Now we’re really pretty good about ourselves. The Oilers wiped the floor with the Flyers in a game that had big goals, big hits, and an enemy with a target painted on his back all night. It was a great follow up to the drubbing they laid on Arizona. The competition ramps up again in the form of the Chicago Blackhawks.
It’s hard to wrap my mind around this, but it’s true nonetheless, this matchup is not nearly as David vs Goliath as it once was. The Hawks are 2nd in the Western Conference and a hell of a club, no doubt about it. But the Oilers are 4th in the West and just 5 points behind them. This is your weekly reminder that the Oilers are actually good. Oh, and they have Connor McDavid.
Now you don’t need to have a great memory to remember that it has been a week since the Hawks came to town and dropped 5 on the Oil. That game got out of reach by the halfway mark because of some critical failures on special teams. Edmonton allowed the Hawks to go 2/2 on the Power Play and couldn’t muster anything on their own chances, but at 5v5 the Oilers carried play most of the game.
The 5v5 shots in that game were 29-19 for the Oilers. That was cold solace for the team that night. Good process doesn’t guarantee good results, but it helps. In the week since then the Oilers have put up 11 goals in two games carrying the play 5v5 and executing on special teams. This has to be a more confident group that is looking to bounce back from that loss to the Hawks.
So far, the plan to shake up the Oilers by putting their strength back down the middle is paying off. There’s no doubt that the wings are weaker with Draisaitl off of them, but the net effect of being able to throw all four lines out there and knowing there’s a competent centerman on the ice at all times is massive. McLellan will have one of McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, or Letestu out at any given time. It’s a luxury he won’t want to give up until Chiarelli finds him a different option at 3C.
The interesting thing with splitting Draisaitl and McDavid up is that 5v5 the partnership hasn’t really affected Draisaitl’s scoring positively. Leon Draisaitl has a 1.77 P/60 5v5 this season. When he’s with McDavid it dips ever so slightly to 1.73 P/60 (347 minutes) and when he’s without McDavid it floats a little higher to 1.81 P/60 (464 minutes). Conversely, 97 has seen a little boost in his personal production with Draisaitl. He’s producing 5v5 at 2.77 Points per 60 with Drai and 2.69 P/60 without him. The swings aren’t massive, but it seems the Oilers are better served keeping those two on separate attacking lines to spread out the offense.
Strength down the middle is something the Oilers finally have. Let’s see it used against one of the best teams in the West tonight.
LINEUP
Why mess with success?
Maroon McDavid Eberle
Lucic Draisaitl Slepyshev
Caggiula RNH Kassian
Hendricks Letestu Pakarinen
Klefbom Larsson
Sekera Benning
Davidson Gryba
Talbot
Brossoit
OILERS KEYS TO SUCCESS
1) Sleepy Feet. Teams coming off of their bye week have an abysmal record so far.
Per Mark Lazerus of the Chicago Sun Times, teams heading into their bye week were 15-5-0 in their final game before the break and 3-9-1 in the first game back. That is even worse in February where teams are 0-5-0 in that first game back and got spanked through the first 2 periods specifically. That fits with what we saw when the Oilers were used and abused on their return. Turnabout is fair play, I guess. This break and the slump that comes in the first few periods back is real. The Oilers have to capitalize. They have to come with speed and physicality and take advantage of any rust that might on Quenneville’s well oiled machine.
2) Balance. The Oilers have not only balanced their strength on the forward lines to be more evenly distributed down the middle, but they’ve also been able to play with the right balance of lefties and righties on the back end. Given their full and healthy stable of defenders, the only change I would make to this defense is re-insertion of Darnell Nurse onto the 3rd pair. The ratio of lefties to righties is important enough to supersede raw talent at the Olympic/National level. Team Canada is strict with its adherence to balance. By all rights the same reason it is important at that level makes it important at this level as well. I don’t think it’s purely coincidental that the Oilers have been better defensively with 3 lefties and 3 righties in the game. Yeah, the personnel is better, but not so much so that everyone can even agree on that statement. So long as McLellan doesn’t keep trying to make lefties play the right side, there will be benefits to this. It’s easier to play your natural side. Having all three pairings reacting in expected ways makes a difference.
3) Hendo and the Fourth. When the top three lines are expected to be the ones providing the scoring, it makes the 4th line an X-factor in the games. This year, Edmonton’s 4th line has been pleasantly productive. Matt Hendricks is a player that I had written off because of the knee injury he sustained. There’s no question that he’s nearing the end of his career (he’s 35). That said, he has 3 points in his last 2 games. Pakarinen has had 1 point in each of his 2 games since returning from injury. And, Mark Letestu is playing at a 37 point pace as the team’s 4th line center. Just Letestu’s contributions alone make the 4th line a solid contributor. When the wingers are on their game this line becomes a difference maker.
Puck drops tonight at 5PM Mountain Time on Sportsnet. Game On!
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