While Doughty is certainly expected to be in for the Norris, and Kopitar will as usual be considered for a Selke nomination, a somewhat surprising nomination came the way of the Kings on Wednesday.
The Kings 30-year old netminder, who had maybe his best season since the unreal 2011-12 season, was nominated for a Vezina trophy. The other two nominees include Ben Bishop from Tampa Bay and the odds on favorite for the trophy by a wide margin, Braden Holtby of the Washington Capitals. Quick played a massive 68 games for the Kings this season, accumulating a 40-23-0-5 record, with a .918 save percentage and a 2.22 goals against average. His 5v5 save percentage was also .926
Without expressing too much commentary, let's just run through some of the stats before getting to any arguing here or there.
Amongst goalies that played at least 40 games this year, Quick's .918 save percentage in all situationsranks 16th amongst 29 goaltenders, behind Freddie Andersen and ahead of Devan Dubnyk . Amongst goaltenders who played at least 50 games he was 9th out of 20 goaltenders between Devan Dubnyk and Henrik Lundqvist.
His Goals Against Average ranks 6th amongst goaltenders on a minimum 50 games played, and his 5v5 save percentage ranks 12th amongst 23 goaltenders who played at least 2000 5v5 minutes.
In terms of shot quality faced, Quick saw the furthest out shot distance amongst any goalie in the NHL at 5v5, at an average of 38.21 feet. Amongst goalies playing at least 2000 5v5 minutes, he ranked 22nd out of 23 goaltenders in low-danger save percentage, 10th in medium danger save percentage, and 1st in high danger save percentage. He also faced the fewest shots against on average at even strength, at 25.65 per 60 minutes. Due to that, Quick actually was 5th in total shots against, despite playing the most games and most minutes.
He was also 14th in the league amongst 27 eligible goaltenders in penalty kill save percentage. If you want to get super nerdy with it, Quick posted a 5.96 Goals Saved Above Average this year which was 9th amongst the most regular starters (50+), and a quality start percentage of .559 which was also 9th amongst eligible goalies. For reference, Bishop led the league in Goals Saved above average at 19.36, and Crawford led the league in quality starts at .690.
Those stats explained via Hockey Reference:
Quality Starts
Starts with Sv% > average SV% for the year, or at least 88.5% on Nights with 20 or fewer shots against
Goals Saved Above Average
The goals this goalies prevented given his save percentage and shots faced vs. the league average save percentage on the same number of shots.
The meat of Quick's nomination may come on the back of the workload. He played 68 games this season, which was the most in the NHL.His 40 wins was also second to only Braden Holtby. However, wins at least, is a team stat, and it can be a difficult decision to give an individual award based on a team stat. However, you could also argue that a save percentage or a goals against is a team stat. So, pick your poison and draw your line in the sand as you see fit.
Goalies are as troubling a group as any to evaluate, and there are a lot of moving parts. This is definitely a controversial nomination even with that considered.
If you want to argue against Quick, you do have plenty of ammo given that goalies like Brian Elliot, Corey Crawford, Roberto Luongo, and Corey Schneider (Who might as well be renamed Rodney Dangerfield at this point) all had better numbers, in a comparable number of starts on comparably good teams to the Kings (Except for Schneider). He did have the biggest workload in the NHL, but he faced few shots compared to others, and lesser quality shots as well (Shot distance, adj save percentage etc.). He also played 68 games, but that was not a huge number more than say Luongo, Rask, Bishop, or Holtby, all of whom played more than 60 games and had comparable or better save percentages to Quick. While it should not take away from the quality of goaltending Quick provides, he does play in a very cushy system compared to that of Craig Anderson, who posted a .925 5v5 adjusted save percentage (Quick - .928), a standard .916 save percentage (Quick .918), started 60 games (Quick 68) and faced a whopping 32.45 shots a night versus Quick's 25.65.
If you want to argue FOR Quick, you could say he had the biggest workload in the NHL night to night, while still posting top-15 to top-10 numbers for the most part. He also had the highest high-danger save percentage, which does hammer home the emphasis on him being a highly acrobatic goalie capable of making saves no one else can make. His six shutouts ranked 6th in the NHL, and his 40 wins ranked 2nd.
Ultimately you have to ask yourself, if the Kings had Pekka Rinne (Who was average this year) starting 68 games would they be as good as they are right now? If the Kings had Corey Schneider starting 68 games would they be better off? The same? This question can work both ways. That, however, is a difficult way to base an individual award because it heavily factors team play. Again though, that is what we are dealing with with goalies at the moment. Quick had a very good year for Los Angeles, one of his best ones since his standout 2011-12, which is a nice turnaround given his struggles after his breakout Conn Smythe year. If I could peer into my crystal ball, I would say this argument will ultimately boil down to a statistically backed one versus a more traditionalist view of things. Some will not value the statistical value of save percentages, quality of shots versus results (AKA wins). All in all, Quick had a good year, and if you care not to argue one way or another, that is at least one thing you can for sure walk away with and feel fine about.
Does he deserve to be in the category of Top 3 in the league though? Does it really even matter since it seems that Holtby is pretty much a lock?
This will probably be a divided poll considering this is a Kings-centric blog, but it should be asked anyways.
Where do you stand?
Does Quick deserve a Vezina nomination? (Top 3)
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