Yesterday evening, I had the opportunity to spend 30 minutes chatting with Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor about a variety of topics related to the NHL Draft, scouting at the World Championships and the development of players currently in the Flyers system. Pryor is bullish on the organization's direction under general manager Ron Hextall, which heavily emphasizes retaining and supplementing draft pick assets as well as taking a patient approach toward prospect development.
Many times during the conversation, Pryor himself stressed that the organization is committed to patience with its prospects. He does not want the hype for some of the players -- especially recent first round picks Travis Sanheim and Samuel Morin -- to overshadow the awareness that there is still a learning curve to navigate. This will especially be true when the players reach the professional ranks.
In the meantime, Pryor is excited about the quality and depth of the upcoming 2015 NHL Draft.
This year's Draft is considered to deeper-than-average, with some pundits saying it has the potential to someday go down with the likes of the 2003 Draft. Pryor cautions that it's several years too early to make such pronouncements but adds that the scouting meetings that have already taken place as well as the upcoming final preparatory meetings have been chock full of discussions of players whom the scouts feel have NHL-caliber upside.
"Pretty much at all points in this year's Draft, there are players we really like," said Pryor. "We're very excited about where we're at, and we've got a lot of picks to work with, too. Hexy has done a tremendous job putting those assets in our organization's hands."
While some critics have said that Hextall "hasn't done much yet" except trade Scott Hartnell to reacquire R.J. Umberger -- a deal that did not work out well in the first season -- he has done subtle things to significantly help out the team's chances of getting some future NHL "hits" from the 2015 NHL Draft.
The Flyers currently have 10 picks, including four in the top 70 and seven in the top 99. Additionally they will get to select at least once in every round:
1st round - Flyers (7th overall), Tampa Bay (TBD, Braydon Coburn trade)
2nd round - Chicago (TBD, Kimmo Timonen trade)
3rd round - San Jose (70th overall, Tye McGinn trade), Tampa Bay (TBD, Coburn trade)
4th round - Flyers (98th overall), Columbus (99th overall, Scott Hartnell trade)
5th round - Flyers (128th overall)
6th round - Flyers (158th overall)
7th round - Flyers (188th overall)
By way of comparison, a year ago at this time, the Flyers were not in great shape to be in position to select many of the top draft-eligible players whom the scouting department likes in the talent-rich 2015 Draft. They had their own first-round pick but no second-round or third-round picks. At the time, Philly held only what will turn out to be the seventh overall (first round) and 98th overall (fourth round) selections.
That would have been a tough scenario for any organization heading into a Draft. Successful drafting isn't just about trying to hit home runs in the first round (or having a later-round pick unexpectedly turn out to be a home run). It's more about achieving depth. The Flyers have done well in the first round far more often than not. A lack of picks in later rounds -- especially the second-round -- eventually created problems.
During our conversation, I asked Pryor if long gaps between picks-- for instance, a 50-spot gap -- can alter an organization's draft-floor strategy as the picks unfold and the names on the internal drafting sheets whittle down. Specifically, does it make a team more likely to make a very conservative pick when its turn comes up?
"Generically speaking, I think that's fair to say," Pryor replied. "If you have more picks to use, you might approach things a little bit different. We never want to reach too much for a player, especially in a deep Draft, but you can go after some different things."
The early rounds of a draft are largely about consensus among the team's contingent of scouts and decision-makers. While a regional scout may view a player more times over the course of a season than his colleagues based in other regions, there is also plenty of cross-over scouting that takes place for the higher priority players.
Longtime Flyers scout Simon Nolet, based out of Quebec, recently explained to Flyers' writer Jay Greenberg that it's a misnomer to credit a single scout for "finding" a player. They work in tandem and the process is not about being territorial.
"We all pretty much had the same idea about players. Even now nobody is trying to sell something, you know, because you scout this league and this player is from that league. It's not like that. We all work for the Flyers. We all want the same thing. So it's not like I have to sell this guy or that guy because he's from my league. I want the best guy, they want the best guy," Nolet told Greenberg.
Nevertheless, as a draft moves into its latter rounds, the Flyers and all organizations may eventually get to a point where the last few picks might be made on the basis of one scout's viewings and recommendation. Typically, the deeper the draft crop, the later this comes into play.
The NHL is ultra-competitive in every area, including scouting and drafting. It's gotten tougher and tougher over the years to sneak in high-ceiling players under the radar, although it still does happen every once in awhile (such as the Dallas Stars selecting Jamie Benn out of the Junior A level BCHL in the fifth round of the 2007 Draft).
