Buffalo Sabres GM Tim Murray was wise to stay at home and not travel to Toronto for Saturday night's NHL draft lottery made-for-TV reality show.
Saturday's NHL Draft Lottery left the same greasy residue as the 2005 Sidney Crosby *coughs* "draft lottery".
The odds were stacked against the Sabres, who entered the proceedings with a 6% chance of winning. Last April, the 30th place Sabres held a 20% chip in the poker game and finished second overall. Murray converted that chip into generational talent Jack Eichel, who shut the mouths of his skeptics and doubters performing off the charts in his NHL rookie season. From the time he puled his Bauer blades on at rookie development camp in July until the time he cleaned out hi s locker stall two weeks ago, Eichel flat out dominated the true rookie class of forwards in the NHL.
I can assure you that Murray wasn't binge eating a half gallon of Perry's "Sabres Sundae" ice cream with pizza logs and beef jerky and washing it down with an Ellicottville Brewing Company Steel IPA chaser while listening to Adele's "Hello" after learning that his team lost the lottery.
To the contrary.
Murray and his scouts will now occupy the conference room at FNC for the next week. The GM and his scouts will take their process to the next level.
Which NHL teams are in salary cap jail right now (Blackhawks, Ducks, Wild)? Which early round playoff series losers are going to start selling off valuable assets (Anaheim)? Who are the top UFAs (Stamkos, Okposo)? Which college free agents are available (Vesey, Caggiula)?
Murray was already working his pre-combine, pre-draft strategy. The final piece to his puzzle was to learn what his draft rank position was. Now that he knows he is #8, its off to work.
Down deep, Murray had a hunch that his Sabres were not going to "win" the first overall pick in the lottery. Realists knew who was going to win the draft. The dreamers are the ones disappointed right now that their teams "lost".
The 30th place Leafs held home ice advantage for the NHL Draft Lottery. Watching the who spectacle unfold, one could not help by wonder if it all was just a waste of every other team's time. Like Tim Murray, I have had a snaking suspicion about this particular draft and which team would be awarded the first overall pick. I like conspiracy theories. I'm leaning towards the Leafs getting some corporate welfare by being selected first overall. I can't prove my theory. It's just a hunch. My take all season long is that the Leafs selected the wrong season to tank in. Their president Brendan Shanahan said that he, his staff, coaches and players "worked hard" this season to earn the number one slot in the 2016 NHL Draft Lottery. Why didn't he lead his group to win McDavid or Eichel in April 2015?
I like Auston Matthews as a player, however, he's not Connor McDavid and he's certainly not Jack Eichel in terms of his overall skill set. Matthews has a chance to be special like McDavid and Eichel. Matthews has a lot to prove at the NHL level. He played at a high level is the Swiss Elite League, however, that isn't as tough and rigorous a league as Canadian major junior, NCAA, or the Finnish Elite League. The other factor with Matthews is that he has to group in the long shadows cast by super 2015-16 rookies Eichel, McDavid, Larkin, Panarin, Domi, and Gostisbehere. That won't be easy. In my opinion, Matthews isn't the concensus #1 overall pick right now. I can see GMs and their scouting staffs arguing passionately for Laine to be slotted ahead of Matthews between now and draft day on June 24. The NHL Scouting Combine in Buffalo will shed new light on all of these draft eligible prospects. I suspect that Laine and all of the to prospects will be hitting the chin up bar and bench press stations today. There are roundabout 80 days before the NHL Draft in Buffalo for the kids to work with their trainers to get bigger, stronger, faster, and more powerful.
The Leafs may or may not end up selecting the Arizona native first overall at the June 24 NHL Draft in Buffalo. I would not be shocked at all if the Leafs traded the #1 overall pick to the Coyotes in exchange for their 7th overall pick, all world D-man Oliver Ekman-Larsson, forwards Max Domi and Dyland Strome, and some draft choices.
Again, I'm a conspiracy theorist.
For now, I say "Attaboy" to Shanny and his Leafs for out working and out-tanking the 29 other NHL teams. Job well done. You should be very proud of your accomplishment.
I remember Buffalo.
