The Hurricanes (3-1-1) are trying to get their first three-game winning streak of the season against the Dallas Stars (4-3-0) tonight. This is the final game of their four-game road trip before they return home to play the Tampa Bay Lightning on the 24th.

The game tonight against the Stars seems similar to the one against Edmonton. This meaning that the Hurricanes ability to shut down their elite line (Seguin-Benn-Radulov) is a significant factor for the outcome. While it is a team effort against their top line, one piece critical to this success will continue to be the play of Slavin.

Many noted how well he did against McDavid earlier this week and the Hurricanes need a similar performance from him tonight. He logged over 27 minutes of TOI and had two points (1g, 1a) and five blocks in what was most likely his best game of the season to date.

The big question for me looking at this Stars team is on how well rounded and good they are. They certainly can score based on their high-end talent, but can they compete against balanced teams? I came to this question looking at the Stars' schedule and because of how well balanced the Hurricanes are.

Through the first five games, the Hurricanes have shown they are a top to bottom competitive team –all four lines can produce, and they have one of the best D units. They have found balanced scoring in their first five games, and ten players have scored goals. Even more impressive is the fact that Aho and Faulk are still searching for their first goal too.

The Stars four wins are against Arizona (2x), Colorado, and Detroit – all three of which were in the bottom five of the NHL last year. When playing more balanced teams, they have appeared to struggle more as their three losses came against St. Louis, Nashville, and Las Vegas.

Statistically, Dallas looks to be a tough opponent regardless of their schedule. The three categories that stood out the most were their shots for/against, rebound/high danger shots, and special teams.

They are first in the NHL for shots allowed per game with 27 and sixth for shots for per game with 35.7. The most impressive metric here is their shot suppression – then again, this is a Ken Hitchcock coached team. Overall, the Stars are sound in controlling the pace and possession and their team 5v5 Corsi for % (CF%) is 56.33.

The Stars offense isn’t just creating a lot of shots – it’s more about the type of shots. In seven games, they have produced 78 5v5 high-danger shots compared to the Hurricanes 35 through five games. Looking at all scenarios, the Stars have amassed 113 high-danger shots to the Hurricanes 51. (Shot stats took from Natural Stat Trick)

Beyond that, the Stars also create a lot of offense by creating rebounds in bunches. They have produced 45 rebound shots compared the Hurricanes 12 this season. In fact, their top line has more rebound shots created this season than the Hurricanes as a team – Seguin has six, Benn has four, and Radulov is at three.

Looking at those two shot metrics, it comes as no surprise that a key to tonight is how well the Hurricanes play in-close to the net. Winning battles in front of the net and on loose pucks will need to be a defensive priority.

Finally, the Stars special teams have been solid this season. The Hurricanes are one of the most disciplined teams in the NHL and average the least amount of PIM/GP with only 6:24. It will be critical tonight for them to keep the Stars PP off the ice, as they are 5th in the NHL and converting on 28.6%

There is no doubt that their powerplay is dangerous, but the PK may have more uncertainty. I say this despite it being ranked third in the NHL and killing 88.9% of penalties. This goes back to their schedule, as it is worth noting that many of their opponents have weak PP units – Colorado is 20th, St. Louis is 21st, Arizona is 22nd, Detroit is 23rd, and Vegas is 28th.

The Hurricanes should get plenty of chances to determine how strong the Stars PK is too. The Stars are one of the more undisciplined teams in the NHL, and their PIM/GP is 10:51. This should be one of the better tests for the Stars PK, as the Hurricanes PP is improving steadily and is 13th in the NHL converting on 21.7% of opportunities this year.

The PP struggles at times on zone entries, but when they can establish the zone, they have generated good chances. The road trip has been kind to their PP as they have scored in all three games so far. If they score again tonight, it would be the first time since 2015-16 season that they tallied a PPG in four straight games.

Overall, this should be another good defensive test for the Hurricanes. Puck drop is set for 8:00 and is on FSCR AND FSSW+. Coach Peters is sticking with the same lines he used against the Flames on Thursday.

Teravainen-Staal-Williams
Aho-Rask-Lindholm
Skinner-Ryan-McGinn
Nordstrom-Kruger-Jooris

Slavin-Pesce
Faulk-Hanifin
Fleury-van Riemsdyk

Darling

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