In the NHL, standing still means losing ground to other organizations. Meanwhile, projecting teenage players a half-decade out is an imperfect science. The fewer the picks a team retains, the tougher it is internally produce talent depth to feed the NHL roster. Holding a slew of picks isn't a guarantee of success, either, but it does improve the odds.
Regardless of how many picks a team holds, they must do the same amount of scouting legwork during the season. Every draft-eligible player -- the ones who turn 18 by Sept 15 as well as draft re-entries of 19-year-old and 20-year-olds -- has to be treated as a potential draftee. It is only up to the scouts to evaluate players, not to say who is or isn't likely to be available in the range where the team will pick when the Draft finally rolls around.
Nevertheless, when an organization too frequently trades off draft pick assets, year after year, it becomes tough to produce and maintain depth in the farm system. There are only so many collegiate free agents, undrafted junior overagers and older European free agents who are going to be late-blooming NHLers.
The Flyers have done pretty well for themselves of late in finding contributing players brought over from European leagues. The organization got Michael Raffl that way in 2013 as well as European league veterans Pierre-Edouard Bellemare and Rob Zepp last summer.
Just as with draft-eligible prospects, the older players are scouted throughout the season and then lists gets pared down. The IIHF World Championships are a good final test for potential signees because there are many current and former NHL players who participate in the tourney.
Pryor and the Flyers contingent at the 2015 World Championships have already identified several players whom they want to watch closely in the tournament. Of course, viewing these players is not a guarantee of signing any of them even if they impress.
"We aren't going over just to watch hockey games," Pryor said. "There are specific players we want to evaluate, and it is valuable for us to go see them firsthand. The World Championships is a good place to do it."
A year ago, word from Sweden was that the Flyers had interest in Swedish center Dennis Rasmussen, who ultimately signed with Chicago. The 24-year-old player spent the 2014-15 season in the AHL with Rockford. Yesterday, the Blackhawks announced the signing of 23-year-old Frölunda defenseman Erik Gustafsson (not to be confused with the older former Flyers player of the same name, whose NHL rights are still held by Philadelphia).
In the meantime, more and more top undrafted collegiate players of interest are leaving college early to sign with NHL teams. Pryor noted this trend in our conversation.
Back in March, the Blackhawks landed collegiate free agent Kyle Baun after he finished his junior year with Colgate. The biggest lure was that he got to play in three NHL games with a Cup contending organization, and burned off the first year of his two-year entry-level contract in the process. This is a semi end-around on the NHL entry-level contract (ELC) rules in that while all teams are bound by the same ELC salaries and signing bonus maximums, they have a lot more wiggle room on a restricted free agent bridge contract a year or two later if the player performs.
The Flyers scouts can only control how they evaluate collegiate free agents. It's up to the organization itself to sell players of interest on signing with the team. Philly has had a few near misses the last few years. For instance, they were a finalist for defenseman Christian Folin last year but he opted to sign with the Minnesota Wild. The Wild also got Folin, then age 23, into an single NHL game last year in order to burn off an ELC year immediately.
In the semi-recent past, however, the Flyers have had some success in identifying and signing college free agents who eventually go on to become contributors at the pro level. This is how Philly landed Matt Read, for instance, as well as Erik Gustafsson (the now 26-year-old former Northern Michigan University player of that name who spent the 2014-15 season in the KHL). This year, the Flyers signed graduating Union College forward Cole Bardreau as well as tiny but speedy and skilled QMJHL overager Danick Martel.
Promising signs from Sanheim and other 2014 draftees
The early returns on the Flyers' crop of picks in the 2014 Draft are quite promising across the board. It is not the norm to have a half dozen picks all make significant progress a year removed from their selection in the Draft, but that has actually been the case with all of Philly's picks from last summer's Draft.
Interestingly, immediately after last year's draft, former NHL general manager and current TSN draft ranking and analysis pundit Craig Button gave an "A" grade to Philly's crop of selections. While he freely admits that first impressions are often subject to change, Button said that he felt pretty much everyone Philly selected in 2014 has a decent chance at being a solid pro.
One year later, the Flyers organization has seen progress -- some more dramatic than others, but all to appreciable degrees -- in each of its picks. The NHL Draft is a starting point for prospects but it's not the end point. Post-draft development is 50 percent or more of the equation for most players who go on to have significant pro careers.
Much of my conversation with Pryor was spent getting his take on the development of last year's picks. In-depth individual reviews on each of the 2014 draftees will follow in upcoming blogs. For now, here are some of the conversation highlights as pertains to Saheim, whom many currently consider the top long-term prospect in the system.
