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The Anaheim Ducks have an expansion draft problem.
Even if they convince Kevin Bieksa to waive his no-movement clause, they'd still have to go with the 4-4-1 protection plan to keep their big four on defense (Hampus Lindholm, Josh Manson, Cam Fowler and Sami Vatanen). If they were to do that, either Jakob Silfverberg or Rickard Rakell would be left exposed, which isn't happening.
As such, it seems likely the Ducks will move a defenseman in advance of the expansion draft. In this edition of the hotstove, we discuss which one they should part with.
Todd Cordell
I think Sami Vatanen will be the one to go but I'd move Cam Fowler.
That is not a slight on Fowler, who is a really good defenseman. I just think the Ducks could get a lot more for him than Vatanen based on his perceived value league-wide.
If a couple GMs, who could very well be involved in the bidding, think Fowler could get around $8 million per season on the free agent market, it's safe to say his value is sky-high and he's being regarded as an elite player.
If the Ducks trade Fowler they can save some money and fetch a better return than they could for Vatanen. That's the route I'd take.
Adam French
The clear answer is Sami Vatanen in my opinion. Cam Fowler is near enough his equal in offensive prowess if not better. Shea Theodore and Brandon Montour are very promising offensive defenders in their own right. Hampus Lindholm is one of the most effective defensive defenders in the game and Josh Manson is the only player they have that brings his physical style of game. Add to this that they have two intriguing prospects also on their way in Jacob Larsson and Marcus Pettersson...you start to see that the Ducks will have a fairly strong defense for a long time if things pan out.
Vatanen is the odd man out. At 25 (turning 26 in a month), he's still in his prime. He's coming off a mediocre season for him after two straight near 40 point seasons and a rookie year on pace for similar scoring just 3 goals and 24 points. Those are obviously still good numbers with the promise of more. Add to the fact that he is signed to an appropriate 4.8 mil and you will find buyers.
The thing that interests me the most is that if they can't get Bieksa to waive his NMC then they are still in trouble even if they deal Vatanen with regards to forwards. But if he does waive it, then it opens the opportunity to trade Vatanen for a forward who can be protected...otherwise it would have to be picks/prospects because that new forward couldn't be protected anyways.
Bieksa waives, trade Vatanen and you get
Perry
Getzlaf
Kesler
Silfverberg
Rakell
*New Forward or a re-signed Eaves*
Lindholm
Fowler
Manson
Gibson
James Tanner
The Ducks should be looking to move Cam Fowler.
He's the perfect candidate for a trade because he's not as overall effective as Lindholm, Manson or Vatanen.
At the same time, he produces points and that always pays. There is a good chance that Murray can get more for Fowler than he could for Vatanen or Manson, even though he's not as good of a player.
Like Ristolainen in Buffalo and Roman Josi in Nashville, Fowler is good - just not as good as the fans of his team think he is.
He's the one they should trade.
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