This is the first of a series of posts breaking down the players the Blue Jackets selected in the 2016 entry draft. As the draft was going on I gave my initial reaction to the picks which you can view
here and
here.
I've taken some time to research the players more in depth and provide a better look at who the player is and what to expect down the road. We start today with 7th round pick Calvin Thurkauf.
Thurkauf is a 19 year old, Swiss-born left winger who spent this past season playing for the Kelowna Rockets in the Western Hockey League. At the time this pick seemed very questionable but after doing some research this might be one of the more underrated picks by the Jackets.
There has been some great work done recently on overaged prospects, particularly how they may be undervalued at the NHL draft. Zac Urback wrote a
great piece about using his Draft Expected Value tool to identify undervalued overaged prospects. Hayden Speak followed up that post after the draft, and wrote
this article which researched all players picked in the draft and he found that overaged players were a better bet as you moved later in the draft.
These were some very interesting pieces and they really opened my eyes to overaged players. Prior to reading these I was against drafting overage players, but I’m starting to come around on the idea. With that being said Thurkof doesn’t seem to be the player these pieces had in mind when suggesting drafting overage players.
Thurkof was not an offensive player this year. He spent the majority of time playing a bottom six role on the Rockets, providing a physical presence. Most of his offensive chances came from him being dominant physically along the boards in the cycle. The
Hockey Prospect Black Book describes him as a player with a “decent first-step acceleration” and his “playmaking skills and hockey IQ are both good.” He scored 18 goals and had 27 assists in 61 games, with 32 of his 45 points coming at even strength. He provided solid offense in a depth role but needs to continue to work on the defensive side of the game.
From reading scouting reports on Thurkauf it seems like he’s had success as he's been able to use his size and strength to bully other players, as opposed to beating them with his skill. This is a concern as once you start moving up the ladder this advantage is neutralized, as you no longer can beat up on teenagers, all players are equally as big and strong as you are. DEV gives him a 5.94% chance of playing in the NHL a player worth a pick in the 140-167 range. Of 225 comparable players 15 went on to have a successful NHL career, most notably Wayne Simmonds. Where DEV lacks is in evaluating outside factors that could affect performance.
This is something that Quinn MacKeen
discussed when looking at the Toronto Maple Leafs picks. The Leafs went against the grain and took a bunch of overaged and underperforming players. MacKeen showed that the Leafs have had plenty of success drafted overaged players from Europe. He explained that North Americans, in particular the CHL are set up so that they can hit their stride around 18 years old and set themselves up to be drafted. In Europe the players don’t follow this same development pattern which can lead to players being so called “late bloomers.” Overaged European players may be an even bigger market inefficiency than CHL overagers.
MacKeen also talked about how difficult it can be for Europeans coming over to the CHL. They have to adjust to a new country, a new team and a new style of game. Thurkauf had played in Switzerland his whole life before coming over to the WHL this year. The team a player plays on is a big factor as well. Thurkauf played on a strong Rockets team that finished second in the Weston Conference. They were a talented team making it hard to get ice time in the top six or power play time. At least four players from the Rockets top six will be graduating meaning there will be opportunities for a player like Thurkauf to step up and show he can be a top six player. He’s unlikely to become Wayne Simmonds but you can see why he was underrated by DEV.
Picking Calvin Thurkauf raised some eyebrows at the draft floor. At first glance he is an overaged prospect who scored just 0.74 points per game in the WHL. Digging deeper he may be a player who is severely undervalued. He is from Switzerland so he's not on the same development path as a North American born player, he's in his first season in North America and had to deal with those adjustments, he was on a strong team and was buried in a depth role. Adding those together and you have a much more interesting prospect than first realized. The goal now would be for Thurkauf to earn a top six role in Kelowna and further improve his overall game. If he can do that he will climb up the Blue Jackets prospect ranks.
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