Quick Hits: 2017 NHL Draft Countdown
1) Here is how the Flyers' current 11 picks in the 2017 NHL Entry Draft fall in the overall order of selection: 1/2, 2/44, 3/75, 3/80, 4/106, 4/107, 4/108, 5/137, 6/168, 7/199, 7/200.
2) Every year prior to the NHL Entry Draft, I pick a "Sleeper of the Year" candidate: an unheralded Draft-eligible player whom I think has a much higher upside than his publicly projected Draft selection range.
I am not a professional scout, nor do I pretend to be one. Take it all with many grains of salt. I try to put some research into it -- watching game streams and the like -- apart from talking to contacts and surveying the available publications beyond the THN Draft Preview and Central Scouting stuff posted on NHL.com. But I'm not an expert: just an avid watcher with opinions you can take or leave.
Last year, I chose Sarnia Sting (OHL) center Jordan Kyrou as the pre-Draft sleeper. He ended up being selected in the 2nd round (35th overall) by the St. Lous Blues. He went right around his consensus range, but I thought he was more of top 15 range talent. Kyrou had a strong season for Sarnia in his draft-plus-one campaign this season and he even dressed in an AHL game after the Sting were knocked out of the OHL playoff in a sweep by the eventual champion Erie Otters (a powerhouse this season). I think Kyrou is well'positioned to represent Team Canada at the next World Junior Championship.
My 2015 sleeper pick, Swedish center Jakob Forsbacka Karlsson, then with the USHL's Omaha Lancers made his NHL debut this season with the Boston Bruins after two seasons in the NCAA with Boston University. He went in the middle of the second round (45th overall) to the Bruins. What I liked -- and still like -- about the player is that he's fundamentally very sound. There's offensive upside but, if that doesn't pan out, he has the fallback of potentially being a solid checking forward instead. The more potential avenues a player has to the NHL, the better.
When the 2014 Draft was in Philly, I sat next to Randy Miller and talked his ear off about how I thought Brandon Wheat Kings winger Jayce Hawryluk could be worth a late first rounder despite widely divergent projections about his eventual Draft range. He went off the board to Florida with the second pick of the second round (32nd overall). Hawryluk had strong D+1 and D+2 years (actually, as a D+2, he led the Wheaties scoring with a 16-year-old Nolan Patrick four points behind and defenseman Ivan Provorov, now with the Flyers, fourth on the team). This season, Hawryluk had a decent rookie AHL season for Springfield. He did some damage against the Phantoms with points in three of four games against Lehigh Valley.
3) For the 2017 Draft, my choice for Sleeper of the Draft is an easy one in my mind: Sault Ste. Marie Greyhounds center Morgan Frost, who only recently turned 18. His numbers this past year may not look spectacular (20g, 42a, 62 points in 67 games) but he kept getting better and better as the season went along. I fully expect him to take a big leap as a D+1.
Frost, who won the Fastest Skater competitions -- with and without the puck -- at the showcase event before the CHL Top Prospects Game is a very high skill player with far above average stickhandling and playmaking upside. He's become a fixture on the Soo's power play and starting regularly playing top six minutes for Drew Bannister's very deep Greyhounds club. He lacks an overpowering shot but he has a very deceptive release and quick hands. He's got a toe-drag-and-shoot move that has become an effective weapon to keep opposing defenses honest.
I watched a lot of Greyhounds game streams this past season -- about a dozen, interspersed across the year -- and Frost rapidly became my personal favorite among a very talented group of players who seem destined for the NHL: winger Boris Katchouk (Tampa Bay second-round pick last year, and periodic Frost linemate), defenseman Conor Timmins (a potential 1st round pick later this month), Tim Gettinger (a New York Rangers fifth-rounder last year who took a strong developmental jump this season), Jack Kopacka (Anaheim 4th rounder last year who had an ATO in the AHL after a 30-goal season for the Soo this year). Mid-season acquisition Noah Carroll (a defenseman selected by Carolia in the sixth round last year) is a steady presence who has at least an outside shot of a pro career.
For the 2018 Draft, meanwhile, keep an eye on Barret Hayton (very high two-way upside, potential 1st round caliber). Offensive-minded defenseman Mac Hallowell, undersized but crafty, also has a shot at being a second-round or third-round range prospect for next year's Draft if he keeps developing.
I'll throw one more name out there: undrafted 19-year-old winger Hayden Verbeek. He's a tenacious undersized forward in the general mold of Montreal Canadiens' forward Brendan Gallagher. I don't know if "Beeker" will ever make it to the NHL -- the Gallagher comparison is stylistic not one of talent -- but I wouldn't be surprised if Verbeek ends up having a decent AHL career as a role player.
