Over the course of the next week or so I am going to release divisional previews. I will be starting in the West and work my way East and finish with the Metropolitan Division. These previews will provide the order that I believe each time will finish in and some general thoughts about what the 2016-17 season has in store for each team.
Today is the Atlantic Division
Tampa Bay
One of the best teams in the league. They have a great blend of talent and should continue to be a forced to be reckoned with in 2016-17. They certainly have some cap issues to sort out but that shouldn’t have an overly negative impact on the current season. Yes, Nikita Kucherov remains unsigned but until another NHL team gets the guts to actually make an offer sheet to a young budding star I’m going to assume the status quo. Eventually Kucherov will be signed.
Biggest question: What moves do they make to navigate the cap? While I don’t think Steve Yzerman is going to do anything drastic that will impact 2016-17 that doesn’t mean he won’t sacrifice a little bit of the now to keep the future open. The goalie market is a tricky thing to peg down but I assume at some point Ben Bishop will be moved. While that will hurt goaltending depth it shouldn’t compromise their ability to compete due to Andrei Vasilevskiy. I also wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to move on from Valtteri Filppula if at all possible.
Re-signing Steven Stamkos is a clear sign they are in it to win now and I don’t see why the team who was one game away from the Stanley Cup Final cannot find great success in 2016-17.
Florida
I’m buying in. This is a team on the rise and I believe they can build off of last year’s success. They had one of the best producing first lines in all of hockey with Jonathan Huberdeau, Alex Barkov, and the ageless wonder, Jaromir Jagr. The team should be rock solid in net with both Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. One or both of them will be playing at an acceptable level at all times, at least I assume.
Biggest question: Can they replace Brian Campbell? Losing Campbell stings. He is still one of the best puck facilitators in the league. He drives possession and makes life easier for both his partner and the forwards on the ice. I think Florida did a decent enough job on this front. Long term the Yandle contract might not be great but in the now he is still a very skilled player who gives the Panthers what they need. Signing the underrated Jason Demers from Dallas was also a strong move. We all saw how the Dallas forwards were able to attack the league last year and part of the reason was having players like Jason Demers getting them the puck.
Florida has some nice players outside of their first line with guys like Vincent Trochek, Nick BJugstad (injured for 4 weeks), Reilly Smith, and Jussi Jokinen. Florida went analytics heavy with their front office and while not every move they make will pay off I believe they will avoid the ones that can really hurt a team. Florida will be an interesting team to track at the trade deadline.
Montreal
The Canadiens did not have the best offseason. However, that does not mean they cannot compete in the Atlantic Division in 2016-17. There were some things that were overlooked last season as a result of Carey Price’s injury. They were a better possession team in 2015-16 than they were in 2014-15 when they made the playoffs. The problem was that Marc Bergevin replaced Carey Price with players who performed well below average. The improvements they did make were buried by poor goaltending. Fast forward to this year…
Biggest question: Can Carey Price stay healthy? For Montreal to have a chance at doing good things they need Price. He looked great in the World Cup of Hockey and nothing suggests that he won’t be great in the regular season for Montreal. Al Montoya should provide them with better play in the backup position, but the team needs Price because the roster is probably not as good as it was in 2015-16.
Let’s talk about the elephant in the room. Shea Weber is now on the team. What does that mean? He isn’t as good as PK Subban, but he is still a good player. The drop off in talent should not bury Montreal, at least not yet. Weber has ten years left on his deal and that isn’t going to work out for the team but in 2016-17 he should be fine.
Signing Alexander Radulov was a great move for the team. Anytime you can acquire real skill at an agreeable rate of pay without giving up assets is a good day for a GM.
The best move this team can make remains a change at the head coaching position. They need somebody who is more forward thinking to get the most out of this roster because if they don’t perform optimally their ceiling does not include going deep in the playoffs, Price or not.
Boston
They aren’t quite the team they used to be but they should be competitive enough to scrape out a playoff spot in 2016-17. Brad Marchand probably won’t score another 37 goals, but the duo of Bergeron and Marchand will remain an excellent combo. The team couldn’t resist the grit and compete of David Backes and gave him a ridiculous contract. Again, this is one of those situations that helps in 2016-17, but isn’t going to age well as time goes on. The team will need David Pastrnak to have a breakout year. He had 26 points in 51 games last year which is a nice start to his career. Even better was the fact he had a 2.06 5v5 points per 60 which means he was making the most of his ice time. Only David Krejci was better in 2015-16.
Biggest question: Can the defense hold up? This defense corp. is hinging a lot on an aging Zdeno Chara to do the things that we have taken for granted over the years. I don’t think that is fair to Chara and I’m not sure he is capable of it anymore. Torey Krug is a good player but past that what does this unit have going for it?
The Bruins remain solid in net with Tuukka Rask. He just needs to keep playing like the goalie that he is. By doing so it will give the team in front of him (specifically defense corp.) the wiggle room they need to be competitive.
