It’s hard to believe it’s that time already, but season previews for the NHL’s 2017-18 campaign are beginning to appear. Some teams still have moves to make – either to deal with salary cap or internal budget issues – but for the most part, rosters have been constructed for the year and expectations are settling in.
As always, the analysis that follows isn’t a guarantee of the way the season will unfold; franchises overachieve and underachieve every year, injuries waylay the meticulously mapped-out plans of GMs and coaches, and unforeseeable on-and-off-ice events can derail championship aspirations or propel clubs to heights even their most fervent fans could’ve hoped for.
But when analysts publish our projections for the season to come, we’re really just underscoring what people around the league believe each team is (a) capable of; and (b) likely to do. If you take offense, odds are you’re just being a good fan and envisioning the best-case scenario for your favourite group of players. That’s how it should be. But when you don’t have any inherent rooting interest, your task is simple: evaluate changes that were made and the state of lineups as they currently stand, and based upon those factors, put together a guesstimated order of finish.
And so, for the next four weeks, that’s what we’re doing. One division each week, starting with what is now the NHL’s smallest – and arguably, toughest – division, the Central. Here’s how this writer sees it:
1. Nashville Predators
Additions: Nick Bonino, C; Scott Hartnell, LW; Alexei Emelin, D; Anders Lindback, G
Deletions: Colin Wilson, LW; Mike Fisher, C; James Neal, LW; P.A. Parenteau, LW; Vernon Fiddler, C
Why I picked them where I picked them: The Preds finished the regular season with the worst road record (17-20-4) of any team that qualified for a playoff spot, and even a couple more wins away from home will push them up the Central ranks. Losing the production of Neal, Wilson and Fisher takes 53 goals out of their offense, but the acquisitions of Bonino (who had 18 goals for the Pens in 2016-17) and Hartnell (13) takes away some of the sting, and youngsters Viktor Arvidsson and Pontus Aberg have the ability to raise their games and increase their contributions. A full season from P.K. Subban (who missed 16 games last year) won’t hurt, either.
Nashville’s defense needs to tighten up a bit, as they allowed more goals (224) than any other Western Conference squad. But GM David Poile addressed that concern, bringing in former Canadiens brute Alexei Emelin to add more depth to what many believe is the league’s best defense corps. All in all, this team is a terrific mixture of dynamic youth (including Filip Forsberg, Ryan Johansen and Ryan Ellis) and veteran knowhow, and given that their division rivals in Chicago, Minnesota and St. Louis have taken some hits of late in their roster quality, the Preds are in a very good position to follow up their first Stanley Cup Final appearance with their first division title.
2. Dallas Stars
Additions: Martin Hanzal, C; Alexander Radulov, RW; Marc Methot, D; Ben Bishop, G; Ken Hitchcock, head coach
Deletions: Patrick Sharp, LW; Antti Niemi, G; Jiri Hudler, RW; Lindy Ruff, head coach
Why I picked them where I picked them: Dallas was the West’s best team in 2015-16, but a slew of injuries, sub-par goaltending and erratic play in their own zone, and a drop in goals-for resulted in the Stars finishing 15 points out of a post-season berth and posting the fourth-worst record in the conference. So GM Jim Nill had little option other than making big moves, and he struck down upon the organization with great vengeance and furious anger, dismissing head coach Lindy Ruff – and replacing him with the familiar face of Ken Hitchcock – and working the trade and free agent markets to bring in a quartet of experienced hands to bolster the ranks at all four positions.
Nill began his roster work by breaking up the netminding platoon of Antti Niemi (bought out of the final season of his contract) and Kari Lehtonen (who’ll stick around for one more year at a pricey $5.9 million cap hit) and making former Lightning cornerstone Ben Bishop his new No. 1 goalie. Nill then added two veteran forwards – center Martin Hanzal and winger Alexander Radulov, who combined to register 38 goals last year – via free agency, and completed his notable transactions by making a deal with the expansion Las Vegas Golden Knights for blueliner Marc Methot.
All four new Stars players are between ages 30-32, an indication Nill believes his franchise’s competitive cycle hardly is in its infancy – indeed, although Tyler Seguin is 25 and John Klingberg is 24, Jason Spezza and Dan Hamhuis are 34 and Jamie Benn is 28 – and if they can stay healthy, a rebound back to prominence is perfectly reasonable. We agree. Dallas still has depth concerns, but Hitchcock will instil structure and a sense of urgency, and they’ve got more than enough top-end talent to score their way back into the post-season and hope Bishop’s confidence is peaking once they get there.
