their top-six back. Hunwick did a solid job stepping in for Klein, while he was out, and could replace Yandle if his “mystery illness” raises its ugly head this round. Kelin should be well rested, having missed six weeks, and provides steady play from the backline.

Presuming Yandle is really good to go, his ability to go from D to O quickly will be a key. McDonagh, Girardi and Staal will need to use the Johnny Boychuk model of D on Ovi this round, not giving him space, hitting him at every turn and being an all-around pest. Ovi will get his, but limiting his good looks will need to be a team effort, spurred from the inside-out.

The Washington defense is much improved, bolstered by the presence of Niskanen and Orpik, each who came from Pitt this off-season. Orpik was all over John Tavares last round, so Nash should expect to wear him like a suit. Their best and most complete d-man is Carlson, who had taken another major step forward this year. In the past series, the Rangers used to pound Green, limiting his effectiveness. He now is on the third pairing with Gleason, and while Gleason has stepped in nicely, that is a duo that the Rangers will look to exploit.

Goalie:

Lundqvist. That’s all I really need to say. We know how good he is. Washington knows how good he is. He knows how good he is. Lundqvist has shaken off any rust he might have had. As Dan Rosen wrote on NHL.com, Lundqvist tracked the puck well and was deep in his crease, two signs he is at the top of his game.

Holtby had a monster season, playing 73 games and putting him a career-best in wins while solid across the board stats. He missed Game 2 but was a big reason why Washington advanced, despite a shaky goal in Game 7. Steve Valiquette on the Quest for the Cup on MSG yesterday pointed out two areas where NY can attack Holtby. First, get him moving from side-to-side. He doesn’t track the puck as well as Lundqvist, leaving him vulnerable to the Royal Road plays. Secondly, and partially related to the first, he is very high in his crease, actually above the blue. Quick passes side-to-side or deflections leave him vulnerable to the lanes parallel with the post and slightly wider than that down low, since he is not able to recover quickly due to the space he has to travel.

Rangers’ Penalty Kill:

Adam Herman had a great blog (http://www.blueshirtbanter.com/2015/4/29/8514341/how-to-stop-the-capitals-power-play) on how New York should defend the power play. He advocates what John MacLean suggested, stick a forward on Ovechkin and turn it into a triangle-and-one defense rather than the system New York currently uses, which entails pressing the puck but opens holes for cross-ice passes. In addition, the penalty killers collapse down a bit, leaving the points open, though not to the extent they did under Torts, when the blueliners had wide open spaces.

As seen by the shot chart, which confirms what we all know, Ovi loves to blast the one-timer from the left dot. Sticking a forward on him or cheating towards him would reduce that space and make him move. I am unsure changing the whole system makes sense, but altering the shape of the box or how they cheat would reduce the available space and time for Ovi.

Evidence of a possible slight shift in how the penalty kill might defend Ovi is seen in this column from last night by Dan Rosen:

Dan Boyle played the role of Ovechkin and New York's two penalty killing units went to work.

The right side defenseman, Dan Girardi on the first unit and Kevin Klein on the second unit, had their head on a swivel the entire time and didn't move more than 10 feet away from Boyle. They appeared to be covering a 10-foot radius from the hash mark when the puck was low and on the opposite side to the circle when the puck swung up and around.

When the puck swung around, Girardi and Klein aggressively moved up on Boyle to play him closely. The idea is to not give Ovechkin, or Boyle in this case, a chance to get off his one-timer by being in his face.

This is a small adjustment in strategy for the Rangers, who typically like to pressure the puck carrier and play aggressively on the strong side. Ovechkin waits for his opportunities on the weakside.


What that means is rather than a forward marking Ovi, a d-man will do it, though you could do the same with forward. The key weaknesses are if the communication breaks down resulting in opening due to unfamiliarity with the strategy and quick touch passes to open spaces created by focusing on Ovi. It will be interesting to see how New York defends the PP and if they switch strategies throughout a game and the series.

Schedule:

Game 1: Thursday April 30 at 7:30PM (Home) NBCSN
Game 2: Saturday May 2 at 12:30PM (Home) NBC
Game 3: Monday May 4 at 7:30PM (Away) NBCSN
Game 4: Wednesday May 6 at 7:30PM (Away) NBCSN
*Game 5: Friday May 8 at 7PM (Home) NBCSN
*Game 6: Sunday May 10 TBD (Away)
*Game 7: (If Tampa Bay Advances) Wednesday May 13th TBD (Home)
*Game 7: (If Detroit Bay Advances) Tuesday May 12th TBD (Home)

Overall predictions:
Rangers in 7 – same as I predicted before the playoffs

Tampa Bay in 7 – same as well. Bishop gets revenge after missing last year’s meeting.

Calgary in 7 – I had Calgary-Winnipeg with Calgary winning. Anaheim has the size, Calgary has more speed. Plus Hiller gets a measure of revenge versus his old team.

Chicago in 7 – I had St. Louis beating Minnesota. Now the Wild and Blackhawks meet for the third straight year. As good as Dubnyk has been and as shaky as Crawford-Darling have been at times, Chicago’s experience gets the through this round.
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