Over the course of the next week or so I am going to release divisional previews. I will be starting in the West and work my way East and finish with the Metropolitan Division. These previews will provide the order that I believe each time will finish in and some general thoughts about what the 2016-17 season has in store for each team.
San Jose
The Sharks are the defending Western Conference Champions and I see no reason for them to fall off from being a top end team. All of their key parts will be back. They added Mikkel Boedker to the roster, but if they don’t find power play time for him (why would they?) then I don’t know how much of an impact he is actually going to have compared to what they think they’re getting. Sure having a higher quality of teammate will help but at even-strength over the past three years he only has a 5v5 points per 60 of 1.42.
Biggest question: Can Joe Thornton continue to defy time? Joe Thornton is still one of the best players in the league. He will need to continue to be that good for this team to reach full potential. I happen to think that he will be excellent again in 2016-17.
I think they are the best team in the division heading into the season.
Los Angeles
A lot of statistical models have Los Angeles as the top team in the Conference. On one hand I can see it because Darryl Sutter has a track record of making every Kings team he has coached a possession monster. I also look at the Pacific Division and see a team that drives possession winning a lot of games against weaker teams. However, Darryl Sutter teams have historically struggled on the shooting percentage front which can lead to offensive struggles. There are legitimate concerns with this team heading into the 2016-17 season.
Biggest question: Where is the offense coming from? Anze Kopitar, Jeff Carter, Tyler Toffolli, and Marian Gaborik are all talented players. They are going to positively contribute for the team. Past that where is the offense coming from? Milan Lucic and Kris Versteeg were two of the top six even-strength drivers of offense in LA last year. They are both gone. Every other forward other than Tanner Pearson (1.68) was below the 1.50 threshold which signifies 4th line or worse production. If this team runs into any injury issues they will be in trouble.
If the Kings are going to rely on low scoring games (my prediction) they are going to need Jonathan Quick to play like a Vezina caliber goaltender. The problem is that his track record speaks to him being a slightly above average goaltender. Quick’s play is going to be under a microscope this year if his offense is unable to assist towards achieving victory.
I believe this is as vulnerable as they’ve been since rising to one of the best teams in the league. The lower end teams of the Pacific Division should be enough to solidify their ability to make the playoffs.
Anaheim
This is a team that was heading in the right direction and has since overreacted to some Game 7 losses. Bruce Boudreau is one of the best coaches in the league and he took the fall for underachieving goaltending in those Game 7 losses. Every full season Boudreau has coached in the NHL his team has won the division. The Anaheim Ducks have since moved on to one of the worst coaches in the NHL with their former coach Randy Carlyle. He is a drain on possession and is still in love with all the character and grit narratives he can latch on to. Don't take my word for it.
Anaheim’s roster is still probably good enough to overcome the change in coach to do OK in a bad division.
Biggest question: How much of a negative impact will Randy Carlyle have on the roster? We have a large enough sample for both Carlyle and Boudreau that we can confidently say that Boudreau helps his teams drive possession and Carlyle does the opposite. Randy Carlyle did win a championship with Anaheim but Chris Pronger and Scott Niedermayer are not walking through that door to play 30 minutes a night to hide the coach’s possession shortcomings.
There have been rumblings that Anaheim is looking to offload a contract of significance to make room for Hampus Lindholm’s new deal. Is that going to be Ryan Kesler or Cam Fowler? The Ducks would do well to rid themselves of the Kesler contract but it will be way easier to move Fowler.
I still think this team will make the playoffs due to the division they play in. With Boudreau I would have had them challenging for the division. Instead they will compete for third overall
Calgary
This is a team that is poised to make some noise in 2016-17. Slowly but surely they have started to put together a collection of players that are good enough to compete for a playoff spot. They have a bonafide star in Johnny Gaudreau. They just need to buck up and pay him the 8M per year he wants. They will get their money’s worth out of it. They will be paying for future performance and not past performance. They have other talented forwards such as Sean Monahan, Sam Bennett, Michael Frolik, and Mikael Backlund to help contribute to the offense. I’m not a huge fan of the Troy Brouwer contract but he isn’t a bad player and will help the team.
Calgary’s defense has a very strong top three. Mark Giordano, TJ Brodie, and Dougie Hamilton are all strong players. Dennis Wideman and Jyrki Jokipakka are both serviceable but Ladislav Smid will need to be heavily sheltered.