3. St. Louis Blues
Additions: Brayden Schenn, C; Chris Thorburn, RW; Oskar Sundqvist, C; Beau Bennett, RW; Nate Prosser, D
Deletions: David Perron, LW; Jori Lehtera, C; Scottie Upshall, RW; Ryan Reaves, RW; Nail Yakupov, RW
Why I picked them where I picked them: The Blues more or less stood pat with the team that finished third in the Central last season, and seven points behind Minnesota for second in the division. However, there was one notable exception: the trade that sent center Jori Lehtera, a first-round draft pick in the 2017 draft and a conditional first-rounder in the 2018 draft to Philadelphia for center Brayden Schenn. At first glance, it seemed like a steal for St. Louis, who was getting a 25-year-old pivot who nearly matched career bests in goals and points last season and who’s under contract for three years.
At second, third, fourth and fifth-through-every-other-glance, it seems like even more of a steal for the Blues. First-round picks are valuable, but Schenn gives St. Louis much more skill than Lehtera could, and his cap hit of $5.125 million is a nice insurance policy when veteran center Paul Stastny’s contract expires at the end of this season. Stastny’s contributions have never been commensurate with his $7-million cap hit, but for this year, at least, the Blues have them both and their depth up front is impressive.
Despite the departure of Kevin Shattenkirk midway through last year, St. Louis also has two of the league’s better younger blueliners in captain Alex Pietrangelo and Colton Parayko, and the steady Jay Bouwmeester can still play well over 20 minutes a night without making any errors. There’s still a lot to like about the Blues, and it’ll be intriguing to see how Schenn changes the chemistry of the group, particularly come playoff time. But there’s no reason why they can’t be at least as effective as they were in the most recent regular season.
4. Chicago Blackhawks
Additions: Brandon Saad, LW; Patrick Sharp, LW; Lance Bouma, LW; Tommy Wingels, RW; Connor Murphy, D; Anton Forsberg, G; J-F Berube, G
Deletions: Artemi Panarin, LW; Marian Hossa, RW*; Niklas Hjalmarsson, D; Marcus Kruger, C; Brian Campbell, D; Trevor van Riemsdyk, D; Dennis Rasmussen, C; Johnny Oduya, D; Scott Darling, G
* – will not play this season due to skin condition
Why I picked them where I picked them: Only the Washington Capitals finished with more wins (55) than the Hawks’ Central-best 50 victories last year, and only the Caps and Penguins had more standings points (118 and 111 respectively) than Chicago’s 109. Unfortunately for Blackhawks fans who’ve grown accustomed to consistently outstanding play, a post-season, first-round sweep at the hands of Nashville exposed the Hawks’ weaknesses, and GM Stan Bowman wasted no time in shaking his franchise up in a jaw-dropping manner.
Out the door went 25-year-old winger (and two-time 30-goal-scorer) Artemi Panarin, who was shipped to Columbus in return for former-and-now-second-time Hawk winger Brandon Saad. The 24-year-old Saad has been about as consistent as a player of his calibre can be, registering 53 points in both of his two seasons with the Blue Jackets after Chicago dealt his negotiating rights in June of 2015. But Bowman is banking on his chemistry with the Hawks’ key players this time around, and has him under contract for four seasons at a $6 million cap hit – the same hit Panarin had, only for two additional seasons.
Money and term always matters in Chicago, and the Hawks have been arguably the best team in the cap era when it comes to producing young players to take the spot of talented veterans forced to move along by the constraints of the cap ceiling. But this summer’s cap challenges have had an especially brutal impact, and the consequences were such that eight regulars – including key blueliner Niklas Hjalmarsson and backup goalie Scott Darling – either changed teams or moved into retirement. But the biggest whammy came when star winger Marian Hossa announced he would not play this year because of a severe skin disorder. The 38-year-old no longer is in his prime, but he’s still a sublime competitor whose absence will be agonizing.
Bowman was able to mitigate some of the damage done by landing solid workers such as winger Tommy Wingels, D-man Connor Murphy and another returning Hawk in 35-year-old winger Patrick Sharp. And make no mistake, a lot of NHL GMs would love to have this team as-is and challenge for a Stanley Cup. But Chicago’s core of stars is going to have to do much more of the heavy lifting this season if the Blackhawks are going to keep pace in the Central. They no longer have an embarrassment of riches on the depth front, and an injury or two to the wrong player could mean they’re fighting for their playoff lives come March and April.
