Of all the picks made by the Blue Jackets, this one raises the most eyebrows. All the Jackets picks have question marks, but as we’ve seen in the first three parts of the series, these players have upside and you can see the rational for their selections. With Kale Howarth it’s harder to see that upside and potential.
Howarth is a 20 year old centre who spent the past season playing for the Trail Smoke Eaters in the BCHL. There is nothing wrong with picking older players, both Davidsson and Meyer were passed over in prior drafts, and there is nothing wrong with taking a player from the BCHL, they had three players selected in the first round in 2016, the concern arises when you combine the two.
The BCHL is a tier II junior league, one step below the CHL. It’s widely considered the best of the tier II leagues, as its produced notable NHL players like Kyle Turris, Beau Bennett and Justin Schultz. For the most part the talent that comes out of this league is found in the first couple rounds of the draft, with one notable exception. In 2007 the Dallas Stars picked a big forward in the fifth round out of the BCHL, and it’s safe to say Jamie Benn turned out ok.
Howarth, standing 6’5 is a big bodied forward like Benn, but that is where the comparisons stop. Howarth had a nice season scoring 30 goals and 58 points in 51 games, but that is simply not good enough for an NHL prospect. NHL prospects should be head and shoulders above everyone else in a league like this and Howarth simply wasn’t. Since 2005 there have been 28 forwards selected out of the BCHL according to Hockey-Reference. Of those 28, 11 went on to play at least one game in the NHL. Those 11 players averaged 36.73 goals, 45 assists, 81.73 points and 53.82 games, for a point per game rate of 1.52. That was the average. You have players like Turris, Bennett and Tyson Jost averaging over two points per game their draft years.
Howarth is below average already and that’s not even considering the fact that he is older than every player in the sample. For 10 of the 11 players those stats were from their 18 year old season and the other was from his 19 year old season. By 20 years old these players were long past the BCHL on to new challenges and higher levels on competition.
The other concerning part to this is that Howarth has never been an offensive player at any stage in his hockey career. His Elite Prospects page goes back to 2010-11 when Howarth was playing AA hockey, and this past season was the first time he has ever been a point per game player. This goes back to the point from above, NHL prospects dominate when they are in lower levels and Howarth has not done that at any stage in his career.
Looking at Howarth from a more traditional scouting point of view, it looks as if scouting services and the Jackets got intoxicated by his size. I have not seen him play but a quick look at his highlight pack raises some red flags.
Right away you can see the size Howarth possess. He towers over everybody. For someone that big, he moves well but overall his skating is not a strength. The Hockey Prospect Blackbook describes him as having “good acceleration… and decently quick feet for his size.” They also mentioned that his stops and starts as well as his lateral movement are average. Howarth shows some good vision in that video, picking up a couple assists on strong passing plays. The concern however is with the goal scoring. Most of his goals seemed to either come on the power play or by being bigger than everyone else. 14 of his 30 goals came with the man advantage.
He didn’t show much offensive skill or creativity with the puck. He was able to bulldoze the puck to the net and scored some goals off of bad angle shots. Those bad angle shots are not going to go in on better more experienced goalies. He also scored a lot of goals on rebounds as he was able to park himself in front of the net and no one could move him. As he moves up in hockey he is going to face defencemen who are equally as big and strong as he is and he won’t have those same opportunities right in front of the net. The Blackbook says he is at his best when he has space and when under pressure “his decision making is inconsistent.” That is something that will also be a problem as he progresses.
Kale Howarth is by far the most curious pick made by the Blue Jackets. His numbers aren’t very good and he’s an older player playing in a tier II league. He’s big but doesn’t look to have much more past that to make him a successful player at the next level. There’s a reason he wasn’t drafted into the WHL and why he has yet to move on to the NCAA. He will start next season back with the Smoke Eaters before making the jump to the University of Connecticut.
Columbus Blue Jackets Blogger • 
Join the Discussion:
»