BREAKING: Senators winger Mark Stone has been suspended 2 games for his hit to Landon Ferraro on Saturday night.
Rage away, Sens fans.....
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It is hard to believe that on Friday the Senators hit the 10 game mark of their season already.
As I did last year, I will break this season down into 10 game segments just to see where the team is, where it should be and how it relates to a pace that will see them get to the playoffs.
Last year was the highest point requirement to make the postseason in a long time in the Eastern Conference, where it took 98 points to make the playoffs. That boils down to an average of 1.18 points per game, or 11.8 points per 10 game segment. The number I used for last year was 11.3, but rounded up to 12 to virtually guarantee a playoff spot. So that is the number that will carry over, with 12 being the magic number for every 10 game segment.
So, where did each team in the Eastern Conference sit at the 10 game mark this season?
As you can see, for all the doom and gloom, and inconsistency from the Senators, they are still on pace to make the playoffs. Obviously expectations are higher for some, especially from inside the Senators fan base, where 8th might not be good enough. As far as I am concerned as long as you have a spot at the playoff table there is a chance. And the fact that they have been so inconsistent and "under-achieving" makes me ok with where they are at right now, because it is bound to get better and more consistent (at least you would hope).
Other than the Habs, who are in a different stratosphere right now, there isn't a team in the Atlantic that has shown that they are truly a contender. Even the Lightning who many (including myself) predicted would run away and hide have had more than their share of problems out of the blocks. Each team would be able to point to missed opportunities that would put them in a better position early on but such is life. The key at this point in the season (and at any point for that matter) is to avoid falling too far off the pace where it takes a miraculous run to make up the difference. It happened once, and I don't think that anyone would sit there and suggest that it would be ok to fall out of the race because they have done it and would be able to replicate such a run.
So while it could have been a lot better, the Senators play has them right in the mix and about where most thought they would be.
So, the next step is to determine why they are where they are and what they can do to make things better over the next 10 games.
Here are some of the key stats from the first 10 games:
So as you can see, there is certainly room for improvement in terms of special teams. When you add power play and penalty kill percentages together, you want to have 100% or more. The Senators total through 10 games was 93.3, a very disappointing number indeed. Both units have to be better going forward.
At 5 on 5, their play has been good, but not great, with a 5 on 5 corsi for % of 48.2. Ideally that number is well above 50%, but the Senators have always been at the lower end of that spectrum. Their net shots on goal in all situations is -31, which is actually better than the pace they had set early on where they were getting outshot by around 10 per game, so perhaps that is trending in the right direction. We will see over the next few games if that continues.
Individually, almost every player on the club has taken its turn facing the wrath of the fan base so far this season, save 2. Mark Stone and Kyle Turris have been dynamite in almost every game this far, and there isn't much negative that could be said about the way they have played. That is also illustrated when you look at some of the key advanced stats.
(This chart includes Saturday night's Game 11 stats)
As you can see, the echelon that Stone and Turris have reached early on is clearly illustrated, as are the struggles of Bobby Ryan and Mika Zibanejad. With such a vast percentage of starts in the offensive zone, the percentage of scoring chances for the second line duo should be much higher, whether they are were able to captialize on them or not is another story.
That chart also shows how much the club misses Clarke MacArthur and Mike Hoffman, who were two of the Senators better possession players and also helped create scoring chances.
It also shows that maybe Chris Wideman deserves more of a shot, and rotating him in with Cowen and/or Borowiecki might benefit the team's ability to move the puck. The only negative with that is finding the 4th defenseman to kill penalties, but at 78% can the Senators PK really get that much worse if Karlsson or Wiercioch have to take a more regular turn on the PK?
Last but not least, a quick look at the goaltending. Obviously Craig Anderson has carried most of the load for the team, and I am not sure his goaltending has been good enough. I can't put the blame squarely on his shoulders, but there are a number of goals that shouldn't go in.
After a shaky first start after he hadn't played in over a month, Hammond looked good in his second start on Friday night, allowing just one goal on a 5-on-3 Wings advantage. Maybe it is time to give him a few consecutive games to see if he can capture some of the magic that he bottled last year. The Senators play Tuesday, Thursday and Saturday this week, so allowing Hammond to get into a rhythm and seeing what he can do can't really hurt, because its not like Anderson is playing lights out. He has been his same old self - make the remarkable saves on occasion but then allowing the soft one at the wrong time. Anderson's .905 SP and 3.05 GAA won't get it done. I realize some of that is based on the team play in front of him, but its not good enough regardless.
It probably won't happen, and I don't know for sure if Hammond would be better or more consistent, but I think it would be worth finding out. And if his presence changes the way the team plays in front of him, then that would also be a positive.
For all that, for the things that have been good and the things that have been not so good, the Senators finish the first 10 games in a decent position. They didn't get the second segment off to a very good start and now have to play the juggernaut Habs in their next one, so they will have to step it up a notch to keep the pace they set and they need to maintain to be in the mix come March and April.
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