Among all of these promising players on a team that went 48-16-4 in the regular season, the best pure talent in my opinion is Frost. My friend Grant McCagg, who formerly scouted for the Montreal Canadiens, had Frost going 25th (to the Habs) in his Mock Draft for Recrutes and 21st in his BPA rankings.
That seems about right to me for Frost in this year's class. I've seen many other rankings (The Hockey News projects Frost in the mid-second round range, Bob McKenzie and Craig Button both have Frost beyond the first round and Jeff Marek had Frost at No. 50 for Sportsnet, five spots behind Soo teammate Timmins) that I think are considerably too low. Frost is absolutely a first-round caliber talent. In fact, I'd be comfortable seeing him selected at any point in the latter half of the first round.
Time and patience with be necessary with the player. He is very slightly built at present and is listed at 5-foot-11 but looks to be just a shade over the height of longtime Flyer Danny Briere -- a player with some similarities. Frost is extremely fast when he gets his feet moving (you don't win Fastest Skater at Top Prospects by being slow) but will have adapt to the pro pace. There's a very scarce number of NHL players who can make plays at a deliberate glide or especially at a standstill. Frost can do these things for the Soo but doing it in the NHL is a whole different thing. I'd love to see him use his pure speed as his Option A, but he is quite adept at surveying his options, making a play or stickhandling to find a better play.
Some NHL coaches... OK, many NHL coaches... may not love all the dangling and saucer passes and passes through skates that Frost did more and more of as last season progressed (I thought he was pretty conservative in early games but, as the points started to pile up, there was more and more daring to his game). Off-the-puck, he has a lot of developmental room but he seems to have the instincts to go to the right spots. There's strong hockey sense. When he gets rolling, he gets a slew of puck touches and is good at beating defenders one-on-one. Once he adds muscular strength, which is presently sorely needed, I think he'll be a regular point producer.
I am not one to make future NHL point predictions for a player but I do predict roles, and I see Frost as a future NHL top six forward who produces regular offense and eventually evolves into a reliable all-around player due to his innate cleverness. To me, that's a first-round caliber prospect in any year. The 2017 Draft is a decent one -- not an all-timer by any means but also not exceptionally week -- but I don't think there are 31 better prospects out there to push Frost beyond the first round.
In fact, and I may biased simply because the Greyhounds became my team of choice to watch when possible, I would argue there may not be 15 better Draft-eligible prospects at this stage of their development.
For one, I'd take Frost over Sioux City Musketeers (USHL) forward Eeli Tolvanen, who has gotten more hype from pundits than Frost and had gaudier scoring numbers in his league this past season. Apples to apples, I'd pick Frost over the Finn. Maybe that'll look ridiculously foolish a few years from now, but Draft prognostication is all about the eye of the beholder. I'm not knocking Tolvanen. I just Frost has the "it" factor to his game especially for someone who was shy of his 18th birthday until the latter part of the spring. To be, there's a lot of skill and a lot of potential here to peg where most of the public predictions have him pegged.
4) At the NHL Draft Combine, teams commonly interview not only players who are likely to be selected in the vicinity of each club's current spot in the Draft order but also ones who could come into play in the future (such as if there is a trade made to move up or back in the selection order or possibly even be in position to acquire the prospect in a deal down the line. One such example is Swedish forward Lias Anderrson, who interviewed with 30 of the 31 organizations at the Combine. The only organization he did not speak to was the LA Kings, but that is because the youngster's father, former NHL forward Niklas Andersson, is a scout for the team. His uncle, Mikael Andersson, was a 1st-round pick of the Buffalo Sabres in 1984 and later played for the Flyers in the late 1990s.
5) With the Flyers not having a clear-cut third defenseman (after Shayne Gostisbehere and Radko Gudas) to protect in the NHL Expansion Draft, they could have an opportunity to pre-emptively make a trade with NHL organizations who have deep bluelines and otherwise could end up losing a quality (and fairly young) player for nothing. Teams such as the Anaheim Ducks or Minnesota Wild could be among those in such a position. At present, the Flyers' third protected slot on the blueline will default to either Andrew MacDonald or Brandon Manning. While the organization hopes to see a couple of their homegrown prospects grab an NHL job next season, that does not mean they should (or would) be closed off to the idea of adding a young vet if it would upgrade the current group.
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CHARITY CLASSIC
Bernie Parent will be co-captaining his own team at the upcoming Flyers Charity Classic, and he has invited the public to sign up for it. Co-captained in conjunction with wife Gini, Bernie's team will be called the Italian-French Connection. More information will be forthcoming next week. Brad Marsh is also captaining a publicly available team, called
the Ides of Marsh, while club president Paul Holmgren heads Holmgren's Heroes.
Philadelphia Flyers Blogger •NHL.com • 
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