There is one Kings player out there who stands above the rest in having a season worth noting.
Yes, you can talk about Drew Doughty and the Norris. Yes, you can talk about Anze Kopitar and his incredibly meaningful two-way game. However, if we are talking about expectations to start the year, Tyler Toffoli has really gone above and beyond what may have been anticipated.
As it currently stands, Toffoli has 23 goals on the season. That is already tied with his career high set last season. The 23-year old is proving to be a capable sniper in this league so far in just his third pro season. While a recent slump has taken the Scarborough Ontario native off the 40 goal scoring pace he had through December and January, he is still sitting in a healthy 35 range which is pretty darn good. We have talked about it historically on twitter, but if his good fortunes continues, he may very well be one of the better single season scorers the Kings have had in the last 10-15 years. Seems surprising to some maybe, but the Kings have rarely had players in the 35 goal range since Ziggy Palffy, Luc Robitaille and Alex Frolov left the ranks of the Silver and Black. Toffoli is in rare territory by recent LA Kings standards.
The big emphasis here is "IF" he keeps pace.
First, let's take a look at what has made Toffoli such an effective goal scorer.
Tyler Toffoli has a plus wrist shot. While his skating was widely criticized in early scouting reports as an element to his game that could hold him back, Toffoli has still always been considered an excellent offensive player. You don't score 57 and 52 goals in the OHL in back to back years by accident or due to something like linemates/overage play. Toffoli IS and always has been a pure goal scorer.
When he has a plus wrist shot what are we talking about?
Well for one, it's action is low without sacrificing power and accuracy. With low action to a wrist shot it is harder for goaltenders to pick up when it will be released and where it is going. It is like a pitcher with a deceptive wind-up or an awkward release point. It can make it extremely difficult for batters to time it. The goalie shooter relationship can be similar.
Here are a few good examples of Toffoli's wrist shot in action.
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There is timing, power, elevation, and deception in both of these shots. The second shot in this sequence is one that Toffoli absolutely rips. Even though he was showing shot the whole way, the goaltender was unable to get some equipment on it purely due to placement/power. (From a goaltending standpoint if you want to say he should have been out further to challenge that's fair.)
Toffoli has also done more of this this year:
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This is the effect of solid linemates and a good goal scorers reading of the game. Isolate him on this place and notice how he uses the cycle and misdirection to find a hole in the defense. There has been much more of that this year. Toffoli is constantly moving in the offensive zone. He rarely stops and stands in one area, and his constant movement and rotation with other players causes the exact breakdown in this GIF. He gets wide open, unchecked, behind and between defenders. Nevermind the great ability to turn and shoot all in one motion, he was in the right area.
Now, there is kind of a running debate right now in regards to shot quality versus quantity. They seem to have equal value in the NHL. Some players score purely by throwing a lot of pucks on net from everywhere, while others score by getting to high scoring areas. There is obviously a lot of middle ground where players do both, and tend to be alright.
Toffoli falls into the category of picking his spots. If we are talking the 300 forwards who have played at least 400 minutes of even strength time, Toffoli currently ranks 11th with a 1.17 goals per 60. Other players right around that area? Dylan Larkin, Mike Hoffman, Alex Ovechkin, Derrick Brassard, Jason Spezza, J.T. Miller.
However, when you look at individual shots per 60 minutes, 73 falls all the way down to 65th. Amusingly right below Patrick Kane (which gives you a decent idea of just how ridiculous he has been this season)
In terms of shot pace, Toffoli is actually DOWN from last year. He shot at a healthy 10.93 last season, which if transplanted to this season would place him at No. 8 overall in the league in shots per 60. Despite the per 60 shooting falling to 8.49 this year, the goals are up from a 0.96 pace to a 1.17 per 60 pace at even strength.
A healthy bump in his shooting percentage is a good indicator of these things. It is up to 13.83 from last year's 8.75 at even strength. In all-situations he is shooting 17.4 up from 11.5 in 2014-15.
While some of this can be attributed to luck, and pucks falling your way here and there, you do in a sense create your own luck.
Take a look at the heat map and shot selection by Toffoli last year versus this year.
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He is taking a step closer at even strength. To compound that he is opting for way more wrist shots than slapshots. This is excellent when you consider how good his wrist shot is, coupled with four less feet on average that the goaltender has to see the shot. Less space, less time, more goals. In that sense, Toffoli may be creating his own luck and high shooting percentage. It is not entirely out of the question that he can sustain a shooting percentage in the 15 range for the remainder of the season.
With that in mind, there IS going to be a very delicate balance here for the rest of the season if Toffoli wants to continue his strong run of form.
He is streaky.
The Kings have played 51 games, and if you break that into even 17 games blocks, Toffoli has some interesting trends.
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Toffoli has shown to be much better as a selective shooter versus a Dustin Brown-shoot from everywhere kind of player. This may even go back as far as last year when his shots were up but his goal pace was down. Some players thrive on that, some players don't. He is in a good range of shooting pace overall. He is definitely not an Alex Tanguay of the world (Who regularly takes under 100 shots a year), but he is no Ovechkin. Regardless, the trend for Toffoli seems to be more successful if he picks his spots. Also, playing alongside two dynamite centers like Jeff Carter and Anze Kopitar gives you no shortage of time, space, and opportunity.
We talk about candidates for regression often, and Toffoli's numbers look like a player who would be certainly in line for a downturn. His shooting percentage is just too high to maintain, and his goal pace has already come down some from his primetime 40 goal run. Nevertheless, I do not think we are talking a big drop off if he continues to do the positive things he has been doing in the offensive zone. He is arguably the Kings most dangerous scorer, and it does not look like he is doing it out of sheer good fortune.
(Stats provided by War on Ice, Stats.hockeyanalysis, and sporting charts)
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