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In this edition we look at some teams playing over their heads that will likely come down to earth and/or regress in the coming weeks.
Todd Cordell
I'll go with the Ottawa Senators. They own a solid 10-6-1 record but I still am not sold they're actually good.
At 5 v 5 they are 24th in shot attempt for% and 28th in scoring chance for%. They have been consistently out played at 5 v 5 but have won games in large part due to incredible good, and also unsustainable, goaltending from Craig Anderson. At some point his .934 save percentage will drop and, if the Sens don't start playing better in front of them, the losses will follow.
James Tanner
There are three main teams that are playing way above their heads and are due to regress: Chicago, Montreal and the Rangers.
The Rangers will not be able to score as often as they have been and will eventually be done in by their bad defense. Luckily, they maintain one of the best goalies of all-time, so they won't fall too far. They just aren't a 'best in the league' kind of team. Capitals, Lightning, Penguins and Panthers all have better rosters.
Montreal is even in worse position because while they have an even better goalie, they have an even worse defense. They are in the middle of the pack in possession and are just over 50% which isn't where you have to be to be at the top of the league. If they aren't surpassed by the Leafs during this season, then Carey Price needs to be the first player inducted into the hall of fame during a season in which he is currently still playing.
The Hawks are the worst of the current top teams and will eventually lose six or eight in a row to balance out their so far incredible luck. People just assume the Hawks are awesome because they have been for so long, but I still think they'll miss the Playoffs this year because they can't kill penalties and are just barely over 50% possession so far. Corey Crawford is an early MVP candidate.
Peter Tessier
These questions are tough because it's easy to look at rookies and say- 'hey this is unsustainable' or players who just happen to be excelling out of the norm for their career.
As I look at the league I come back to the team I follow the closest and that's the Jets. In all likelihood I can see Scheifele settling back from his current pace and perhaps Laine too. While these are excellent players they seem to be way ahead of expectations. I'm not looking at stats right now to quantify though.
The other one I feel has to come back to earth- much like the whole team is Weber. Did he find the fountain of youth or a system built around him? Did the whole team?
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