After looking at the disappointing Colin Greening yesterday, I step up a bit today to a player who really got a bad rap early on and seemingly hasn't been able to shake the overpaid/underperform tag this season. But is that label really deserved?
PRE-SEASON EXPECTATION
Michalek signed a 3 year, $12M contract extension that kicked in at the start of the season, and he was expected to continue to be a top 6 forward and contribute at least 15-20 goals (probably closer to the 20) while the younger players who will eventually succeed him got their feet wet in the league.
WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENED
It was an up and down season for Michalek, one that almost echoed the fate of the club. Like many other players he seemed to have a problem finding his role under Paul MacLean, and adjusting to life without Jason Spezza. He had just 3 goals and 6 assists for 9 points in his first 36 games. He bounced around the lineup, from the first to the fourth line. Along came Dave Cameron, and after a couple of weeks installing his system things changed for Michalek. The second half was much better personally for the Czech forward, netting 10 goals and 25 points in his last 30 games. He was still moved around the lineup, with Mark Stone and Mike Hoffman playing bigger roles, but he did what he was supposed to do. He filled in admirably on the top line in place of Clarke MacArthur after the Lehner/MacArthur season-altering collision, before his own regular season was cut short due to injury, and he missed the last three weeks of the season.
THE HARD STATS
THE FANCY STATS
Once again I have picked a player from each team in the Atlantic Division as a comparable to Michalek, coming as close as I could to age and role.
THE "KEY" STATS
While the above chart shows Michalek's Corsi% on the lower end of the comparable spectrum, his possession numbers after January 10th (51%) was substantially higher than his pre-Jan 10 numbers (47.3%). January 10th is the date I used because that seems to be the point where his own season turned around and his production increased.
FUTURE OUTLOOK
Michalek will continue to be a guy who can chip in offensively, and is a primary penalty killer for the Senators. If he can remain in the top 6 every day is in question, but despite the salary if he is a third line player on your team you should have a pretty solid forward unit. He could also a solid veteran who could be included as part of a package to bring in an asset that would improve the Senators now, if such a deal became available.
Michalek has taken a lot of grief for his lack of value in terms of production/cost, but if you project his second half over an entire (healthy) season you will still conservatively get a 60+ point season with around 20-25 goals. Granted, how much prime ice time he will continue to get is a question mark, so those numbers are most certainly inflated, but he has shown that given the opportunity he can still contribute offensively. Given the other things he brings as well, that actually isn't all that bad for $4M this day in age.
GRADE: While the first half was very disappointing, he rebounded in the second half to earn a pretty solid
C.
In tomorrow's report card, we will take a look at one of the 3 Ottawa natives patrolling the Senators blue line.
If you missed them, check out prior Report Cards:
May 7 - Mark Stone
May 8 - Jared Cowen
May 11 - Colin Greening 
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