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If speed kills, Bowman wins |
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If I see one more "analysis" of Friday's trades with Arizona and Columbus—based on players' possession numbers with their respective former teams, or worse still, the ubiquitous "Saad=Panarin . . . Hjalmarsson>Murphy . . . " calculations, my head is going to explode.
I've been pretty strongly hinting—and now I'm just going to say it—you can't judge these trades on the "easy" metrics pulled off the scads of websites that publish possession data. Or a simple addition/subtraction model.
You can begin to judge them by examining the context of each team, their playing styles, what they were missing, and what they were trying to accomplish.
When you do that, these look more and more like value-for-value deals that may benefit all the teams involved. Including, specifically, the Chicago Blackhawks.
Even on my own message board, typically perceptive posters seem to be viewing these deals to a degree with blinders on.
And to them, to everyone else, I say the following;
CHEAPER
You're right in that the short-term cap savings (for 2017-18) are minimal. It appears the real cap benefit comes two years from now.
YOUNGER
You're right—although it appears the Hawks added a legitimate lower line center (Laurent Dauphin) and a backup goalie (Anton Forsberg), in addition to backfilling the losses of Artemi Panarin (Brandon Saad) and Niklas Hjalmarsson (Connor Murphy)—the Hawks still have some roster imbalance and ideally more work to do this offseason.
But you're missing the big benefit:
FASTER
The Hawks got a lot faster Friday—on both an individual basis but also very likely in how they play as a team. Individually, Saad and Murphy provide slight speed upgrades over the players they essentially replace.
But maybe more importantly, both can move the puck up the ice very quickly—and dangerously—on opposing defenses. Murphy is not going to make end-to-end rushes a la Nick Leddy, but he will make a quick first pass. And Hawk fans, at least, remember how lethal the Hawks' stretch pass game was when Saad was on their left flank from 2012 to 2015.
if you've played hockey, you know the effect that speed—especially speed with he ability to finish—has on an opposing defense. Suddenly the ice is wide open and the other team is back on its heels. Instead of the other way around.
It's not like the Hawks were the slowest team in the league before Friday, but it did appear that sometime in the last couple of years, the Hawks went from being the team that drove the tempo and could skate with anyone—as they were in a lightning-paced Stanley Cup Final versus Tampa Bay—to a timid, backed off victim of a first round sweep against the Predators.
The rules (and officiating) of today's NHL favor speed. And hockey has always favored it. The Hawks have added a lot of it back, up and down the ice.
Even Dauphin, who a lot of Hawk fans are mysteriously leaving out of their 2017-18 lineup projections, adds elite speed (and some NHL experience) to the bottom six.
Let me put it this way: everyone loved the disruption that Vince Hinostroza provided at times last year with his speed. Dauphin can do that, too.
Not to mention, at this time a year ago, everyone was putting Hinostroza (without any NHL experience) in their Hawk lineup, some as a first line right wing. Ummm . . .
Setting that aside, Dauphin is a guy who goes to war every shift, his feet are always moving, he comes out of scrums with pucks, and he's a legitimate center who can help kill penalties—something that may end up being the "backfill" if/when Marcus Kruger is finally a Vegas Golden Knight.
Taken in totality, there's a clear pattern and plan behind these two trades: get younger, cheaper, and especially, faster.
So if you're looking for a clue as to what's next in this crazy summer of 2017, look for a slower player (Artem Anisimov anyone) to get moved out, and replaced by even more speed.
That's all I have this morning. But I'll be back, of course, if anything else unfolds today.
JJ
Chicago Blackhawks Blogger • 
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