Crossroads, we are here. It’s amazing that that just over the one-eighth mark of the season, the Rangers are at a major tipping point. But here is where they are. Much of the blame to date has centered - no double meaning in that word - around coach Alain Vigneault but he is just the face of the fanbase’s ire. If looking for places to direct your anger, don’t forget GM Jeff Gorton and the players as well.
As Kevin DeLury wrote:
On opening night, Filip Chytil was the second line center, Pavel Buchnevich was on the top line, Anthony DeAngelo was in the starting lineup, Kevin Shattenkirk was on the top defensive pair, JT Miller was going to fill the hole at center, Adam Cracknell was in Dallas, Boo Nieves was in Hartford, Brendan Smith was going to be Brady Skjei’s Beukeboom and Steven Kampfer was the eighth defenseman. And somehow, someway, just 10 games later Chytil & DeAngelo are in Hartford, Buchnevich is on the fourth line, Shattenkirk is on the third pair, Miller is back on the wing, Cracknell was signed and waived, Nieves has been recalled, Smith has been a healthy scratch twice and Kampfer has played in two games. Not to mention that AV has gone with a line-up of 11 forwards and 7 defensemen in 40% of those games.
Meanwhile, Oscar Lindberg is getting top line minutes for the 6-1-0 Vegas expansion team, Dan Girardi is on the top defensive pair for the 8-1-1 Lightning and Tanner Glass is getting playing time for the 5-4-0 Calgary Flames.
Take a look at just how much has changed in just a three-week span. Now, part of this can be laid at the feet of AV, whose questionable player usage and deployment has been discussed as nauseum, ad infinitum. He doesn’t get a pass at all. Especially when you factor in the slow starts, as I noted yesterday. Overall, the Rangers have been down 1-0 within the first six minutes of the game in six of their 10 games, and five times within the first 2:40. When the same issue occurs over and over, that has to fall at the feet of the coaching staff for failing to either get the players up or prepared for the start of the game. I am unsure which is worse but either one doesn’t reflect well on AV and the coaching staff.
But it’s unfair to lay all the blame at AV’s feet. Gorton doesn’t get off scot-free, far from it. The goal the past few seasons was to contend for the Cup, based on a ‘window.’ On 2014, the acquisition of Martin St. Louis by then-GM Glen Sather, despite the high cost in terms of picks, helped lead to a Cup finals trip. That return likely bolstered management’s view on what could be done at the deadline. In 2015, Keith Yandle was brought in to bolster a woe-be-gone power play. The cost for Yandle was even higher, a first round pick and Anthony Duclair. While the jury is still out on Duke, he had a very good rookie year, horrific sophomore year last season and has rebounded this season. But this is where AV and Gorton intersect, because management brought in Yandle hey AV failed to use him properly, and the disconnect is another part of the problem.
In 2016, New York could have started to build for the future but a run just before the trade deadline convinced the team that they weee contenders. Gorton overpaid for Eric Staal, surrendering a pair of second rounders and Aleksei Saarela, despite like MSL, the player only wanting New York. Like Yandle, AV failed to deploy Staal properly, both in terms of ice time and line mates. Staal rebounded last season in Minnesota, showing that he still had some gas in the tank.
Last season, Brady Skjei took a major step forward and Brendan Smith was imported during the year helping a blue line that needed assistance. During the year, suggestions were made to start the tear down and rebuild, but New York went for it. A disappointing loss to Ottawa, one in which AV helped cost two games that would have changed the series, created an offseason that would shape the franchise.
That shape looks hideous right now. The decision was made to deal Derek Stepan; a choice that was driven by his cap hit and upcoming NMC. Rather than obtaining valuable assets, like a pivot man, or a defenseman that was a good fit, Gorton acquired the #7 pick and DeAngelo, who likely was a secondary choice. At the time, management probably felt Kevin Shattenkirk was a long shot despite his professed love for the Rangers. I addition, Arizona also likely said, you want the #7 pick as opposed to a later one, then the only d-man we will give is ADA. Gorton and maybe even AV pictured ADA running the PP. But losing Stepan and then Oscar Lindberg to Vegas in the expansion draft created a gaping hole in the middle. We have previously discussed losing Lindberg, who I really wanted to stay in NY and you know I would have dealt a pick and another player just to keep him.
What would New York do with the extra funds created by the trade of Stepan and also buyout of Dan Girardi, whose absence has created a huge leadership void. At a minimum, the expectation was that some of it would be spent on a center. Shattenkirk all but fell into their laps, because he took a discount to come to NYC. But where I was wrong and management as well to date was presuming that ‘Kirk could be a first line, d-man alongside Mac. That combination has failed to mesh, though they haven’t had enough a chance to build chemistry and see if it can work. This failure to date is on Gorton and Vigneault.
Money still remained or enough to get a center. But picking Liss Andersson swayed management to think he could be the 3C. So instead of adding several options, David Desharnais was imported to be the 4C, a role he is not suited for, with J.T. Miller as the fall back option for the third line center. Andersson wasn’t ready, Chytil got a cup of coffee and then demoted, Desharnais has been better than expected while Miller hadn’t been bad at center but is still better suited to wing. To me, it’s too easy to say the lack of a center has been the crux of the team’s failure to date, because the slow starts to half the games, the defensive breakdowns and struggles of Henrik Lundqvist, to name just three, are also major factors.
The key question is what is the team’s direction? Was the plan to rebuild around the young kids, deal with their growing pains but be a better team next year or in two years or was it to reload and win now? The Stepan trade seemed to indicate choice one while the Shattenkirk acquisition leans towards choice two. That puts AV and the coaching staff in a difficult position. Compounding this, which also gets to Gorton, is the questions on AV’s ability and willingness to play the kids and deal with the mistakes for future growth. New York appears to be caught in-between, but part of the determination on how to proceed will be based on the third component, the players.
