The dust is finally settling in the desert.
After a cloud-kicking array of post-expansion draft moves, the Vegas Golden Knights are close to resembling a regular NHL roster. And they're not done yet with their reconstruction -- Vegas is currently carrying 10 NHL-caliber defensemen.
But with training camp just weeks away, it seems like a decent time to evaluate George McPhee's sometimes-criticized expansion efforts.
How to evaluate? I will weigh two possibilities for each team that the Golden Knights chose from: Who was each unprotected list's best non-UFA "win now" pick? And who was the best "build for the future" selection? Then, I'll pass judgment on McPhee's actual course of action.
Of course, putting together a team isn't as black or white as "win now" or "build for the future." Vegas clearly tried a mixed approach. But examining McPhee's machinations against this dichotomy should illuminate his work -- for better and for worse.
This will be a four-part series: Part One will review McPhee's selections
from Anaheim to Dallas, Part Two
Detroit to New York, Part Three
Ottawa to Winnipeg, and Part Four will summarize our findings.
So now, we're at Part Four.
As I was releasing this series, I was asked to explain my grading scale. Here's a loose guide:
A: Brilliant move
B: Plus transaction, for the solid but predictable expansion picks + promising deals which have a catch
C: Ho-hum pick and/or questionable asset management
D: Poor
F: I really, really don't get it
Considering Vegas's expansion status, I was more inclined to reward higher-ceiling maneuvers which looked to the future. Also, I had no problem with taking on bad contracts.
Remember that these grades don't reflect the quality of the asset(s). For example, Griffin Reinhart isn't necessarily a "B" player yet, but compared to what the Edmonton Oilers were offering, he's a sound-enough selection. So that was a "B" move.
Here's a recap of my individual grades. I elaborated on each grade in the previous parts of this series.
A
• Columbus (hypothetically, William Karlsson, a 2017 first-rounder, a 2019 second-rounder, and David Clarkson for Josh Anderson)
• New York Islanders (hypothetically, a 2017 first-round pick, a 2019 second-round pick, Jake Bischoff, J.F. Berube, and Mikhail Grabovski for Calvin De Haan)
• Pittsburgh (essentially, Marc-Andre Fleury and a 2020 second-round pick for nothing)
• Tampa Bay (hypothetically, Jason Garrison, a 2017 second-round pick, a 2018 fourth-round pick, and Nikita Gusev for Slater Koekkoek)
Obviously, McPhee took advantage of his clean slate by absorbing some bad contracts. There's been some thought that the Golden Knights should have extracted even more from the teams which were desperate for cap space.
I'm giving GMGM the benefit of the doubt here, as I wasn't in the war room. After all, as much as say Jarmo Kekäläinen wants to dump Clarkson's cap hit, there's a point when he's going to walk away from the table too.
B
• Anaheim (hypothetically, Shea Theodore and Clayton Stoner for Sami Vatanen)
• Boston (Colin Miller)
• Chicago (essentially, a 2017 second-rounder and a 2018 fifth-round pick for Trevor van Riemsdyk, Marcus Kruger, and a a 2018 seventh-round pick)
• Colorado (Calvin Pickard)
• Edmonton (Griffin Reinhart)
• Florida (Jonathan Marchessault and Reilly Smith for a 2018 fourth-round pick)
• Montreal (Alexei Emelin, who was flipped for a 2018 third-round pick)
• Nashville (James Neal)
• New York Rangers (Oscar Lindberg)
• Ottawa (Marc Methot, who was flipped for a 2020 second-round pick and Dylan Ferguson)
• St. Louis (David Perron)
• Toronto (Brendan Leipsic)
• Washington (Nate Schmidt)
• Winnipeg (hypothetically, Chris Thorburn, Winnipeg's 2017 first-round pick, and a 2019 third-round pick for Columbus's 2017 first-round pick and Marko Dano)
C
• Arizona (Teemu Pulkkinen)
• Carolina (hypothetically, Connor Brickley and a 2017 fifth-round pick for Lee Stempniak)
• Dallas (Cody Eakin)
• Los Angeles (Brayden McNabb)
• Minnesota (hypothetically, Erik Haula and Alex Tuch for Matt Dumba)
• New Jersey (Jon Merrill)
• Vancouver (Luca Sbisa)
D
• Buffalo (hypothetically, William Carrier and a 2017 sixth-round pick for Linus Ullmark)
• Detroit (Tomas Nosek)
• Philadelphia (Pierre-Edouard Bellemare)
• San Jose (David Schlemko, who was flipped for a 2019 fifth-round pick)
F
• Calgary (Deryk Engelland)
For the most part, I liked McPhee's expansion draft, insofar as he was clearly concentrating on the long-term health of his franchise. I think the value received was good.