Detroit
This may be the year their impressive playoff streak comes to an end. It's really a coin flip. This is a team that is still trying to transition from the Lidstrom, Datsyuk, Zetterberg, Franzen led glory days. They are still a decent team but they are far from the yearly postseason lock they've been.
Biggest question: How many bottom six forwards is too many? The biggest problem with the Red Wings in recent years has been their fascination with players that are best suited for the bottom six. Here are players currently under contract that fit that bill: Justin Abdelkader, Darren Helm, Joe Vitale, Drew Miller, Steve Ott, and Luke Glendening. You could argue based on production that a player like Tomas Jurco has been closer to bottom six than top six. Thomas Vanek is a possession blackhole with depreciating offensive skill. There isn't a ton going on for Detroit at hte forward position considering that Zetterberg's health makes him unreliable.
The defense corp. for Detroit isn't much better. Brendan Smith, Mike Green, and Danny Dekeyser are the best three. They will treat NIklas Kronwall like he is when he's not. Jonathan Ericsson isn't much better. The ability to drive play from the back end is sorely lacking. That will make things even more difficult for the few talented forwards they have (Larkin, Nyqvist, Tatar, Nielsen).
Petr Mrazek has played really well for Detroit and is now the starter. It isn't a bad thing that he has emerged to take the job. It's just problematic in the sense they just gave Jimmy Howard big money and paying 10 million dollars for goaltending is going to have a negative impact on the ability to improve what looks to be a flawed roster.
Toronto
Toronto is on the up and up. They bottomed out. They got what they needed from it and now they can start building this team back up again. They have one of the best coaches in the league to get the most out of whatever roster he has at his disposal which will also help this rebuilding process.
Biggest question: Will Mike Babcock trust the kids enough to give them the keys? In Detroit the Red Wings would famously let their young prospects hone their craft in the AHL longer than most teams. Toronto has a lot of young high end talent that is probably read yfor the NHL (Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Kasperi Kapanen, Nikita Zaitsev). It would be a real treat if all of those players joined Auston Matthews on the big club this year. Experience is overrated. Skill and speed don't care how old you are. If the Maple Leafs accommodate that talent they will be better for it.
Defensively the Leafs have a couple of really solid players in Jake Gardiner and Morgan Reilly. Past that it is a little bit sketchy and the weakness of this team. I see no reason why they can't let Nikita Zaitsev learn on the job and give him minutes.
Goaltending should be fine. They may have overpaid to acquire Frederick Andersen, but they underpaid for backup Jhonas Enroth.
They need a lot of things to go right this year but they are certainly on the right path to being relevant again.
Ottawa
This feels a lot like Vancouver East to me. A team that is putting on a facade of competing but has no real shot of doing just that. At least as far as winning a championship goes. The team certainly is not void of having some good talent. They have the best defenseman in the league. Mike Hoffman and Mark Stone are solid and in their prime. Derek Brassard, Bobby Ryan, and Kyle Turris help round things out. The problem is that the supporting cast is non-existent.
Biggest question: Can Clarke MacArthur play? MacArthur has had the misfortune of dealing with concussions for an extended period of time. After missing all of four games last year he made his return to the ice at training camp only to be buried from behind by some nobody. MacArthur is a very good player and not having him hurts the Senators. For the Senators to be competitive I feel as though they need a player like MacArthur to be productive. Otherwise they need to many things to go right just to make the playoffs.
Erik Karlsson is going to do his thing and the best thing about it is that he doesn't need help from anybody to do it. Which is good news because there isn't much help coming from this defense corp. Cody Ceci has done an OK job generating offense but he has yet to figure out the possession part to his game. Dion Phaneuf is probably a fine #4 but that isn't what he is here.
Buffalo
Buffalo did the right thing in gutting their team and tanking for McEichel, but the hardest part was always going to be building this team back up again. They have a nice core of forwards with Jack Eichel, Ryan O'Reilly, Sam Reinhart, Evander Kane, and Kyle Okposo. Depth is where a lot of the work with this team remains
Biggest question: How do they improve the defense position? This is a real weakness for the team. Rasmus Ristolainen is neither as good as Sabres fans think nor as bad as some of the analytics folks think. He is talented, but he has literally no help. They lean on him like a true #1 guy but he bleeds shots at even-strength. He needs help and right now there isn't any. This seems like the appropriate time to give Tyler Ennis some advantageous minutes to boost up his value so they can move him for a defenseman. Cam Fowler for Tyler Ennis is something I have thought of as a realistic option for both teams.
The goaltending tandem for this team has more questions than answers. The Sabres traded a first round pick for Lehner, but that has no guarantee of panning out. With a team that will still give up a ton of shot volume you kind of need a better option in goal to survive the onslaught. The Sabres are getting better, it just isn't good enough yet.
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Brand new Hockey Hurts podcast previews both the Central and Pacific Divisions. You can find that
here
Thanks for reading
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