Players play, coaches coach and general managers manage organizations. Teams can be successful even if 2 and 3 fail to an extent of the players excel. Through 10 games, that has been far from the case. The expected growth from Skjei has yet to occur, though his role and utilization hasn’t helped. McDonagh is far from what he has shown in the past and what was expected. Smith’s snarl and physical play are on display far too infrequently. Kirk is struggling to adapt to the team and system, which happened last year in Washington and raises broad questions about his ability to learn and adapt and the wisdom of the signing. The best d-man to date has been Marc Staal; the odds of this occurring before the year might have been 1,000000-to-1.
Miller has shown some signs but the bouts of inconsistency that plagued him in the past are on display again. The last few games have been Hayes’ best of the year, but playing with Jimmy Vesey and Jesper Fast won’t aid his growth. Vesey hit a wall last year but picked up his game in the playoffs, raising hopes for this season. But he hasn’t taken a step forward. The biggest offender might be Chris Kreider, who has all the tools to be a prototypical power forward, and his indifferent and invisible play now has him mentioned in trade rumors. Pavel Buchnevich has bounced from top to fourth line while maintaining his first line PP role. That shift makes little sense and enhances the argument that AV can’t adjust and doesn’t develop young players, though the prior performances of Miller etc. belie that argument to a certain extent. Other than the Toronto game, in which he had a goal and three assists, Mats Zuccarello has been invisible, which is completely unexpected. While Michael Grabner has reverted back to pumpkin stage, though I didn’t anticipate more than 15 goals from him. Mika Zibanejad has been the team's best forward, but after a ridiculously hot start, he as expected has slowed. Add in Rick Nash’s inability to score, a malady that has plagued him most of the time in NY, and is it any question the team has struggled. Puck luck also hasn’t helped, as New York has been unlucky there while also failing to make their own breaks.
Above I named four of the top six d-man, and if you include ADA, whose issues may be more usage than anything else, and that’s five of the top seven blue liners. The forwards paragraph included most of the skaters, many or most of whom have failed to meet expectations and/or struggled. It’s impossible to win when that happens. But if the deployment and management of the assets was better, maybe the team could be 4-4-2 rather than 2-6-2, which falls on AV and to Gorton, based on the team construction.
Now what? I liked the acquisition of Adam Cracknell, because I thought he could be deployed as a true fourth liner and bring some physical play, which has been lacking. Personally, I feel that if someone had to go through waivers to be sent down, make it Oaul Carey not Cracknell since Carey is a bit extraneous and potentially less useful in the future. The team has transitioned from a grit and grind team under John Tortorella to a skill and speed team under AV. That migration can be argued if it’s a pro or con. But even as a skilled team, there is room for a physical presence. Say what you want about Glass but he brought energy and willingness to hit, which woke up the team at times. It’s why an Antoine Roussel would make sense and why if Boo Nieves, who was promoted yesterday, is given a regular shift, he could provide that component.
Sending ADA down means that Hartford has eight d-men: Alexei Bereglazov, Brandon Crawley, DeAngelo, John Gilmour, Ryan Graves, Vince Pedrie, Neal Pionk and Ryan Sproul. You have to figure ADA sees regular ice and power play time. Sending him down to get that makes some sense rather that the minimal usage he was getting with the parent club. This leaves Nick Holden likely as the sixth d-man, comtinuining his ‘showcasing.’ But if teams didn’t know what he was before, so we really think playing time now will change their view of him? New York obviously didn’t want to just run Holden through waivers and lose him for nothing and I guess the same applies for Steven Kampfer, and with ADA below 50 games played, he was the easier choice to demote. Some form of deal has to be forthcoming because it will impossible to play all eight d-men and it’s detrimental to their progression as players to lose minutes.
The big names mentioned in possible deals have been Matt Duchene and Alex Galchenyuk. Duchene is signed through next year at $6 mil per. Are you willing to deal Brady Skjei for him, since that likely will be the ask. If so, it’s akin to the Yandle deal where future assets were surrendered for the short term, because its highly unlikely Duchene would remain in NY after his contract expires. That’s largely because of what his contract ask will be.
Galchenyuk has been demoted to the fourth line in Montreal. He has failed to stick at center when tried there or first lien wing. Montreal’s 2012 third overall draft pick, Galchenyuk posted with 23 points in the first 25 games, having made a strong case to stick as a top-line NHL center. He did struggle between the dots - 42.7 winning percent - and a leaves a lot to be desired defensively, but his play within the attacking zone made up for it. Unfortunately, a December knee injury shelved him for six weeks and lingered upon his return, at which time, the Canadiens underwent a coaching change and he was demoted. Galchenyuk is clearly in need of a change of scenery. But is Kreider the right player to deal for him? Granted, he has yet to put it all together or be the player we thought the team had after he made his debut in the 2012 playoffs. But he did post career-highs with 28 goals and 25 assists last year. Kreider, three years older than Galchenyuk, is making $4.625 mil this season and the next two while Galchenyuk is signed for the same length of time at $4.9 mil per season and each will be UFAs after their deals end. The goal to me is to increase the talent base not just maybe slightly augment it. However, if management is trying to send a message and shake it up, this deal could happen, even though it’s not a move I would make.
The blame game has landed in Vigneault. What I have tried to point out is that while much of it should sit on him, others are complicit in this argument as well. Fixing the problem needs to be priority one along with a decision on the direction of this squad. With 10 games done, plenty of time still remains. But it’s hard to picture a complete turnaround based on what has been in display to date. If improvement isn’t shown soon, changes will occur, some of which may not be favorable ones.
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