Let's face it, sometimes during the course of a season you lose games you should win and you win games you should lose.
Friday night the Kings played a game against Carolina that they probably should have lost (Stop living in the past Jason!). After a lengthy weekend I was finally able to get into some nitty gritty on a game that was overly frustrating but not unfamiliar already in this young season.
The Kings were outplayed by the Carolina Hurricanes for two out of three periods. They gave up 40 shots, and held one of their lowest puck efficiency percentages of the season.
For those unfamiliar with puck efficiency, it is something I am tracking with the Kings this year in terms of zone entries and exits from the forward and defensive group. As a team, through seven games this year, the Kings have averaged a success rate of 70% getting the puck in the zone. Getting it out of the zone they have managed a 75% success rate. On Friday night they were at 68.6 getting it in, and 72.7 getting it out. The forward group was responsible for a good majority of the failed zone exits, dropping almost four percent below season averages.
There had to be a reason for a possession chart that looked like this:
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and for a success rating that was below average.
Oh yes, there was. Not surprisingly it was not all that unsimilar to the game the Kings played against Vancouver stylistically speaking. The only real difference? The scoreline. The Kings were much more successful in burying the opportunities they were given. They converted on special teams, and were able to cash in on the little chances they did have. They also ultimately waited out a young Carolina team that failed to convert on numerous Grade A chances in the first and second periods. Some of this was based on superb goaltending by Jonathan Quick, and some of it was just plain bad luck and failure to convert on a personal level. Be that as it may, the Kings skated away with a comfortable looking 3-0 victory even though it was anything but.
Our goal here in the breakdown features is not just to analyze singular plays, but also game wide stylistic differences and exposures that lead to issues for teams. The Hurricanes utilized a similar forecheck to the Vancouver Canucks, albeit with a slightly different approach.
We are talking about a 1-2-2 forecheck, which is not so much designed to create turnovers in the offensive zone, but rather smother the breakouts. Thus, we see the Kings two lowest zone exit numbers on the year against Vancouver, and now Carolina. While other teams like San Jose would rather attempt to grind you into dirt and force turnovers, Carolina and Vancouver opt to play a bit soft in the offensive zone and take away space. It worked for two periods, until in the third the Hurricanes A) abandoned this out of frustration and/or B) the Kings started making themselves more available for breakouts.
Here is a good example of what we are talking about:
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The pressure applied to the outlet man is not to cause a turnover directly, but coupling that with the pressure applied with his two accompanying forwards further up the ice is the real trick to creating them. McNabb has very few options in this regard. He either rings it back around the net, which is a difficult last resort play, he tries to go up the boards which is no guarantee, or he attempts to thread the needle to Kopitar. On this particular play he attempted to thread the needle to Kopitar, thus creating a turnover at the blue line by the Hurricanes forward.
Let's play it through in a GIF so you see what happened in real speed:
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This sort of play lasted for a good solid two periods. The kind of pressure applied here caused Kings forwards to get too far away from their breakouts, and caused the breakout passer to try and make too fine of passes. This was largely why the Hurricanes were outplaying the Kings through two.
Another interesting aspect of this game was the approach the Hurricanes used in the offensive zone. The Canes were doing three things: Activating defensemen, crashing the net, and playing soft in the zone. The latter may sound like a bad thing, but it has nothing to do with the physicality aspect of the game. Carolina is not a physical team, they are a speed team. Thus they use that speed and skating to their advantage. While some teams like to muscle their way to the front of the net and win battles, Carolina was doing a good job rotating players around home plate, and also allowing Kings defenseman to collapse too low by taking a step off the defenders. Ergo, playing "Soft" against the defense.
Here are some excellent examples of what we mean. Without annotating these photos too much, just look at the gaps that Carolina has created by allowing Kings forwards to collapse lower than need be. Some of these are not egregious errors, but could definitely turn the wrong way with a puck bounce, turnover, or bad decision.
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And on this one, notice how there are practically three Kings players in the blue paint with two Canes forwards standing fairly unchecked in the slot.
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Muzzin, Carter, and Martinez are all thinking defense first by protecting home plate. Problem with that is that if everyone is converging on the puck, it leaves players standing open. If that puck popped into the slot it may well have been twine finding time for the Canes.
That moment when you realize your man is wide open....
(Forgive the change from imgur to flickr...imgur server crashes are always fun!)
Nevertheless, Carolina was never able to capitalize, but it was not for lack of trying or doing things right.
One of the reasons the Kings sucked in low like this was due to the speed and rotation of the Canes, along with defensemen jumping in.
Here is a good example of that sort of rotation causing issues:
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You can see examples of the soft play by Carolina along with good speedy rotations. The Kings look lost at times, with players breaking down low, losing assignments, and getting caught a little bit in between the play. Over the years, the Blackhawks have maybe been the best team in the NHL at executing this. They rotate so well and move the puck so crisply, that it is hard to keep track of where everyone is at.
The other aspect of this is that the puck carrier in the above play is defenseman Noah Hanifin. He is known as an adept offensive player, and he really takes charge in this play. Lucic, Doughty, AND McNabb all get caught in between chasing him and losing their own markers. If he connects on that pass to Canes forward Brad Malone, then he has a wide open net and it may very well be a tie game leaving the first.
That sort of play by the defenseman was not uncommon in the game.
This play by Justin Faulk allows all Canes forwards to crash the net:
Him jumping into the play below the circles allows for more traffic and potentially second chance opportunities from onrushing forwards.
These elements of the game were all over for Carolina. They just did not score. If you are Carolina Hurricanes coach Bill Peters, you have to go into that locker room and tell your young players to play those first two periods every night for the rest of the season. It was a well executed game that the Kings had trouble handling. You win some, you lose some, and the Kings won this won despite being outplayed. Sometimes that happens. I am sure at some point during the season they will lose a game they probably should have won and the hockey world will balance out.
Nevertheless, this is a good example overall of how speed and pressure on the breakouts can really trouble the Kings.
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