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Flyers Go for Best of Both Worlds in 1st Round; Day 2 Preview |
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2015 NHL DRAFT: FLYERS GO FOR BEST OF BOTH WORLDS
During his playing days, Ron Hextall operated as much on raw emotion as calculated design. He never lacked for boldness but patience was not one of his virtues. As the general manager of the Philadelphia Flyers, he has thus far shown both traits as the situation dictates; ranging from his stated approach to player development to the hiring of Dake Hakstol as the team's new head coach and his management of the first round of the 2015 NHL Draft.
With the seventh overall pick of the draft, the Flyers opted to sit tight rather than trading up to ensure no one jumped ahead of them to snag highly touted Brandon Wheat Kings defenseman Ivan Provorov. Patience paid off, and the Flyers got their man.
For the last two months, it had been rumored that Provorov topped Philadelphia's "best available player" rankings, safely assuming that Connor McDavid and Jack Eichel were off the board before they got to pick. It is not known where Philly had Provorov ranked relative to probable top-five picks Noah Hanifin and Dylan Strome, but those players were also likely to be off the board by the time the Flyers picked for the first time.
The fallback options were good ones, too. There was no shortage of intriguing forward prospects available should another team -- the Columbus Blue Jackets being the most likely candidate -- trade up to get Provorov. This maneuverability was valuable to the Flyers' ability to sit tight, because there was not a big gap in the best available players.
The difference maker: a potential top-two defenseman with a conservatively projected top-three upside is rarer to find than a conservatively projected top-six forward with possible first-line upside in their best-case scenario. In saying afterwards that the Flyers are committed to building from the back end out -- a sound strategy in today's NHL -- Hextall acknowledged this fact without saying so directly.
The anxious moments came as the New Jersey Devils, who were widely suspected to be targeting one of three forwards ahead of blueliners Provorov or Zach Werenski, talked trade with Columbus.
As soon as the Devils made their way to the podium to make the sixth pick, the only question was whether they would be taking Pavel Zacha, Lawson Crouse or Mikko Rantanen. It was already clear that the Flyers had their man. When the Flyers turn came up next, they took Provorov.
The likely reason for Columbus deciding to stand pat was that they had Werenski ranked neck-and-neck with Provorov and the trading assets required to move up tilted the strategic scales in favor of grabbing Werenski with the eighth pick.
Drafting defensemen in the first round usually entails a little more risk tolerance than selecting a comparably ranked forward. The biggest allure of selecting Provorov is that, assuming he stays healthy, his risk factor is actually quite low and the potential dividend is very high.
The "risk" the Flyers took on is the chance that Provorov's course of long-term development is mostly horizontal. Even in that case, the Flyers will still have a solid puck-moving defenseman who is calm, takes intelligent routes, skates well and is reliable in his end of the ice with a touch of physicality to his game.
The best-case scenario: Provorov's offensive game continues to develop at a similar rate to the past year as he moved up from being a 16-year-old in the USHL to a 17-year-old in the Western Hockey League. Although height and current weight make him strictly average-sized for today's NHL, he is still more or less a 4S prospect (skill, skating, sense and size) because he already has a strong lower body for his age and good core strength for a player of his age and frame.
The rest of Provorov's attributes are outstanding. It is rare to find a player his age -- let alone a defenseman -- who combines a similar level of skill with smarts. Even the way he skates shows hockey sense; there may be others with greater pure speed (although he is by no means speed deficient) but few who move with the fluid economy and consistently take the shortest possible route. He has good defensive footwork, takes good angles and makes aggressive but intelligent pinches in the offensive zone to support the rush.
Provorov is also well above-average as a shooter and passer. He shoots hard but, even more important, quickly and accurately. The player is also a good breakout passer. He will have to adapt to the pacing of an NHL forecheck but already does things quickly in terms of retrievals and making the first pass.
In terms of competitiveness and maturity, Provorov is an impressive young man with a good head on his shoulders. He has been living and going to school in North America since he was 14. He speaks excellent English now and excelled academically. Communication will not be an issue and he will fit in very readily in the dressing room and off the ice.
Overall, Provorov's selection with the seventh pick was pretty much a no-brainer in terms of difficulty of finding alternatives with similar levels of both potential and polish without a single glaring hole in his game. Even some of the comparably ranked forwards have at least one area of concern.
The Flyers now have an absolutely stacked cupboard of blueline prospects. Let's put it this way: When Robert Hägg is currently a distant fifth-best NHL defense prospect, the organization has built up a very strong group of hopefuls. The four players ahead of him are Provorov, Travis Sanheim, Samuel Morin and offensive defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere. The only drawback to that collective group is that they are all lefthanded shooters.
The odds are strong that the Flyers will not all five development to their peak potential. However, there is a strong chance that at least a couple become star-caliber NHL blueliners. Currently, Provorov and Sanheim would be the 1A and 1B prospects with Morin as the most intimidating shutdown defenseman candidate and Gostisbehere with the best pure offensive skill.
