Nick Foligno is having a tremendous start to his 2016-17 season. In just 13 games he has six goals and 16 points, already halfway to the 12 goals and 37 points he had last season. So what is behind this success? His shooting percentage is obviously the big one; he currently leads the league shooting 33.3%, but has something else in his game changed to help increase that shooting percentage?
A player’s shooting percentage is influenced by many factors, notably, shot volume, and shot quality. There is a player talent aspect to it as well, a shot from Steven Stamkos is much more likely to go in than a shot from Jared Boll, but as you move away from the ends of the spectrum it gets trickier, and harder to quantify so we will stick to shot volume and shot quality.
Shot Volume
Anytime you see a player scoring on a third of their shots, you know regression is coming. Even the elite shooters in the game don’t shoot that high over a full season. Usually the best players in the league end up around 19-20% over an 82 game season. Eventually the goals are going to stop going in for Foligno as his shooting percentage normalizes. He can offset that though by just taking more shots. To show shot volume we can look at Foligno’s Corsi For and Shots For per 60 minutes, both when he is on the ice and what he generates individually.
All data gathered from
Corsica.
His Corsi For (CF60) is right around the same as last year, which is slightly above his breakout season in 2014-15. His individual Corsi For (iCF60) is down from last season but right in line with his 14-15 season. The decline has come in terms of having shots actually hit the net. Both his shots for per 60 (SF60) and his individual shots for per 60 (iSF60) are down. He has not been a volume shooter this season at 5 on 5.
Let’s now take a look at his power play stats.
On the power play this season Foligno has two goals and five assists. He has been one of the biggest beneficiaries of the Blue Jackets strong power play. The team has a much higher CF60 and SF60 when Foligno has been on the ice this season than the two previous ones. Foligno however has not been the ones taking these additional shots. His individual Corsi For and Shots For are both down.
Shot Quality
Foligno’s individual shot volume may be down this season but perhaps he is taking higher quality shots. Shot quality is something the analytics community hasn’t yet figured out. Everyone knows that certain shots are better than others, but quantifying that is difficult. Right now the best indicators of shot quality are scoring chances and shot distance. We know that players are far more likely to score the closer they are to the net. If Foligno has been generating more scoring for chances for himself and his line-mates, he will score more goals and have more assists.
Much like in the first graph above, at 5 on 5 Foligno has not been as good as in seasons prior. He is not creating as many scoring chances for himself or his line-mates. One bright spot here is his shot distance is down from last season. He is getting closer to the net, but it is still not to the level we saw in 14-15.
The power play though is where we really start to see why Foligno has had success.
When Foligno has been on the ice, the Jackets have close to double the amount of scoring chances for as the years prior. Foligno has been able to get more individual scoring chances, as his shot distance is way down. You can really see here why he struggled on the power play last season. He was taking shots from about 20 feet out which is just way too far when you have the space you do on the power play.
It’s still early but Nick Foligno looks to be on his way to another big season. He is scoring over a point per game, and while that isn’t going to last, he is going to blow past the 37 points he had last season. At 5 on 5 he has been close to the same player he has always been. His shot volume and shot quality stats are down but not enough to raise any serious concerns. The big change has come on the power play, where Foligno has been a big part of generating more shots and higher quality shots than in years past. His shooting percentage is very high and is going to regress but if the Blue Jackets power play continues to be successful, Foligno’s overall stat line shouldn’t suffer much.
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