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The 2016-17 season was not kind to Cory Schneider.
The 31-year-old netminder posted a .909 save percentage, by far his worst since joining the NHL and well below his career total (.922SV%), and won just 20 times in 59 starts.
As such, he was the subject of a lot of criticism throughout the year and some have suggested trading him while his value is still relatively high.
On the surface, I can see where some are coming from -- big dips in overall production are generally worrisome for players in their 30s -- but I wouldn't trade Schneider and am very confident he'll bounce back.
Despite a down year, especially by his standards, Schneider still fared very well in one of the most telling statistics when it comes to evaluating goaltenders: high-danger save percentage.
Schneider stopped 86% of the high-danger looks (shots from the slot/home-plate area) he faced at 5v5, which was good for 3rd in the NHL among 35 goaltenders who appeared in at least 40 games.
The two goaltenders to finish ahead of Schneider in high-danger save percentage: Sergei Bobrovsky (87.4%) and Carey Price (87.1%).
Schneider's high-danger save percentage at 5v5 from this past season was not only in line with what he posted in his first two years as the Devils' undisputed starter, it was actually better.
If Schneider's high-danger save percentage was so good, why did his overall numbers suck? Great question, I'm glad you asked.
There are a few contributing factors but two of the most important, in my opinion, are as follows:
1) The Devils' penalty kill was not good. They allowed more shots, scoring chances and goals per 60 minutes in 2016-17 than they did in 2015-16. That'll dent the numbers.
2) Schneider's save percentage at 5v5 was among the worst in non-high-danger shots. Remember all the goals Schneider allowed, especially in the first half of the season, where there were several players -- in many cases teammates -- standing directly in his sightlines? Many of those shots came from a distance so they are not considered high-danger looks, even though Schneider was often in a difficult position to try and make the save.
Personally speaking, I'd rather have a goaltender post stellar numbers in the high-danger category as opposed to shots of low-danger. I think the latter can fluctuate more due to luck, screens, etc. and it's easier for lesser goaltenders to post good numbers.
High-danger saves, on the other hand, are more skill driven. Stopping NHL shooters is very hard. Stopping NHL shooters when they're 8 feet in front of you and have space to work with is even harder.
I don't think you can really fluke your way into stopping high-danger shots on a consistent basis, as Schneider has done throughout his career. You're either skilled enough to make tough saves, or you're not. Schneider has proven he is.
Until that changes, I wouldn't worry about him. He'll bounce back.
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