Tim Murray's focus heading into the NHL Draft Lottery was to somehow find a way to vault from his #8 position into the top four for an opportunity to select one of the top forwards in this draft class. Murray would have no use for Matthews, a center, because he is already stacked at that position with Ryan O'Reilly, Jack Eichel, Samson Reinhart, Zemgus Girgensons and Johan Larsson already performing well at that position last season. Where would Matthews play in Buffalo? On a wing with Eichel and Reinhart? No. Murray will be addressing that positional need in unrestricted free agency. Monster UFA Steven Stamkos has been on Murray's radar since last June. The Buffalo GM will be a player for Stamkos come July 1. Murray also is very much involved in the process of recruiting NCAA scoring star free agents Jimmy Vesey and Drake Caggiula to the Sabres. Caggiula is free to sign with an NHL team right now and Buffalo is still on hi short list. Murray will have to wait until August 15 to take a run at Vesey, who will become available as a UFA on that day after turning down the Nashville Predators. Murray will also be active in the trade market. The Buffalo GM has $35 million in available cap space for the upcoming season on a fast rising club. He has 21 premium picks in the next two drafts, 12 in the Buffalo-hosted 2016 NHL Draft. Murray also has young prospects that he can trade away to in a package to grab onto a veteran sniping winger like Anaheim's Corey Perry. I was told recently that Murray has had a deal in place with the Ducks for Perry. I trust my source.
The heads of Sabres fans would spontaneously combust if Tim Murray could give them forward dominance with Corey Perry or Steven Stamkos, plus Jimmy Vesey or Drake Caggiula at the NHL Draft. Buffalo's top six would be stronger than horseradish.
Losing the NHL Lottery is not such a bad thing for Murray. He will get his forward depth from the free agency and trade markets.
The are that he will bolster via the draft will be his blue line.
Murray and his scouts, like the 29 other teams, were and still are fascinated by the big Finns monster wingers in Patrik Laine and Jesse Puljujarvi. Murray is also a big fan of wingers Matt Tkachuk, Alex Nylander, Pierre-Luc Dubois. However, it's time to think about adding the best young defenseman possible via the draft.
Murray's mouth must be watering right now at the prospect of having three dynamic, NHL ready D-men available to him at the #8 slot. Murray has been looking to add a lefthanded QB to his D corps via the trade market. Anaheim Ducks lefty Cam Fowler fits that bill to a tee. Murray and his scouts now have an opportunity via the draft to beef up their defensive size, snarl, speed and skill. Murray added Brenden Guhle in the second round of the 2015 NHL Draft and he is going to be a great player for the Sabres moving forward. Guhle checks all of Murray's boxes in terms of size, speed and skill. Guhle impressed Sabres brass in his short stint playing with the Amerks at the end of their season. Guhle will be given every opportunity to make the big club this season. Veteran leader Josh Gorges now has one year remaining on his deal and Guhle could make a case for why he deserves it with a strong rookie camp and training camp. He will most likely begin next season in Rochester, which is not a terrible thing. Guhle need only look at Rasmus Ristolainen, Jake McCabe and Mark Pysyk to see that playing big minutes for the Amerks over a sustained period of time can only benefit a young D in his development into an NHL player. After his NCAA career had ended in March, Murray also added Minnesota State free agent righty Casey Nelson, who is an impressive puck mover. Nelson will likely begin the season in AHL Rochester, unless he has a monster summer and impresses Murray and Dan Bylsma at rookie development camp at Buffalo's training camp.
I predict a run of forwards being selected by the first seven teams at the 2016 NHL Draft.
The glut of forwards selected before him will allow Murray's target D-men to fall to him at the 8 hole. That is, of course, if Murray doesn't trade up into the top five echelon. For now, let's assume that Murray holds onto the #8 pick and he uses it to draft a complete, puck transporting D.
If I know Murray the way I think I know Murray, I say he goes all-in on Sarnia Sting star Jakob Chychrun.
Chychrun, in my opinion, is the best D two-way defenseman in this draft.
Before too long, Chychrun is going to be a respected NHL defender. There is nothing that this id cannot do well. His size and strength are one thing, however, his four-way skating ability is entirely another. For a big man, he uses his speed to escape enemy fore checkers in his end of the barn. He pivots, turns and explodes with powerful edges. He hits like a loaded Peterbilt 18-wheeler. He makes a tape to tape first pass. He rarely gets rattled on the ice during pressure packed situations. He has a bomb of an accurate point shot that will leave marks on enemy shot blockers who dare to step into his shot lane. He walks the line and finds the shooting seams and gets his shot of quickly. Chychrun makes a beauty first pass and uses his vision and awareness to keep the puck moving. His stick positioning is exceptional. He uses his 6'3" and 195 lbs. very aggressively in all three zones. Chychrun rarely loses back check battles because he is so fast and fluid on his feet. His compete level is at "11".
