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An outsider's check in on the playoffs |
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So here we sit about halfway through the 1st round of the playoffs. The reality of no Canes playoffs sunk in a little hard when I turned on the tube to watch a bunch of other teams play, but I am now fully into just enjoying the playoffs in a non-stressful way which is not as much fun obviously but is okay.
Here are 10 random observations so far:
1) Measure of a man. The chances of the Thrashers coming back to win their series are obviously slim, but I think the franchise is actually at a more important point than a game 7. When you are down 3-0, mostly humiliated and more or less headed for the golf course is when you get the best measure of character. Does Kovalchuk roar up angry, put the team on his back and carry them to a win? Does Hartley try to use the rest of this series to piece back together confidence in his young franchise goalie? If so, does Lehtonen wither or rebound? And what of Kozlov, Hossa, Zhitnik (and to a lesser degree rental Tkachuk)? These are the guys with playoff experience who should not be in over their heads.
The Carolina Hurricanes rode a very similar situation to a surprising Cup finals run in 01-02. After losing, being physically abused (concussions to Ron Francis and Shane Willis) and written off for dead with 3 losses to the Devils in 00-01, an undermanned and embarassed team rose up from the ice and took 2 games from New Jersey. More significantly, I think they learned what it took to win in the playoffs and that the problems of a 3-0 deficit are inside the individuals in the locker room not just a bad dream that they had no control over. The core of that team went on to fight their way to a series win over New Jersey and a Stanley Cup finals loss the next season.
So where does Atlanta go from here? Quietly to the golf course with a wimper? Or back to the ice with focused anger?
2) Set up for later. If the Rangers can pull off a quick 4-game sweep tonight, they set themselves up very well for later in the playoffs if they can get there. A week off can create issues in terms of momentum and continued focus, but in the long run it means that they get about a full week off to get everyone healthy. They also get an exemption from the mental wear and tear for the 1st round of the playoffs and the next week.
3) Least impressive of the best. Of the handful of teams that are favorites to win it all, you have to mark Buffalo as the least impressive thus far. Though Minnesota did take 1 yesterday, Anaheim has mostly taken care of business in a methodical, business-like fashion. Maybe most significantly, they are playing the game they were designed to play very very well. The triangle of Pronger, Niedermayer, goalie looks as strong as ever with Bryzgalov showing he can step in just fine. I think Detroit is in for a long series with Calgary mostly because Calgary is so difficult to play against in their building, but they seem to be playing their game. Meanwhile, I think Buffalo is having trouble finding their winning identity. Since the return of DiPietro, Buffalo has looked like a marginally better team than the Islanders which is not where the papers have them pegged. I still have to believe that Buffalo emerges from the 1st round, but the luster seems to be coming off. Now is the time to sort of find your way in the playoffs with possible forgiveness. Perhaps they are just saving their best for when they really need it in a later round? I think the Sabres get stronger from here and start building steam.
4) Top end. I continue to be baffled and amazed by the big guns in Tampa. I guess I am biased after watching a balanced Canes team win it all last year, but I just continue to not believe that you can get by on only a couple top-end scorers come playoff time. Tampa continues to prove me wrong. Good for them.
5) Marty. He has looked mediocre at best so far. Though the rise of Parise helps, the Devils are another team that seem to lack depth in scoring. No way will the Devils survive long if the goalie in the other net is as good or better than Brodeur. Too much of their style of play is built around having an advantage on defense.
6) The envy of my eyes. Are any other Canes fans just sitting around drooling watching the Nashville/San Jose series. We are short on young defensemen who are proven top 4 types or even have clear likelihood/potential to get there soon. Jack Johnson gone to LA is slowly becoming old news, but now that he is in the NHL it has the chance to become an old sore. And our return in Tim Gleason had an up-and-down 2006-07 campaign. Nashville rolls out Hamhuis, Suter, Weber and Zanon all under 25, and San Jose counters with Carle, Ehrhoff and Vlasic. In the end, I think not having a couple pure defense-first veterans to go with them is going to be the end for Nashville this season. Come third period in a close game, I think Hannan and Rivet carry the mail in this scoring oriented series. But even if I am right, I would be happy to take Nashville's blueline going forward.
7) Sticking by my guns. Before it all started, I picked Ottawa and its depth on defense and decent array of forwards to emerge from the East. I am sticking by this pick.
8) Luongo. My take on Luongo coming into this season was that I thought he really was the great goalie like the label he had grown into. But at the same time, I said that you really could not measure this for sure until he played a lot more games that mattered. When you always have the out of "his team just isn't good enough" there just is not the same pressure as when your performance regularly decides games that matter. So through the regular season, check the box for winning games that matter. And so far early in the playoffs, check the box for winning games that really really matter. Any chance Vancouver can sign him to a DiPietro contract to guarantee that he never finds his way back into the Southeast Division?
9) Growing pains in the cage. The Pens/Sens have been mostly fun to watch. But for the hockey purist in me too much of the 'excitement' has been scoring caused by mediocre goaltending. Fleury held the fort a little better last night, so perhaps he is getting his feet under him. It was interesting to see Crosby and Fleury chatting on the way off the ice last night. Crosby seems to be growing as a leader in addition to a star in the playoffs.
10) Hate to be Hartley. I am glad I am not Hartley today. He switched to Hedberg for game 2 and got a very good effort. Then he surprisingly switched back to the young Lehtonen with a humongous thud. Now he has to decide if he goes back to his better goalie in Hedberg. Or if he tries to help the kid and his confidence. There just is no good choice here.
Go Canes! ...I don't care if they aren't playing.
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