5. Minnesota Wild
Additions: Tyler Ennis, LW; Marcus Foligno, RW
Deletions: Jason Pominville, RW; Antti Niemi, G; Jiri Hudler, RW; Lindy Ruff, head coach
Why I picked them where I picked them: Yes, Minnesota won more games (49) last year than at any point in franchise history. Yes, their goals-for/against differential of plus-58 was second only to Washington (plus-81) in 2016-17. Yes, only Pittsburgh had more goals-for (282) than the Wild (266). Picking this team as the one that might miss the post-season is, to a degree, going out on a limb.
That said, here’s some facts to consider: Minnesota was one of the healthiest teams in the league last season. Sure, Zach Parise and Jonas Brodin missed 13 and 14 games respectively, but otherwise, they were very fortunate – and I don’t know they could put up nearly as many victories if two or three of their more important players went down for any long period of time. And also, look at the way the Wild played down the stretch last year. At the end of February, they were 41-14-6, and from the start of March through the first day of April, they went 4-11-2. (Wild fans might point out they finished the regular season schedule with four straight wins – to which, I’d reply, “Yeah, and two of those wins came over Colorado, one came over Carolina, and the final one came against Arizona”.)
In other words, the Wild essentially stumbled into the playoffs, and once they were there, they were defeated in five games by the Blues. One season earlier, Minnesota went out relatively easily in the first round, falling to Dallas in six games. So, before we keep pointing to this franchise’s regular-season successes in the past four seasons, we need to acknowledge the reality: thus far, their core has shown no indication they’re built to win a Cup.
And with that in mind, let’s look at what GM Chuck Fletcher did this summer: he brought in forwards Tyler Ennis and Marcus Foligno from Buffalo in exchange for winger Jason Pominville and blueliner Marco Scandella; he signed free agent defensemen Kyle Quincey and Ryan Murphy; and, um, that’s it. More or less the status quo, and in this division, I don’t think that’s good enough.
Any team that has the services of a blueliner such as Ryan Suter and a goalie like Devan Dubnyk is likely to be in the playoff hunt, but I can see the Wild battling the Blackhawks, or a team in the Pacific Division, for one of the final wild card playoff berths far more easily than I can see them sitting atop the Central this year.
6. Winnipeg Jets
Additions: Dmitry Kulikov, D; Steve Mason, G
Deletions: Paul Postma, D; Drew Stafford, LW; Chris Thorburn, RW; Mark Stuart, D
Why I picked them where I picked them: I wrote extensively about the Jets last week, but when you look at how few alterations GM Kevin Cheveldayoff has made to the group that finished fifth in the Central last year, you realize how truly dependent Winnipeg is on internal improvement this season. No team’s off-season acquisitions should be the sole basis for where you slot them in for predictions, but the nagging questions remain with this franchise: after the way the summer has shaken out, which of Winnipeg’s fellow divisional rivals would you place money – serious money – on them finishing ahead of in the standings this season? Colorado, sure, but that’s more a comment on the mess in Denver than it is a positive remark on where the Jets are at right now. And that's pretty much it. I'm open to the possibility the Jets will excel, but this is a prove-it-first scenario.
Is it possible Paul Maurice and patience pay off and the Jets’ core of youngsters leads the organization to a standings surge and surprise many an NHL observer? Of course. But the point is, as it stands now, it would be a surprise. The expectations for this franchise are still modest, and Winnipeg supporters are rightfully itching to put the excuses aside sooner than later and raise those expectations exponentially.
7. Colorado Avalanche
Additions: Colin Wilson, LW; Nail Yakupov, RW; Jonathan Bernier, G
Deletions: Mikhail Grigorienko, C; John Mitchell, C; Blake Comeau, LW; Francois Beauchemin, D; Fedor Tyutin, D; Patrick Wiercioch, D
Why I picked them where I picked them: The Avalanche won 22 games last season – just six more than the lowest total in franchise history. And if you think that’s awful, consider that 16-win season came in 2012-13 – the lockout season when there were only 48 regular-season games-played. That’s how bad the Avs were last year. Like,
Xanadu bad.
And yet here we are in mid-August, and Colorado has done next to nothing to alter the core of a team that desperately requires altering. GM Joe Sakic has listened to offers for first-rate talents including Matt Duchene, but his reticence to consummate any deal is troubling in the extreme. Either Sakic’s asking price is outlandishly high, or he honestly believes the team that had a minus-112 goals-for/against differential – nearly double the total of the next-worst team (Arizona, at minus-63) is going to enjoy a miraculous turnaround this season.
Avs fans should be irate at the inertia that’s enveloped the franchise, and unless something drastic takes place prior to the start of training camp, it could get even worse in Denver this year.
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