Chychrun is a man in hot demand by several NHL GMs. Tim Murray has solid relations with the player and his family. Chychrun's uncle is former Ottawa Senators D and current Binghamton Senators head coach Luke Richardson, whom Murray is a tremendous personal and business relationship. Also, Buffalo Sabres center David Legwand , along with former NHLer Derian Hatcher, is the co-owner of the Sarnia Sting. I'm certain that Legwand has put in a dozen good words to the Chychrun camp about the experiences of playing in Buffalo, NY for the most passionate hockey fan base in the NHL.
Let's say that Chychrun is stolen away from Murray earlier in the draft by a ruthless NHL GM.
What then?
Have no fear, Murray always has a Plan B.
His name is Olli Juolevi of the OHL London Knights.
He is Finnish and he is all that.
When I watch Juolevi play, I immediately am reminded of a healthy Olli Maata. Yes, the same Pittsburgh Penguins D who was viciously blasted in the head by a Brooks Orpik elbow on Saturday night. He can also be compared to Sabres D monster Rasmus Ristolainen in that he is as polished from a skating and skills standpoint. Juolevi isn't the punishing hitter that Ristolainen is. yet. However, give it time.
Juolevi, like Chychrun, is a complete lefty who can do it all, and do it all well. Juolevi is relentless in his application of pressure. He closes quick on puck carriers and denies his time and space with his superb edge work and skating. He is an excellent transporter of the puck. Sabres head coach Dan Bylsma and D coach Terry Murray are all about having the D activate and join the rush. Juolevi is a great point guard in that way. At 6'2" and 185 lbs. he is a strong and balanced skater. He is patient. He doesn't run out of his way looking for big hits but if a man skates through his side of the rink with a puck on his stick, Juolevi is going to put the body on him. He back checks like his hair is on fire. Like Chychrun, Juolevi's compete level is in another stratosphere compared to most 18 year old defenders.
Tim Murray cannot go wrong by selecting either Jakob Chychrun or Olli Juolevi with the 8th overall pick in the Buffalo draft.
Rasmus Ristolainen was the 8th overall pick at the 2013 NHL Draft.
He will be a Norris candidate in the very near future.
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Tim Murray may also be inclined to trade his 8th overall pick away as part of a blockbuster package to deliver Cam Fowler and Corey Perry to Buffalo this summer. However, it's not likely to happen because Buffalo's 2017 first round pick will be in the middle (15) or bottom of the draft. The Sabres are going to be a playoff team next season which means that the tanking days are now over.
Here is my trade proposal to Anaheim in exchange for Fowler and Perry:
2017 1st Rounder
2016 and 2017 2nd rounder
Tyler Ennis (forward)
Zemgus Girgensons (forward)
Mark Pysyk (defenseman)
Nick Baptiste (forward)
If Bob Murray balks at Buffalo's 2017 first round pick and demands Tim Murray's 8th overall pick in 2016, then so be it. Then, Tim Murray can subtract his 2016 second rounder because the value of Buffalo's 2016 first rounder has more perceived value than their 2017 first rounder.
Fowler has a $4M AAV for the next two seasons.
Perry is an $8.625M AAV for the next four seasons.
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Tim Murray will likely use a couple of second rounders to secure the UFA rights to pending UFA Steven Stamkos.
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My Mock Top 10 2016 NHL Draft Order :
1. Toronto Maple Leafs: Auston Matthews OR Trade to Arizona
2. Winnipeg Jets: Patrik Laine
3. Columbus Blue Jackets: Jesse Puljujarvi
4. Edmonton Oilers: Matt Tkachuk
5. Vancouver Canucks: Pierre-Luc Dubois
6. Calgary Flames: Alex Nylander
7. Arizona Coyotes: Logan Brown
8. Buffalo Sabres: Jakob Chychrun
9. Montreal Canadiens: Olli Juolevi
10. Colorado Avalanche: Max Jones
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