Some have said that the 18-year-old Provorov is NHL ready for next season. However, it would likely take a spectacular training camp by Provorov for the Flyers to alter the conservatively paced year-to-year development plan Hextall has in place. Flyers scouting director Chris Pryor said earlier this month that the Flyers will not bend to outside pressure in their method of development, and having their first-round picks play in the NHL next season was not a top immediate concern.
As strong as the Flyers pool of blueline prospects has become, they need to improve and deepen the pool of forwards (especially wingers) and goaltenders. There were a lot of forwards with above-average offensive potential available after three of the top eight picks were defensemen, but they were getting snapped up rather quickly as all but three picks from the ninth to 23rd spots were used on forwards.
This time around, Hextall did not wait around to see if the next highest ranked player on the Flyers list was going to fall to them. Philly would not have picked until 29th had they not traded up to select Travis Konecny, and there was little chance the player would still be there at that point.
As a result, the Flyers made a sacrifice. They would have preferred not to trade themselves out of the second round -- although the 61st overall pick is the final pick of the round, and the Flyers still have two third-round picks -- but that was an agreeable enough lure to package that asset with the 29th overall pick and choice Ottawa 67s forward Konecny.
Talent-wise, Konecny ranks right up there with anyone the next group beneath the top four or five forwards in this year's Draft class. His pedigree is excellent -- he was the first overall selection of the OHL Draft and justified it by winning Rookie of the Year in 2013-14 with a stellar season for a weak team. He also had a very solid second season when he was healthy.
Konecny has outstanding wheels and upper-lineup caliber puck skills. He always has feet moving and is a balanced offensive talent who can reliably finish scoring chances or create them for linemates. He does not lose speed when carrying the puck, and moves exceptionally well going east-west as well as north-south. He will also go to the "greasy areas" for goals.
Although he plays center at the junior level, Konecny is more likely to play wing at the pro level.
For Ottawa, he has been an effective power play weapon. The righthanded shooter is effective on the off-wing half-boards and can also man a point position.
The forward rates very high in terms of sheer competitiveness. Konecny plays with a hunger for the puck that is tough if not downright impossible to teach. If he gets beaten, it's not for lack of effort. He tenaciously stays with the play and is fearless about initiating or receiving contact. Konecny also has a knack for grating on his opponents.
The reason why Konecny, who was widely projected going anywhere from about the 14th to 25th overall pick, was slotted a tad lower than some other forwards: size and durability concerns. He gives up size to most opponents, although he is relatively low-risk in terms of being one of those "little guys who play like big guys" and are skilled enough to handle the demands of the NHL game.
The latter concern is the bigger one. Konecny's fearless and fast-paced style of play leave him a little more susceptible to injury in a sport where everyone is at reasonably high risk. He has already had some injury issues -- including concussions -- in his young career. The conundrum with Konecny is that, while he has above-average skill and finesse, it is his Tasmanian devil competitiveness that puts him a cut above being just another undersized skill player who may or may not be able to handle the pounding in the NHL.
It has been said by many hockey scouts, including Pryor, that is easier to tone a player down a half-notch as he matures than it is to rev up a player who lacks urgency and/or competitiveness. Konecny is not infallible in some of his decision-making. He'll take some bad penalties and turn over some pucks in trying to make plays. He does backcheck willingly and get some takeaways but will need the usual development time to handle the 200-foot demands of today's game. He has some penalty killing potential -- and would be a shorthanded scoring threat on top of it -- but that will take development to add that to his potential range of deployments as a pro.
As with any NHL Draft, only time will tell what the Flyers truly have in Ivan Provorov and Travis Konecny. However, both players were easily justifiable picks for where they were selected. There was obviously thorough homework in terms of slotting the players in the first round as well as strategy behind sitting tight at seven and trading up from 29th to 24th.
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2015 NHL DRAFT: FLYERS DAY 2 PREVIEW
As a result of last night's trade to move up in the first round and select Travis Konecny, the Flyers no longer hold the 61st overall pick (the final pick of the second round). Barring additional trades to acquire picks in this year's Draft, the Flyers will be on the board for the following selections.
2nd round -- No pick
3rd round -- 70th overall (San Jose, Tye McGinn trade), 90th overall (Tampa, Coburn trade)
4th round -- 98th overall, 99th overall (Columbus, Scott Hartnell trade)
5th round -- 128th overall
6th round -- 158th overall
7th round -- 188th overall
It is impossible to predict how the second round will go. However, it is worth noting that every goaltender except Ilya Samsonov (taken 22nd overall by the Washington Capitals) is still available as of the start of the second round. This was fully expected.
It would not be a surprise if the Flyers used one of their third-round or fourth-round picks on a goaltender and perhaps even select two goaltenders among their seven remaining picks. After the conclusion of the 2015 NHL Draft, we will a full rundown and analysis of the Flyers' second-day picks as well as NHL-level roster moves if any get made.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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