The Flyers first-round pick from last year was a fast riser in the second half of the 2013-14 season but no one expected him to have quite as dominant of a WHL season this year as he did. Offensively, his development is arguably a full year ahead of schedule. Defensively, he hit every realistic one-year target point as well.
"With most players, it's kind of a roller coaster road with a lot of ups and downs," Pryor said. "With Travis, it's been more like a rocket ship from where he was at two summers ago to where he is now."
This is especially true on the offensive side of the puck. Sanheim led all WHL defensemen in scoring this season and ranked third among defensemen all three CHL leagues for points.
"People take notice of the offensive stats," Pryor acknowledged. "But he's been developing as an all-around player. He's got a lot of room to get better and to get bigger and stronger, and that's actually a very exciting thing. These are all things we know he's committed to doing."
A year ago, Button and others compared Sanheim's upside to that of New York Rangers standout Ryan McDonagh. Earlier this season, a Western Conference NHL scout raised the bar even higher, saying that Sanheim's development rate reminded him of the progression of eventual two-time Norris Trophy winner Duncan Keith.
Pryor wants to throw the brakes on such comparisons, which can pin an unbearable burden on a player because they raise expectations to an unfair level.
"On the one hand, it's nice for the kid to get that sort of attention and recognition but this is long haul process," said Pryor. "We're very happy with how Travis is coming along, but he has a long way to go and that's just to be expected. We're going to be patient with him, and we're going to let him develop.
"Look, I'm not going to totally rule out that he could come to camp and play so well that he's with us [in the NHL] but we're committed to developing him to be ready for the challenges that are ahead of him. He's got the tools and work ethic but the work itself still has to take its course. More likely than not, another year of junior hockey would be good for him and he's got a good chance of playing for Canada at the World Juniors next year. These are valuable experiences."
For one thing, Sanheim still needs to fill out his tall but lanky frame. The Flyers organization wants him to follow a rigorous nutrition and exercise regimen in the offseason. A player needn't compromise speed -- one of Sanheim's best assets -- to add the right kind of weight.
Secondly, Sanheim's overall game, both offensively and defensively, is still very much a work in progress in terms of bringing him to a point where he's ready to translate his current game -- where he is a fine two-way defenseman by WHL standards -- up to much more rigorous and unforgiving standards of the NHL. At the junior level, top-skill players can recover from mistakes that NHL-caliber opponents pounce on in the blink of an eye.
Sanheim is not infallible when it comes to some of his reads and decision making. However, it should also be noted that his hockey sense is actually quite highly developed relative to most 18-year-old defensemen and he does not give up on plays. Even at the NHL level, his speed and sense should prove beneficial.
Over time, it still remains to be seen if Sanheim's junior-level offense translates to him being an above-average point producer for an NHL defenseman while still being a responsible player in his own end of the ice. Many of his WHL goals are scored off the rush. His shot is not overpowering, although it is steadily getting better and he's blasted home a few one-timers as well.
Defensively, Sanheim has made strides in challenging the rush a little more and taking space away from opposing attackers. He is more physical than he was a year ago and plays with a little more sandpaper (although he'll probably never be known as a "mean" player or punishing hitter). More important, as he adds muscle, it will benefit him as the defender in the constant battle for real estate that goes on in the tight-checking world of the NHL.
Sanheim has also made some subtle strides in other areas that encourage Pryor.
For example, while the left handed shooter has more commonly played left defense in his junior career, there were times this season where the Hitmen asked Sanheim to play the right side. He made the adjustment look easier than it really is for such a young player who lacks experience with backhanded retrievals, the different angles and the breakout pass adjustments.
"I think that speaks to Travis' hockey sense," Pryor said. "Something else that is encouraging is that he likes a challenge and he'll do anything to help his team."
All in all, the Flyers think that Sanheim has a strong foundation to be the type of four-S (size, speed,skill and sense) defenseman that is hard to find. There's likely still a lot of polishing and refinement yet to be done before he's ready to be a regular NHL starter -- much less the type of "diamond" defenseman to whom his potential has been likened.
However, within one season of being drafted, Sanheim has taken big first steps on the desired path. In their own right, the Flyers' subsequent picks in the 2014 Draft all came along nicely over the last year, too, but Sanheim's one-year development set the bar very high. Subsequent blogs will successively look in-depth at second-rounder Nicolas Aube-Kubel, third-rounder Mark Friedman, fifth-rounder Oskar Lindblom, sixth-rounder Radel Fazleev and seventh-rounder Jesper Pettersson.
