The Edmonton Oilers are getting prepared to take on the Predators tonight. Subban is set to make his return to the lineup after being activated from IR. The Oilers have been playing great hockey in 2017, though you might say they didn’t exactly have their best effort against the Panthers. Edmonton is now on pace for a roughly 100 point season after mustering just 70 points a year ago.

The reason for the Oiler turnaround is multifaceted, but the number 1 reason is still a healthy Connor McDavid. The NHL’s leading scorer put on a show against the Panthers and asserted himself in regulation, on the Power Play, and in overtime. He played 24:37 last game with 6 shots on goal and 1-2-3 on the night. And, even though I don’t really care, he was 58% in the faceoff circle too.



Overtime McDavid is the most dangerous, naturally, because there’s so much space on the ice that his teammates just need to send the puck to an open area. That’s how his breakaway goal unfolded.

Draisaitl, dog tired at the end of a shift, picks off a pass by Trochek. As soon as McDavid sees that his teammate has possession he heads up ice and to the left from where the defender is located. Leon sees that McDavid is off to the races and that Ekblad has turned back up ice, which left a passing lane completely open.

By the time McDavid gets the puck just beyond center ice, he is already 15 feet ahead of Ekblad. Florida’s top defender never gets closer than 6 feet from McDavid even as 97 begins to deke and stickhandle before the hashmarks. He makes 6 or 7 moves going forehand to backhand and back again until he finally decides on the backhand.

McDavid saw that he scored right away, but it’s hard to tell if he was reacting because Reimer’s skate made it look like the puck hit the netting or if he knew that Reimer’s glove went behind the goalline. What actually happened was that Reimer made the save but his glove pulled back behind the line and thanks to modern camera technology it was easy to confirm McDavid’s goal.

I imagine that with NHL players, on average they are slower at the end of a game than at the beginning. I am even willing to believe that McDavid is slower at the end of a long shift in OT as well. That said, he’s such an effortless skater that even slower than his top-end speed, his dropoff is likely not as severe as the average NHL player. The effect is that even at the end of OT in a game he played almost 25 minutes in he’s basically untouchable with space. Maybe even that effect is MORE SO at the end of the game.

LINEUP

No Brossoit!

Maroon McDavid Draisaitl
Pouliot RNH Eberle
Lucic Caggiula Slepyshev
Lander Letestu Kassian

Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Russell
Davidson Benning

Talbot
Brossoit

OILERS KEYS TO THE GAME

1) Trusting The Backup. The big question for this game (and the next 3, really) is about how much the team and the coaching staff trusts their backup. After being burned too many times by Jonas Gustavsson, it doesn’t surprise me that many Oiler fans and media are suggesting that the team runs Talbot in back to back games. Considering how much the team has relied on Talbot it certainly seems at times like they don’t have any other options. Brossoit has struggled at the AHL level, but one can easily forget about his stats because he was out of sight, out of mind. Even a struggling Brossoit who MIGHT not play well is better than a guaranteed disaster performance by Gustavsson. One of the interesting questions with situations like this is about how the team will play in front of their goalie. McLellan is playing Talbot tonight. When do we worry about fatigue or injury?

2) Benning Returns. The team was hurt by a last minute scratching of Matt Benning in the last game. The rookie defender has quickly grown into an integral part of this defense. Gryba as his replacement struggled quite badly in the game against the Panthers. I generally have time for what Gryba brings to the table, but his issues in that game contrasted to what Benning provides were a reminder of what is lost when the college free agent misses time. Benning is not a big body but he’s 3rd on the defense in hits. He wasn’t a heralded prospect but he’s 2nd on the defense in 5v5 points per 60 minutes. He’s just a rookie but he leads the Oiler blueline in shot attempt percentage. He makes quick decisions and can skate. Though he’s not flashy, he has more than enough skill to make his game work. His return to the lineup is a huge boost.

3) A Tighter Ship. The Oilers started off the game against the Panthers well then immediately came unglued. The Panthers, undermanned and on the road, should not have been allowed to get back into that game, but Edmonton failed to play the kind of game it was tasked with playing and Florida came right back. The Sekera-Russell pairing, who played extremely well in the OT period, were particularly brutal in regulation. I know that Russell was the 3rd star in that game, but that was a joke. The number of shots that pair allowed compared to their peers was eye opening. That duo can hopefully turn their good overtime into a significantly better overall game against the Predators. They play a huge role for the Oilers and Edmonton needs them to be better.

Puck drops tonight at 7PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet West. Game On!

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