Including the 2017 NHL Draft, this summer, Vegas acquired a net total of 11 draft picks to be used over the next few seasons, highlighted by two extra first-rounders and five second-rounders. They also added top prospects Shea Theodore and Alex Tuch.
Prospect rankings have to be taken with a grain of salt, but there's a reason why prospects guru Corey Pronman
tabbed the Golden Knights farm system as the league's 14th-best. This is impressive, considering that Vegas has pretty much been in business for just a couple months.
Of course, it's up to McPhee to make something of this surplus. That can certainly go either way. But once again, I like the value received.
But could McPhee have built a more competitive team right now without losing this focus on the future?That's been a common argument, but it's hard to rebut or defend without knowing everything which was on the table for him.
What most agree on is that the expansion Golden Knights, as currently constituted, are a playoff longshot. The forwards and goaltending look competitive enough, but even with at least 10 NHL-caliber defensemen to choose from right now, the blueline lacks polished, high-end talent.
Here, McPhee may have miscalculated by taking so many defenders: He came away with 13 after the Expansion Draft.
However, having to make 30 selections, there was bound to be some positional excess somewhere. Usually, the market for defense is more stable than goaltending and more valuable than forwards.
I think that McPhee counted on a brisker market for his blueliners.
In all, I give McPhee a B- for his work up to this point. The Golden Knights are probably not going to be very good this season -- and maybe they should be better, especially on the blueline -- but they're set up well for the long run. Of course, missing the playoffs early and often will mean more lottery picks down the line.
If McPhee was considering that, trying to put together a "competitive" bad team for better draft position, good for him. That's what he appears to have on his hands.
I use the word "competitive" because McPhee, even thinking ahead, probably didn't want to replicate, for example, the putridness of the expansion Ottawa Senators. The 1992-93 Sens set an NHL record with 39 consecutive road losses in their first season. For a market that's new to hockey like Las Vegas, totally tanking your first half-decade is a dangerous approach.
So this middle road, which leans more toward looking ahead, is probably the right philosophy.
However, owner Bill Foley's well-publicized goal of making the postseason in three years looks like a stretch at the moment, as McPhee didn't appear to use the Expansion Draft as a springboard for short-term contention.
Down the road, will this cause a rift between Foley and McPhee? The pair have been lockstep this summer, but what happens if the losing goes on...and on?
***
Here's a potential Golden Knights roster made up of purely "Win Now" picks:
View post on imgur.com
You can reference my "Win Now" picks in the previous parts of this series. Just for example though, I picked Eric Staal ahead of Matt Dumba for immediate contention:
View post on imgur.com
In theory, Eric Staal and Vadim Shipachyov look like a credible one-two punch up the middle, you can roll four lines, the defense isn't elite but is well-rounded, and Fleury and Pickard should at least provide average play. This isn't a Cup contender, but a playoff appearance seems like a reasonable bet. A young hockey market like Las Vegas would embrace an immediate winner.
That said, this is also an older team, with no future except a first-round bounce or two. I can see why McPhee avoided this path.
***
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