Pryor and I did not discuss 2013 first-round pick Samuel Morin in detail during our conversation. I plan to circle back on Morin among other topics around the time of the Flyers development camp after the 2015 Draft. However, we did talk briefly about Morin's Rimouski team (for whom the hulking defenseman plays a pivotal role as a shutdown defender) in the context of our Aube-Kubel discussion. Rimouski just swept Aube-Kubel's defending champion Val'd-Or team in very emphatic fashion in the QMJHL semifinals.
Phantoms rookies get a taste of pro-hockey realities
Although the Lehigh Valley Phantoms did not make the Calder Cup playoffs this year, the 2014-15 season was a valuable learning season for a host of first-year players on the AHL team. All of them -- forwards Scott Laughton and Taylor Leier, defensemen Robert Hägg, Shayne Gostibehere and Pettersson and goaltender Anthony Stolarz-- had their individual ups and downs this year.
Each player went through various trials and tribulations, whether it was injury, inconsistency of performance, dealing with the challenges of playing game-in and game-out against grown men, the greater speed and defensive challenge of the pro game or various combinations of all of these factors. On the injury front, Gostisbehere was lost for the season to a partial ACL tear suffered in early November. A mid-season concussion that set back Laughton while on NHL recall.
"That first year out of junior hockey -- or even coming over from Europe -- is a real eye-opener for a lot of young players," said Pryor. "That was the case for Taylor and Scott and, really, every one of our young guys. They got a learning experience that they can take into the off-season and next year. We expect all of these players to put in a lot of dedication this summer and to carry what they learned into next year. I don't want to be redundant but I'll say it again: We're going to be patient."
On the macro level, Pryor said that having the Phantoms back in close proximity to Philadelphia will be beneficial to the player development cycle. For example, the organization was able to have development coaches John Riley (working with the forwards) and Kjell Samuelsson (defensemen) put in frequent on-ice work with the young Phantoms players.
"Sometimes you realize what you're missing when it's gone," said Pryor. "We were spoiled for a number of years having the Phantoms right there in Philly. It was tougher with the travel to Glens Falls [from 2009 to 2014] and to kind of keep the work flow going as steadily as we would like. Over time, [having the farm team in fairly close proximity] is going to help these players and help our organization."
Pryor did not make a direct reference yesterday to the upgrade in the quality of training facilities available to the Phantoms during their Glens Falls years, but Hextall and others such as Terry Murray and Paul Holmgren have done so numerous times. There is a night-and-day difference.
The Phantoms facilities at the PPL Center are nearly of NHL caliber, whereas those in Glens Falls were quite outdated by the time the organization relocated its farm team following the closure and eventual demolition of the Spectrum. The Spectrum itself was outdated by that point but at least both the NHL and AHL teams were able to avail themselves of the Voorhees training complex.
In offseason blogs over the course of the summer, there will be in-depth discussions of the outlook on each of the Phantoms' rookies -- the probable order will be Laughton first, followed in succession by Hägg, Gostisbehere, Leier, Stolarz, Martel, Bardreau and Pettersson. The input Pryor provided yesterday will be incorporated into those blogs.
HockeyBuzz briefly touched upon each player's first AHL season in the recent
Phantoms 2014-15 season-in-reviewblog.
Added focus on goaltender drafting and development
Currently, the Flyers only have two goaltending prospects in the entire farm system. Stolarz, who turned 21 in January, just completed his first professional year. Nineteen-year-old Merrick Madsen, a sixth-round pick in 2013, appeared in just one game for Harvard University during his freshman year in 2014-15.
"We're well aware of that situation," Pryor said. "Without a doubt, we need to get some more depth in our goaltending prospects."
Heading into last year's draft, Hextall and Pryor hoped to be able to draft at least one goaltender along the way. However, the 2014 Draft did not unfold favorably for the Flyers in that regard. After the first round, in which no goalies were selected by any team, there was a few runs on the goaltenders whom the Flyers liked prior to their own picks coming up in that range. Rather than reaching down too far on the overall draft ranking list to take a much-lower ranked goaltending candidate just for the sake of taking a goalie, the Flyers continued to draft based on projected upside.
Given the early promise of the Flyers' 2014 draftees, there is no need to alter that approach this year. Even so, Pryor thinks there is a good chance, given the number of picks the organization has at its disposal this year, the organization will be able to get another goalie prospect or two into the ranks.
"We have put pretty intense focus on the goalies we like, and there is actually a pretty good volume of guys we like this year," said Pryor. "So, like you said, we're not going to draft a goalie just to draft a goalie but I think there's a good chance things can shake out for us at some point where there's someone we like there for us."
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