Edmonton’s hot start to the year has cooled off a bit, as evidenced by the 2-4-1 record in their last 7 games. San Jose and Anaheim have been surging to catch up to the Oilers. While they still own the top spot in the Pacific, they will need to turn things around if they want to keep that distinction.

Edmonton’s PDO has normalized during this stretch. The Oilers are now sitting at a very normal 100.1 on the season. What that means is simply that the sky high shooting percentage has dropped down to earth. The team is still in the top half for shooting and save percentage 5v5, just in normal range.

One of the things to worry about in this stretch has been that the club still has that self-destructive breakdown at least twice per game. Often it’s been in the first 5 minutes of the game then again late. Starting and closing out the game has been a problem. Every team makes mistakes, that’s hockey. But these are avoidable errors.

That’s also the good news about the stretch. Some of these problems can indeed be corrected. There’s no reason a team can be responsible from minutes 5-55 but not from 1-60. There’s also a fix for lazy plays like the one that Eberle made in the last game. All that last problem requires is for the Oilers to hold their players responsible. It’s only difficult with Eberle because he’s never had to be before.

Ultimately, I’ve felt like the Oilers have been “in” all of the games they’ve lost. The only game I thought the team didn’t have a chance all year was against the Sabres. Team statistics for things like shots, Corsi, and Fenwick all place the Oilers in the middle of the pack. They perform generally like an “average” NHL team.

If you’ve been on this ride as long as I have then being “average” is a massive improvement for the Oilers. They haven’t been able to be called average in a very, very long time. Just last year the Oilers were bottom 3rd in all of those fancy stat categories. With the return of some players from injury the club might even be able to get a small boost (Edmonton is missing minor players).

Where are the biggest boosts coming from? Who has contributed to the biggest change to Edmonton’s fortunes? Jesse Puljujarvi is leading Edmonton in CF% but he’s also getting sheltered minutes. In terms of drivers it looks like McDavid, Nurse, and Klefbom are the ones pushing the team forward. Klefbom and McDavid were injured for large portions of last season. Nurse was ineffective as a rookie. Healthy seasons and a big step forward are helping Edmonton in a huge way.

I don’t think the Oilers have been as bad as their record in the last 7 games suggests. They might be average, but with McDavid and Talbot an otherwise average team has a chance to win every night.

LINEUP

Drake Caggiula was spotted on the ice recently, but isnt expected to make his debut altogether very soon. Kassian will return to action tonight.

Maroon McDavid Eberle
Pouliot RNH Puljujarvi
Lucic Draisaitl Pitlick
Lander Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Benning
Nurse Gryba

Talbot
Gustavsson

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Board Up The Windows. The New York Rangers are the coming storm. They are an offensive force like a hurricane. You cant stop them. You just try to survive them. With a 5v5 Sh% of 12.7% this group is crushing teams. Even their long distance shots are finding the back of the net. With 4.13 goals per game they are averaging half a goal per game better than THE NEXT HIGHEST SCORING TEAM IN THE NHL. They average almost 1.25 more goals per game than the Oilers. They have 10 players with at least 10 points and have played just 15 games. I think it’s very much percentage driven and a crash will come, but right now this is a scary team.

2) Responsibility. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a thousand time: It is time for Jordan Eberle to be held accountable for his awful defense. As long as he’s picking up his points, Jordan Eberle has been exempt from criticism of his lazy plays in the defensive zone. If Edmonton wants to get to the next level then they need this extremely important player to start giving a crap when he doesn’t have the puck. Edmonton has laid the expectation to become more competitive defensively at every other player’s feet. Time to close the last loophole. Edmonton cannot afford to have a player logging 18 and a half minutes a night with McDavid if his plan is to only play on 2/3rds of the ice surface.

3) Another Chance. The team blew their chance to take advantage of a tired club when Lehtonen posted 40 saves to steal the game. The Stars were playing their 3rd game in 4 nights and the back half of back-to-back games. The Rangers had three days rest leading up to their game against the Flames last night, but this is still a back-to-back scenario. Once again, their starter played last night so we should be seeing the backup or a weaker Lundqvist. Edmonton has to start taking advantage of anything they can. However they want to play, with speed or with physicality, the plan has to be to wear out the Rangers as quickly as possible. If the Flames had put up a bigger fight that would be an easier task. Unfortunately Calgary basically rolled over last night.

Puck drops tonight at 7:30 PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet 1. Game On!

Follow me on Twitter @Archaeologuy

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