In five more sleeps, we'll find out whether the painful end to the Vancouver Canucks' season pays off.
The 2017 draft lottery goes Saturday at 5 p.m. PT, before Game 2 of the Pittsburgh/Washington series.
The last couple of lottery shows have been pretty entertaining. Patrik Laine's laid-back late-night interview strayed from the traditional tone of most top candidates.
Of course, Trevor Linden's reaction when the Canucks fell to the fifth pick launched a GIF that keeps on giving.
A reminder of how the draft lottery works: there are three individual drawings to determine the first three picks. All non-playoff teams are included in those drawings, as well as Las Vegas this year.
Once those first three picks are randomly determined, the rest of the draft order will be set, based on the order of finish in the standings—with the lowest-ranked teams getting the highest remaining picks.
Here's a look at all teams' odds of receiving any particular pick:
Here's a look at the Canucks and Jets' odds in the upcoming #NHLDraft Lottery. (@lukefoxjukebox)
Last year, without Vegas, every team's odds of getting a better pick were a little higher than they will be this year.
Here's a reminder of how the Canucks ended up choosing fifth in 2016:
Toronto - finished 30th - retained first pick with the best odds
Winnipeg - finished 25th - won second pick despite having only the sixth-best odds
Columbus - finished 27th - won third pick despite having only the fourth-best odds
The results of those drawings bumped 29th-place Edmonton into the fourth spot, and 28th-place Vancouver into fifth position. Calgary finished in 26th place and was also bumped back one spot, picking sixth despite finishing fifth-last. From there, the rest of the first round proceeded according to the actual order of finish.
As Luke Fox puts it in this article, sometimes "karma is more powerful than math." The Jets went 6-2-2 in their last 10 games last season and ended their year on a four-game winning streak. It worsened their lottery odds, but their ping-pong ball still fell when it came time to determine the second pick, handing them the chance to select Patrik Laine.
Winnipeg employed the same anti-tank strategy down the stretch this year. While the Canucks sunk like a stone by losing their last eight straight games and going 4-15-3 after their last home win of the year on February 18, the Jets finished out their season on a seven-game winning streak this year, which started with their 2-1 win over Vancouver on March 26th.
I haven't looked too closely at this year's draft rankings and player projections just yet—because the draft itself is still two months away, and because we don't know where the Canucks will be picking. Even with their low finish, the odds that the Canucks will land a top-three pick are still only about one-in-three. Mathematically, the most likely outcome of the lottery is that they'll pick fourth.
Last year, Trevor Linden took one of Pat Quinn's hockey cards to the lottery with him, ostensibly for good luck.
Pat Quinn's 1970/71 hockey card will be Trevor Linden's good luck charm for the NHL draft lottery. Good choice pic.twitter.com/lHGzkVJP6k
Will Pat get a second chance to try to improve the team's fortunes this year?
In other news, my playoff bracket got a boost with the wins by the Ottawa Senators and Washington Capitals on Sunday. I got out of the first round with five of eight teams correct, and one correct Round 2 matchup.
I picked Pittsburgh over Washington—again—so I'll stick with that.
In the other series, here's who I like:
• Edmonton over Anaheim in seven. I have to admit, Edmonton impressed me, especially in those last two games of the first round. I'm picking them primarily because I think Cam Talbot is more durable and consistent than John Gibson and because of the Ducks' banged-up blue line. Anaheim's hoping to get Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen back in Round 2, but Hampus Lindholm was hurt in Game 4 against Calgary and might not be available, so youngsters like Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour will probably continue to carry a heavy load.
• Nashville over St. Louis in seven. This is another tough call for me. As great as Pekka Rinne was in Round 1 against Chicago, I'm not sure the 34-year-old will be able to sustain that. The Blues have been much improved since Mike Yeo took over behind their bench—they went 22-8-2 to finish out the regular season after Ken Hitchcock was let go on February 1, tied with Washington for the best record in the league during that stretch.
But I really like Nashville's young scorers—that top line of Ryan Johansen, Filip Forsberg and Viktor Arvidsson is turning out to be really something. I feel like they'll be able to keep breaking games open. This could be the year that the Preds advance past the second round for the first time in their franchise history.
• Ottawa over NYR in seven. Much like Rinne, I feel like 35-year-old Henrik Lundqvist had an extraordinarily good first round against Montreal, which may not be sustainable. Also, the Rangers (and the Blues) struggled on the power play in the first round.
Mostly, though, I'm making this pick with my heart. In the faceoff between Alex Burrows and Alain Vigneault, I'm rooting for Burrows to prevail. For Vigneault, I'm sure it'll be a special series, visiting his home base of Ottawa/Gatineau.
Interesting that the bracket for this series dictates that Ottawa still gets home-ice advantage by virtue of its second-place finish in the Atlantic Division. The Rangers finished the season with four more points (102 vs. 98), but dropped to the first wild-card spot and crossed over because of the strength of their Metropolitan Division.
With no first-round Game 7s for the first time since 2001, Round 2 kicks off on Wednesday with Western Conference games in St. Louis and Anaheim.
Vancouver Canucks Blogger • 
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