The Oilers are in danger of winning enough to climb out of the bottom 5 tonight. Yeah. It’s freaking me out too.

Now the fact is that the Oilers have played more hockey than anyone else already and this is going to be game 75 tonight. That means even a Win tonight doesn’t guarantee them much as everybody in the NHL has games in hand. Still, an Oiler win along with losses by Calgary and Columbus could see Edmonton leapfrog 3 teams.

But even if they don’t, or it’s all destined to be made up by the teams with games in hand, the Oilers have made progress this year. The standings will show Edmonton is still struggling, and it’s true, but it’s also true that they are better than they were in 2014-2015.

Even though the Oilers lead the NHL in Man-Games lost for the majority of the season (they’ve since been overtaken), Edmonton has won more games, lost by closer margins, and is situated better to do better in the next season than they were 12 months ago.

After 74 games:

2014-2015 21-40-13
2015-2016 29-38-7

Edmonton today is -37 in Goal Differential, last year they were -85 at the end of the season. They allowed 283 goals and this year are on pace to allow roughly 236. And even though this team missed RNH for 2 months, Eberle for 1 month, Pouliot for 2 months, and McDavid for 3 months, they are on pace to score as many goals as they did a year ago.

The Oilers are better. They are going to keep getting better.

If Chiarelli ends up with Hamonic (plausible) and another quality defender via UFA or trade then this is a team that could very well challenge legitimately for a playoff spot next year. If they had been healthy or close to it then it’s possible they could be a lot closer to the conversation this year. It just didn’t work out that way.

When people start talking about doomsday scenarios for the Oilers where they have to completely blow up the core, I roll my eyes a bit. This is a team that hasn’t even played a single game together as the roster was constructed. Yeah, they lose a lot. They have 2 established NHL defensemen on their lineup and 2 of their top 3 centers are 19 and 20. Both of those things are true and both of those things are going to change in favourable ways for the team moving forward.

Whether they ever really climb the standings or not, this team is better in several very real ways than it was a year ago. They are almost 50 goals better than they were. It’s progress.

LINEUP

Oilers keep with the 3C plan and we know they can switch it mid-game. Brossoit starts between the pipes, as was planned all along.

Hall Draisaitl Pakarinen
Maroon McDavid Eberle
Korpikoski RNH Yakupov
Hendricks Letestu Kassian

Sekera Fayne
Nurse Clendening
Reinhart Oesterle

Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Rein-Oe (Rhino). The last game was a good one for the pairing of Reinhart and Oesterle by eye. By number, they were absolutely crushed. I mean, thoroughly trounced. So what the heck was going on? I have no idea. I also saw them good on the night. Oesterle can skate very well, Reinhart had calm feet and played physically. It looked good on TV at any rate. Still, being -18 and -19 in shot attempts is ugly. I’m interested in seeing how the duo fares tonight against the Avs. Oesterle and Reinhart appear to be the 7-8 defenders in the system. If Gryba and Davidson were here, they wouldn’t be. Still, they’ve looked good enough that one of them might be well on his way to earning a spot as the extra Dman in 2016-2017.

2) Ell-Bee. Brossoit earned the backup job by playing well in the AHL and coming up through the system, but after a great 1st game he’s since followed that up with 2 weak ones. He allowed 9 goals in those 2 games and his save percentage has plummeted to an .882 on the year. He might get 2 other starts after this if the Oilers are being generous. If not, maybe 1 more. Brossoit still doesn’t have his first career NHL win and it would be nice to get the kid one tonight. The problem is that Edmonton’s wins have largely been on the back of Brossoit’s counterpart. The Oilers have been driven very much by Talbot’s hot hand. It’s a big job to take over for Talbot, who just got a shutout in the last game.

3) Slowing Avalanche. It’s unlikely Duchene will play tonight and MacKinnon was injured in their last game. He wont be re-evaluated until Monday. That’s a lot of speed taken out of the lineup, which should be music to the ears of the young defensemen in Edmonton’s lineup. It’s hard to make NHL defensemen look really silly, but speed can do exactly that. With those two players out, Colorado is missing a real response to McDavid and Hall. If this turns into a track meet then the Oilers are well situated. Oh, and they happen to be Colorado’s leading scorers.

Puck drops at 7:30PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet One. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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