Biggest question: Can Brian Elliott continue to play well? This can make or break the season. Calgary made a great trade to acquire Elliott’s services from the St. Louis Blues. In his five years with the Blues he ranks third overall in EVSV% at .932. Only Tuukka Rask (.933) and Henrik Lundqvist (.933) have been better. Elliott doesn’t need to hit it out of the park for Calgary he just needs to be league average (.922) or better. Last year Calgary ranked dead last in EVSV% at .911. It ruined their season. By just adding Elliott the team will be much improved.
The problem with finishing in fourth in the Pacific Division is that you might miss the playoffs. The Central Division is loaded and if things turn out like last year the Central could send five teams to the playoffs again leaving the Pacific with only three teams. Calgary is hoping that LA’s offense dries up and the Carlyle effect buries Anaheim so they can take at least third place and lock in a playoff spot.
Edmonton
I feel like this team is a hamster running around in a wheel. No matter how hard the hamster churns its feet it doesn’t go anywhere. You can gift the Oilers the next best player in the sport, but you can’t prevent them from making a trade like the one that saw Taylor Hall leave for a second pairing defenseman. They basically traded away one of the best left wingers in the game for a Jeff Petry replacement.
At the very least this team should be fun to watch. Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Jordan Eberle, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Jesse Puljujarvi are a great core to build from. The supporting cast is not bad either with Milan Lucic, Benoit Pouliot, and Nail Yakupov. The forward grouping even without Hall is decent.
Biggest question: Is the defense good enough? It isn’t fair to judge Adam Larsson based on something he had no say in. He is a decent second pairing defenseman and should help improve the Edmonton blue line. Andrej Sekera isn’t quite as good as he used to be but is a competent defender. Oscar Klefbom is a solid player and I like the risk the Oilers took by locking him up for a long time before he hits his peak as a player. The real key here is going to be the potential emergence of Darnell Nurse. Eventually Nurse is going to have to help play a significant role on the Edmonton blue line to shore up the top four. If he doesn’t it won’t matter how good the forwards are because they’ll never get the puck with speed through transition.
On the goaltending front they will need to get more than they did in 2015-16. They were the third worst team in the NHL in EVSV%. On a team that has warts you aren’t going to win enough games to make the playoffs if that doesn’t improve. Cam Talbot was league average last year but I’m not sure how Jonas Gustavsson is going to help considering he has a large sample of being below average.
As it stands I don’t believe the Oilers are better than the Flames and that is going to make things incredibly difficult to make the playoffs.
Arizona
Eventually the Coyotes might be able to rise above their current status but for right now there was just too much for newly minted GM John Chayka to do. When some of your biggest moves in the offseason are to acquire salary for players that no longer play meaningful minutes in the league you know you have a rebuilding situation going on.
Biggest question: Will they win too many games? Clearly they do not have aspirations for the playoffs in 2016-17. This is a team that would love to acquire yet another top draft pick to add to some of their other younger prospects (Domi, Duclair, Strome, Perlini, Keller). There is so much more value in losing for the Coyotes than winning yet somehow despite being motivated to fail they still may find a way to not finish last in the division.
Vancouver
Is there team in a worse spot in the NHL right now than the Vancouver Canucks? I don’t think so. They have two great players in the Sedins but they are aging and make a lot of money. Realistically the team should be looking to trade them, but the fact they control their destiny and will want to stay together makes this a situation where they will probably ride things out with them. That is a disadvantage when you have a team that should be gutting their roster.
Biggest question: When does this team accept reality and start their rebuild? Making things more problematic is the fact the GM doesn’t realize that should be the course of action. He thinks they are a playoff contender. The longer the Canucks are in denial the longer it is going to take for them to return to Cup contender status.
As far as the roster for 2016-17 is concerned they should have one of the best top lines in hockey with the Sedins pairing up with their World Cup linemate Louis Eriksson. Past that is a lot of blah. The Pittsburgh Penguins found out the hard way that Brandon Sutter was not an ideal third line center for a competing team. The Canucks view him as their second line center…
On defense they have one of the more underrated players in the league in Chris Tanev, but they also play one of the worst players in the league with Luca Sbisa. Alex Edler remains a good possession player but one that does not contribute much offense at 5v5 these days.
Ryan Miller is another year older, but his 2015-16 year was his best since leaving Buffalo. He could see a decrease in the amount of action he sees if Jacob Markstrom is finally ready for legitimate NHL work after teasing his ability for many years.
The worst thing that can happen for Vancouver is that they hang around the lower end of the playoff picture and buy at the trade deadline. You can’t put it past management to do just that.
That’s how I see the Pacific. Central Division is up next.
Thanks for reading!
Pittsburgh Penguins Blogger • 
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