Barely hanging onto the last playoff spot in the conference at 20-17-4, the Los Angeles Kings will look to establish their postseason position in the second half of this year. But before they take on the visiting Blues tonight at Staples Center, what were some of the interesting stats from an up-and-down first half?
Team
In my quarter-season review, I bemoaned the team's 50.0 5v5 High-danger Corsi For %. That figure is up to 52.3 now. This means that recently, they've done a better job of controlling scoring chances in the slot and low slot.
Across the board, LA's underlying stats continue to be encouraging: They're second in the league with a 54.6 5v5 Corsi For %, fourth with a 52.9 Scoring Chances For %, and fourth with a 53.1 Expected Goals For %.
They're also fourth in the NHL in 52.83 Expected Goals For % all situations.
Of course, a lot of this is undone by a sixth-worst 1.92 5v5 Goals For/60. I wondered if Los Angeles was earning enough scoring chances? Sure, they suppress the opposition's, but were they getting their own?
Currently, their 13th-ranked 8.42 5v5 Scoring Chances For/60 is slightly better than average. In this case, I'm using Corsica's definition of scoring chances, which is not too far from Natural Stat Trick's High-danger Corsi. So essentially, we're talking about slot and low slot opportunities. Anyway, looking at the recent past, the Kings can certainly improve -- but probably not by much:
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Why would a team like LA which favors "shot mentality" suffer from a relative dearth of high-quality chances? It goes back to the thinking behind "shot mentality," which generally speaking, is more about shooting to pressure the other side -- from almost anywhere. On 5v5, the Kings generally tend to favor shot volume over quality.
Part of this "shot mentality" approach is to never pass up an offensive zone start, which their league-best 35.9 5v5 Offensive Zone Start % supports.
The penalty kill continues to play well after a rough early-season bout. Their seventh-ranked 83.6 PK % is supported by the underlying stats, including an NHL-best 58.3 4v5 Fenwick Against/60 and a fourth-best 4.95 Goals Allowed/60.
But while the PK has
received a lot of attention recently, the power play has likewise improved. On November 13th, 16 games into the season, Los Angeles "boasted" a 9.8 PP %. Since then, spearheaded by Jeff Carter's seven power play goals in this stretch, the Kings have struck on the man advantage at an impressive 23.9.
Forwards
Dustin Brown
At 2.8 Hits/Game, Brown has re-taken the lead atop this category, which he led for 10 straight seasons before last year.
Jeff Carter
The percentage of LA's goals that Carter has scored -- 21.6% as of now -- is well documented. He's also the only player in the league who has tallied over 20% of his team's goals.
Another measure of his contribution is his remarkable 2.43 5v5 Points/60 -- remarkable because all other Kings are averaging under 1.5.
Essentially, at 5v5, LA has one person producing like a first-liner and a bunch of third-liners.
He's also already outpaced his 5v5 production from last year -- he has 11 5v5 goals in 41 games now, as opposed to nine in 77 last season.
The All-Star is also well on his way to breaking a Kings single-season record for game-winning goals. Marcel Dionne (1980-81), Charlie Simmer (1980-81), and Anze Kopitar (2013-14) share the record with nine GWG. Halfway into the season, Carter already has seven.
The NHL record for game-winning goals is 16, held by Phil Esposito (1970-71, 1971-72) and Michel Goulet (1983-84).
Nic Dowd
Dowd's production still stands out on the power play -- his 5.27 5v4 Points/60 ranks second among team forwards. Hopefully, his 1.16 5v5 Points/60 will pick up.
Likewise, Dowd's usage has remained stable, as he's seen the highest concentration of Offensive Zone Starts among forwards -- compare his 44.99 OZS% to Nick Shore's 36.02, and Kopitar's 32.45. This tells us that the captain is the team's most relied-upon defensive center.
Marian Gaborik
It's been a scoring struggle for the Slovakian sniper, but there's hope in his 9.46 5v5 Shots/60 rate, fourth among forwards, and his team-leading 4.9 Individual Scoring Chances For/60.
Dwight King
King's 5v5 possession numbers have lagged without Kopitar (as we'll see shortly). However, his shorthanded work has remained robust. His 47.85 4v5 Fenwick Against/60 is second-lowest among team forwards and the NHL (out of 113 forwards, 50+ 4v5 minutes). Essentially, teams aren't getting a lot of chances on King while he's killing penalties.
Anze Kopitar
Despite his goalscoring drought, everything else is looking right about the Slovenian, suggesting we'll get a turnaround.
