First, congratulations to the Lightning, General Manager Steve Yzerman and their fans. This should be an awesome series between arguably the two most exciting to watch teams in the NHL.
As for my prediction, OK, who did you expect me to take?
But there are facts and figures and statistics and trends that support my prediction. Sticking to form, I’m going to look at regular season records and head to head play, as well as trends this postseason, not so much postseason statistics.
And here they are:
1) DEFENSE WINS CHAMPIONSHIPS
The Lightning were the league’s highest scoring team in the regular season, the Blackhawks were the league’s second best defensive team. But more specifically, the Blackhawks match up very well defensively versus the Lightning.
The Lightning ice two very potent forward lines—and two relatively low-scoring forward lines..
Conversely, the Chicago Top 4 has been the best in the Game since 2013, almost interchangeable in terms of matching up with opposing teams’ top lines, and all four are superior to excellent skaters.
Further, the Blackhawks can roll essentially 2-3 “shutdown” lines, Jonathan Toews’ first lines, and third and fourth lines centered by Antoine Vermette and Marcus Kruger respectively.
You can make the argument that Corey Crawford is not the same caliber of goaltender as Henrik Lundqvist or Carey Price. And I wouldn’t argue with you. But he also doesn’t play by himself. The Blackhawks not only come to the table with a terrific top 4, now proven capable of playing big minutes in tough, physical pressure games, but they also boast some of the game’s best defensive forwards in Toews, Marian Hossa, Kruger, Vermette, and Brandon Saad.
2) THE MATCHUPS FAVOR CHICAGO
My strong hunch is the Stamkos line and the Triplets are going to have a tougher time scoring than they have so far in the playoffs. Because they will see some combination of Keith, Seabrook, Hjalmarsson and Oduya throughout the series.
And the dropoff in scoring in these playoffs from Tampa’s top 6 to its bottom 6 is dramatic to say the least.
In 20 playoff games, the Tampa bottom 6 has 9 points. That’s 9 points, not 9 goals. By comparison, Chicago’s bottom 6 has 38 points in 17 games.
In the regular season, the difference is not as dramatic but still largely tilts to Chicago.
Conversely, Tampa will have trouble matching up with the Hawks.
Victor Hedman heads up a pretty strong group of defenders, but it is not the most experienced or physical group. Not unlike the Blackhawks, Tampa’s defense excels at the transition game, but is suspect when it comes to a hard, physical forecheck.
The difference in the two clubs is in their overall style of play and the opposition they faced to get to this point of the playoffs. The Blackhawks can play either a grind it out, “Western Conference” style game—or a speedy, puck possession, “Eastern Conference” style game. In Detroit, Montreal and the Rangers, the Lightning have faced teams that generally rely on speed and puck possession.
I suspect where this series is going to turn is on the Blackhawks pretty remarkable—and often overlooked—ability to establish and maintain lengthy offensive zone pressure.
The Blackhawks come at you in waves and contest the ice 200 feet up and back. At their best, which we saw in games 6 and 7 of the Anaheim series, they maintain really strong gaps, and backcheck relentlessly. And they attack in layers. Their defensemen intuitively know how and when to pinch, with forward coverage—all factors that eventually wear out very strong opponents.
3) CHICAGO WINS IN THE DOT
If this is a series between two puck possession teams, then faceoffs will matter. Tampa has relatively feasted on it’s three opponents thus far in the playoffs. But the larger sample size of the regular season, against largely the same opposition, says that trend will end in the Finals.
Tampa’s top five faceoff men (in total draws) in the regular season:
Fillipula 52.4%
Boyle 50.8%
Stamkos 49.7%
Johnson 48.7%
Paquette 47.7%
Chicago’s:
Toews 56.5%
Vermette 55.3%
Kruger 53.3%
Shaw 50.1%
Richards 48.4%
In the playoffs, Vermette has led all centers for both teams at 58.8%. Toews and Fillipula both come in at 54.1%. But Toews has faced the likes of Ryan Kesler, Mikko Koivu and Mike Fisher throughout the playoffs.
4) TAMPA HAS BEEN BETTER HEAD TO HEAD
True.
But . . .
The Hawks won a 3-2 overtime game versus Tampa in November and were shut out 4-0 in late February in Tampa. In the latter game, as is often the case when the Hawks visit Tampa, they were coming off a game the night before in Sunrise, and facing a rested Lightning club.
And, in that game, the Hawks were without Patrick Kane.
5) THE SCHEDULE FAVORS CHICAGO
What’s the best tonic for a top 4 getting a lot of minutes? A couple of two-day breaks between games, which this series features.
6) CAN TAMPA WIN THE CUP? SURE.
Here’s how.
Ben Bishop stands on his head for likely 7 games, and Corey Crawford melts down.
The Lightning push an all out intense tempo, which the Hawks join, and due to a wild back and forth pace, they get some bounces.
Or a series-ending injury to one of the Chicago top 4.
7) BUT THEY PROBABLY WON’T.
Jon Cooper is a smart, progressive young coach who knows how to get the best out of an exciting, fast, skilled young team.
But the Blackhawks and Joel Quenneville’s experience, their tremendous depth at forward, a great top 4 . . . and generational talents in Toews, Keith and Kane . . . tilt this series their way in 6.
Game 1 preview tomorrow.
JJ
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