In case you have yet to notice, playing center in the NHL is difficult.
Actually, scratch that, playing GOOD and RESPONSIBLE center in the NHL is difficult. It is what separates the guys like Kopitar, Toews, and Bergeron, from the rest of the pack. They are not just good in their own end or in the offensive end. They are good in all three zones.
A good center, like Kopitar, calculates risk in moving forward on the fly. They rarely leave their defensemen hanging on outlets, but they also know the importance of positioning in the offensive zone. They are generally the last out of the defensive zone and the first out of the offensive zone. They simply control the center of the ice. That is the most important lane of the ice in both the offensive and defensive zone.
So when viewing a developing player like Nick Shore, it is easy to appreciate what he does in his own zone. It is not easy to control the center of the ice the way he does in the defensive zone. It is not easy to know when to pull over for a board battle and transition to offense. However, it can lead to altogether strong plays and transition hockey. Like this:
Then you get players like Andreoff. Andreoff, too, is a developing center in the NHL. However, he is not a player that you could consider an exceptional thinker of the game. No offense at all intended to Andreoff, but he is more of an energetic and reactionary type player. While it is not a fair comparison because Andreoff is not Kopitar, Kopitar plays more of a dot to dot style center position. Jeff Carter has likewise become a more dot to dot style center, but he still has freewheeling offensive tendencies. The comparison player to player is not fair, but the stylistic comparison can be. No two centers play the game exactly the same. Kopitar takes fewer risks than Carter, Carter will go down low in the offensive zone more frequently than either Kopitar or Shore, Shore will sometimes get locked in a defensive zone and leave slower than either Kopitar or Carter. Subtle differences but major impacts on overall offensive and defensive numbers.
One constant though, is that no matter if you are looking at Kopitar, Carter, or Shore, they remain in control of the center of the ice.
Unfortunately for Andreoff, this has been a difficult task this season. He is an aggressive offensive zone player, but a very limited defensive zone player.
Take a look at Andreoff's shot rate hextallies from War on Ice.
The team shot rate against while Andreoff is on the ice:
There aren't a lot of tallies, but the ones that are present are in a very key area for AA: Right down the freaking middle. Right in the high slot. Right in one of the highest of high scoring areas on the ice.
And when it comes to relative team shot rates for both with No. 15 on the ice and off, it tells a similar story.
Unfortunately, he simply does not control the center lane in either zone.
By comparison, at least in the defensive zone, both Kopitar and Shore excel at balancing where shots come from. Overall they limit the amount of chances in higher scoring areas, primarily through the center lane.
Shore's down low battling has been a very good part of his game, and it shows in the limited chances teams tend to have against him in the low slot.
By comparison, Andreoff allows a ton of chances in the low area of the slot and in the high slot. Teams are going to naturally drift towards these areas for chances. However, a good center, like Kopitar, can limit the amount significantly.
So depending on the overall quality of fourth liners and or the ability for coaches to expose the match up against Andreoff, we may get wild swings in scoring chance percentages.
We will also get smart coaches who actively try and expose this weakness. I am sure you all recall the Detroit Red Wings game where Jeff Blashill was able to utilize last change to absolutely crush the Kings fourth line en route to a victory right? Re-roll the highlights
If you needed further evidence that teams are actively exposing the weakness of Andy Andreoff, just take a look at his possession metrics in home and road splits.
It is clear by the Corsi For and ZSO that teams are pushing him into more difficult zone starts (ZSO) and absolutely crushing him when they have last change.
For the record the High-Scoring Chance and Scoring Chance data is equally damning, as Andreoff holds over 50% in high danger chances and a near 60% in scoring chances, but near 40% in both metrics on the road. He allows double the amount of high danger chances at home per 60 (7) versus on the road (14) as well.
This all stems from the idea that Andreoff is a bit too risky and not aware enough in his defensive zone. His offensive instincts are actually not bad. Last night's assist on Michael Mersch's first goal provided evidence of that.
Defensively, however, we get too much of this (Focus on Andreoff on this play):
Wingers, by nature of the game, have much less responsibility in their own zone. They can get away with more limited awareness, and can also get away with losing assignments due to their targets generally being the finishers on plays. While you do not want to see players losing assignments every, they are generally the end result of breakdowns. A centerman losing his man could result in both the penultimate play in a breakdown, but also a direct scoring chance.
Andreoff has had stints at wing this season where he has actually looked fairly competent and his aggressive style works for him on the boards and behind the net. In short his play has not put him at much risk to get punished by a play turning back up ice. Especially when he has played with a center like Nick Shore, who is nails defensively.
Be sure to glance at that last column of the WOWY chart, and notice how each player playing away from Andreoff (Particularly his regular forwards/wingers) improve. It would seem like common sense in some regard since if you are playing away from Andreoff you are likely playing in an elevated roster lineup with better players. However, it does not need to be that way. Take Shore for example, who has improved the play in possession with Nolan, Andreoff, AND Clifford when he has played alongside them at different times this year. Just because you are a fourth line center, it does not automatically mean you need to be bad and/or lose the possession and scoring chance battle on a regular basis.
While it is easy for me to sit here and say, "Just play Andreoff at wing." it seems to be a risk worth taking. Andreoff has actually looked good at times when playing on the wing in the offensive zone. He has strong puck possession abilities, is an aggressive skater who likes to drive the net. These are all good things, and they can be good things as a winger also. Plus he would not be at the same risk playing at center. Win win right? This would also give the likes of Jordan Weal a shot at center in the NHL (not to say he would do any better than Andreoff.) We have had around 50 some odd games of the 24-year old in the NHL, and at this point it is hard to see him as anything other than a fringe 4th line center on the verge of replacement. At wing though he could still be a valuable asset. We have yet to really see any extended play from him at the wing position, and if the Kings were wise they would utilize him there before entirely pulling the plug on that project.
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