His +5.05 5v5 Corsi For % Relative tops the team. Just look at how Kopitar's most frequent wings play without him:
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His team-leading 60.25 5v5 Scoring Chances For % and 62.26 High-danger Corsi For % are fifth and third in the NHL, respectively (out of 317 forwards, 300+ 5v5 minutes).
Kopitar could stand to pop in a power play goal -- he has zero this year, shades of his 2012-13 man advantage marker shutout.
Interestingly, on the power play, he has a phenomenal faceoff winning %:
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From 2014-17, Kopitar is third in league with a 61.5 PP FOW %, behind only Jonathan Toews and Jordan Staal.
And in my favorite illustration of his importance to the Kings, Kopitar remains the only forward in the league to lead his team in even strength (15:44/gm), short-handed (1:58/gm), and power play (3:03/gm) ice time.
Trevor Lewis
Don't laugh, but Lewis leads the team with a 6.59 5v5 Individual Expected Goals. Remember that Expected Goals doesn't take shooting talent in account -- but it tells us that Lewis has had a lot of quality scoring chances this year. To his credit, Lewis has actually scored five, so he's not far behind his expected total.
Tanner Pearson
Pearson's recent revival has earned him second-most 5v5 goals on the team with eight and a team-leading 14.55 5v5 shooting %.
Devin Setoguchi
Setoguchi has progressed past just a pleasant story. He's still a useful player, albeit one who hasn't and may never find his old scoring touch. His +10.04 5v5 Relative Scoring Chances For % and +6 Penalty Differential are first and second on the team, respectively.
Nick Shore
Shore is first on the team and in the league with a 47.75 4v5 Fenwick Against/60 (out of 113 forwards, 50+ 4v5 minutes).
Defense
Drew Doughty
LA's number-one defender also leads the blueline with a sterling 55.8 High-danger Corsi For %. His +1.72 Relative Expected Goals For % is second.
Derek Forbort
Surprisingly, Forbort paces the defense with 11 5v5 points.
Also endearing him to the Kings is his team-leading 88 shot blocks.
Forbort is one of the team's four defensive regulars on the PK with 1:51 SH TOI/game -- it's worth noting that since Brayden McNabb's return, McNabb has been used very little on the PK. In fact, Forbort has even played more on the power play than McNabb in this short stretch.
That said, Forbort could stand to improve his 49.0 5v5 Scoring Chances For %, which is lowest among regular LA skaters.
Kevin Gravel
Gravel has boasted a solid +2.11 5v5 Relative Corsi For % this year, but he's also been given a defense-easiest 22.69 5v5 Defensive Zone Starts %. Unlike Forbort, Gravel is still being used like a rookie.
Alec Martinez
You can contrast Gravel's 22.69 5v5 DZS% with Martinez's team-toughest 33.33 and Muzzin's 32.86.
In terms of ice time, Martinez is now neck and neck with Muzzin as the team's number-two defender. Muzzin has been the clear number-two the last couple seasons, but Martinez has creeped ahead this year with a 22:29 ATOI, compared to his regular partner's 21:54.
Martinez's career campaign is All Star-worthy -- his 55.38 5v5 Scoring Chances For %, +4.15 Relative Scoring Chances For %, and +2.32 Relative Expected Goals For % pace the squad. I would've had no complaints if Martinez had been selected ahead of Doughty for the All-Star Game -- not to take away from the Norris incumbent's strong first half.
Jake Muzzin
Muzzin's production has taken a hit this year -- he could use a power play secondary assist. He has none this season, after 12 over the last two years. There's often a randomness to secondary assists, but it probably doesn't help that Muzzin hasn't seen as much time on the top power play unit as he did before.
That said, Muzzin is still doing a lot things right defensively. His +2.79 5v5 Relative Corsi For % and 53.27 4v5 Fenwick Against lead the defense.
Goalies
Peter Budaj
Budaj's +0.72 5v5 Adjusted Fenwick Save % continues to be a bright spot.
Adjusted Fenwick Save Percentage “shows if a goalie is saving more or less shots than an average NHL goalie would be expected to save if they faced the same quality of unblocked shots.”
Even after that debacle against Dallas, he's 16th of 39 qualified goalies (750+ 5v5 mins) in this category, ahead of bigger names like Martin Jones, Tuukka Rask, Cory Schneider, and Henrik Lundqvist.
Budaj has also played the fifth-most overall minutes in the league, ahead of Braden Holtby and Carey Price, among others.
Stats as of 1/10/17, courtesy of Behind the Net, Corsica, Hockey Analysis, Hockey Reference, Natural Stat Trick, NHL.com, Puckalytics, and Sporting Charts.
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