One revelation in the Rangers' run to the Eastern Conference Finals was the performance of Kevin Hayes. While there were solid expecattions coming into the season, Hayes provided that the team likely even expected while mostly filling the third line center spot. As a rookie, Hayes tallied 17 goals and 45 points. Now, given the changes we have seen this off-season, the query i posed as one of my top-20+ offseason questions takes on even more importance:
How high is Kevin Hayes' ceiling and will he take a major step forward next year, building on his solid rookie campaign?
Part of the answer to that might be found in the contract he signed with the Rangers last year. Hayes' ELC, base and signing bonus, make his current cap hit $900k. As you see below, the contract was structured in such a way that he could potentially earned $2.85 mil in bonuses, which would impact the following year's cap, though a good portion of them are unattainable.
Type A bonuses can pay him $212,500 for each of the following categories, capped at $850,000 in aggregate:
Ice time (aggregate or per game) :Player must be among top six forwards on the club (minimum 42 regular season games played by player and comparison group). An ELC may contain a provision for both aggregate and per-game ice time; however, the maximum a player may earn for ice time bonuses is $212,500.
Goals: 20 goal minimum
Assists: 35 assists minimum
Points: 60 point minimum
Points per game: .73 per game minimum (minimum 42 regular season games played)
Plus minus: Among top three forwards on club (min 42 gp)
NHL All-Star Game: Selected or Plays
NHL All-Star Game MVP
The $2 million in Type B bonuses are much less attainable, especially with the Calder Trophy possibility, which made up $450k in bonuses, out of the equation:
Top-five finish in Hart, Selke, or Rocket Richard voting
Top-three finish in Lady Byng voting
Conn Smythe win
Being named to the NHL’s first or second All-Star team
Finishing top ten in the league in goals, assists, points or points per game
From the above, presuming Hayes takes the next step in his growth, which to me is posting numbers similar to Marty St. Louis' 2014-15 season, 21 goals and 31 assists. If that does happen, based upon the above, he would earn one of the bonuses of $212,500. The Rangers would be ecstatic if he met some of the other bonuses, but to me, that seems somewhat unlikely given the current construct of the team. In addition, if Hayes does not mean those bonuses, it could help New York when they sign him to his next contract.
A
second reason for optimism can be seen in his usage and production as a rookie.
Hayes', who was the Blackhawks’ first-round selection at 24th overall in the 2010 Entry Draft, impact on his linemates Corsi was fairly negligible and in line with his status as a third liner:
But when you look at his own production and impact on his linemates, it tells a different story. His point production per 60/minutes was like a top liner and his impact on the scoring of his linemates was like he was a second line center. Those numbers bode well for future success.
Third, the link below will show where his goals were scored. Hayes tallied 15 of his 17 goals with 14 feet of the net. But as important, were that none of them were empty net scores, showing he was willing and able to do the dirty work down low.
http://somekindofninja.com/nhl/index.php?season=Regular&year=2014-2015&shots=For&team=&ice_player_name=&withPlayer=On+Ice&player_name=Kevin+Hayes&goalie_name=&zero=yes&ten=yes&twenty=yes&event=Goals&game=Home+and+Away&strength=All&time=Regulation&search=Search
Last, is the belief in his talent level. We saw snippets last year, especially in the playoffs. This quote is pretty telling: “High-end skill and high hockey IQ,” said one Western Conference scout of Hayes’ play. “Just scratching the surface.” The question though is where he will play.
Hayes spent most of the regular season at center but won just 36.3% of his faceoffs. He averaged about nine faceoffs per game in the regular season and in the playoffs only won 38.8% of the 116 that he took. so while he had a slight uptick in the postseason, possibly against better talent, he is clearly a work-in-progress between the dots.
In college at Boston College, Hayes started out as a center before being shifted to wing and put up 27 goals and 38 assists in 40 games as a senior. Last season, he was moved occasionally to the wing, where he had a modicum of success and showed he wasn't out of place there. With Derek Stepan and Derick Brassard locked up for several more seasons, Hayes, between the dots, will at best be a third line pivot man.
New York has options as the third line center. Oscar Lindberg could slot in there, where his skill as well as ability on faceoffs would be a welcomed. As such, Hayes - who centered Carl Hagelin and Martin St. Louis last season - could move to second line wing, skating with Brassard and Mats Zuccarello. If that happens, his production could rise accordingly. Regardless of where he plays, Hayes should continue to grow.
If GM Jeff Gorton is smart, they lock up Hayes now for several more seasons. Maybe three years at $2.4-$2.7 mil per season or even slightly higher to make sure he is a key component of the team. If you believe he will reach several of those bonus numbers, then the base on a new deal will need to rise accordingly.
My expectation is that Hayes will be Glory and not Confused this season.
New York Rangers Blogger • 
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