There is a unique opportunity ahead for the Pittsburgh Penguins. They have the potential to be the first three-peat champions in the NHL since the early 1980’s New York Islanders. The odds are stacked against them due to the nature of the sport: bounces, injuries, etc… However, there are some things that are entirely in their control the biggest one is roster construction. Jim Rutherford has a lot to do this summer and over the course of the next few weeks I am going to highlight some of the key areas in which the Penguins can improve. And make no doubt about it the Penguins have to improve because every other team gunning for them is going to try and do the same.
One of Pittsburgh’s areas they will need to address is third line center. Nick Bonino is an unrestricted free agent and Jim Rutherford has told all of his UFA’s to test the market. Nick Bonino was traded in the summer of 2015 in a transaction that saw the underwhelming Brandon Sutter leave the team. In 2015-16 Bonino put up incredible offensive numbers. The HBK line was a huge reason the Penguins won it all that season. In 2016-17 regression hit hard. Here were his 5v5 points per 60 for each season in Pittsburgh
2015-16: 2.07
2016-17: 1.43
One hypothesis for the decrease in offense could be that he was focusing more on the defensive side of the puck. His shot attempt numbers would dispel that hypothesis. Here are his 5v5 shot attempts against per 60 numbers the past two years.
2015-16: 53.37
2016-17: 59.57
Nick Bonino is currently 29 years old and is coming off a contract that paid him 1.8 million annually. He is coming off back-to-back Stanley Cup Championships. He is a UFA. For the Pittsburgh Penguins to keep this machine running smoothly they need to hit on these kinds of mid-tier contracts. I do not foresee a situation where the value of Bonino’s next contract makes sense for the Penguins moving forward. Bonino can and should be looking to maximize his earning potential. Pittsburgh can and should be looking for his replacement.
So if the team is supposed to move on from Nick Bonino who should be their third line center?
I think the Penguins should target Joe Thornton.
It’s not as crazy as it might sound on the surface. Thornton is a UFA and would not take assets to acquire. Joe Thornton remains without a Stanley Cup. If he were to leave the Sharks I would imagine acquiring that missing trophy would be at the top of his to do list. Pittsburgh has the cap space available without Marc-Andre Fleury’s contract on the books anymore. The benefit of not spending a premium at the goaltender position is that you can make splashes elsewhere in the lineup. Pittsburgh also has the forward depth to accommodate three “number one centers”.
I don’t think I’ll have to work too hard on selling Joe Thornton’s ability as a hockey player, but I’ll provide some evidence of it anyways. To start with I’ll use Domenic Galamini’s newest version of his HERO charts. Here is an explanation of his assessment tool
Here’s how Thornton holds up against a first line center standard
He’s still amazing.
Here is how he compares to the guy he would theoretically be replacing
It’s no contest obviously and that isn’t a slight to Bonino. I do however want to draw attention to blue line on the bottom graph. Joe Thornton’s offensive production at 5v5 in 2016-17 took a huge hit when compared to his 2015-16 season. Here is how Thornton’s career has looked on that front.
Last year was Thornton’s first subpar at generating even-strength offense. He will be 38 years old entering the 2017-18 season. Why should anybody expect a player of that age to bounce back? It’s simple. In Pittsburgh, he would no longer need to carry the burden of being the #1 center. He would still receive a favorable quality of teammate while slicing away at the quality of his competition. He was still a monster on the possession front. The San Jose Sharks were a top five possession team last year and he led the Sharks with a relative CF% of 6.7%. He was the best among players that were really good at it.
My thought process would place Phil Kessel alongside Joe Thornton once again creating a deadly three line scoring attack. Thornton’s possession and passing ability would be a great fit with Phil’s speed and deadly shot. In theory, this would improve Kessel’s possession numbers and in turn Kessel could prop Thornton’s 5v5 points per 60 again.
OK, so what do you do about the power play? Too many cooks in the kitchen? Nah. It works for Canada it can work for Pittsburgh, too. Joe Thornton would take the half wall and would have Sidney Crosby flanking him low with Evgeni Malkin flanking him on the right point. Kris Letang would be on the left point with Phil Kessel remaining in the same slot he has inhabited the past two years. That lineup would be nightmare fuel for any penalty killing unit.
So while Joe Thornton may want to chase a Stanley Cup he shouldn’t have to do so while making peanuts. He would be after all be one of the most talented free agents out there. Pittsburgh can accommodate him monetarily. They could comfortably offer him a one-year deal in the range of 5-5.5M. Matt Cane of Puck++ does a wonderful job with contract projections and here is his list for the summer, including Thornton
So, Thornton gets to play on an amazing team. He gets a nice paycheck. Both team and player have options at the end of the season. If Thornton decides to test the market, I cannot see a better situation that will give him a chance to win while still giving him a nice paycheck.
This all seems like a pipe dream, but is it? I certainly don’t think so. Sidney Crosby has won Gold Medals with Joe Thornton. Why not a Stanley Cup?
We already know that Joe looks good in the black and gold.
Pittsburgh could make one of the biggest splashes of the offseason, jumbo even.
Thanks for reading!
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