The blessing for the Ottawa Senators is that they won the hotly-contested Matt Duchene sweepstakes.
The curse is that Duchene will not be be cheap to re-sign when he becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the 2018-19 season.
The seven-asset exchange for Duchene saw Ottawa take possession of the sniping center while Nashville landed pivot Kyle Turris (immediately signed new 6-year, $36 million deal). Colorado received Sam Girard, Shane Bowers, Andrew Hammond, Vlad Kamenev, 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round draft choices.
Duchene is the largest, most lucrative player in this three-team trade. Duchene is the sponge that has absorbed a considerable amount of Ottawa’s available salary cap space in the short term and long term.
At the start of business on Sunday, the Sens had only $4.2 million in salary cap space. Kyle Turris was earning $3.5 million this season. Pierre Dorion’s cap slush disappeared immediately after the Duchene three-team swap meet.
As a result of the Duchene trade, the Sens now have only $1.9 million in available salary cap space for the 2017.18 season. The forecast calls for more cap pressure in Ottawa.
Duchene, 26, will count $6M AAV against the Ottawa salary cap this season and next. On July 1, 2019, Duchene will hit pay dirt when he becomes an unrestricted free agent. Duchene is already the second highest paid forward and the fourth highest paid player on the current Ottawa roster. Bobby Ryan has five years remaining on his current contract at $7.25M AAV. Dion Phaneuf is a $7M AAV for the next four seasons. Erik Karlsson has two years remaining at $6.5M AAV. Derick Brassard will earn $5M AAV this and next season.
You better believe that Karlsson will be breaking the bank with his new contract. I expect Karlsson to demand and receive $12 million a season for 8 seasons. Karlsson and his agent know full well that without the Swede rover in their lineup, the Sens are a wild card team or worse. Karlsson will not be negotiating with Dorion and Melnyk. The Sens are better off sliding a blank cashier’s check across the table to Karlsson with a Mont Blanc pen. Dorion will have zero leverage in any contract extension “negotiations” with Karlsson.
On Monday, the Sens introduced Duchene to the Ottawa media. Dorion was emphatic when he said he and his owner are going all-in now while they have Karlsson under contract. The Sens finished last season one win away from advancing to the Stanley Cup Finals. Who knows what would have happened had Karlsson been healthy.
“We have arguably one of the best players in the league in Erik Karlsson,” Dorion said. “I think while we have him here, we have to show him and the other guys that we’re willing to do whatever it takes in order to take that next step.”
Adding Duchene tells Karlsson that the Sens are serious about winning sooner than later. Duchene has only played in eight Stanley Cup playoffs games in his NHL career. He wants to take a deep playoff run with Ottawa at the end of the 2017-18 season.
When his current contract expires, Duchene will be looking to cash in on his next contract. Duchene will not be getting Karlsson money in his next deal, however, he will be looking for $7M AAV to $7.5M AAV over an eight-year term.
How will Dorion be able to bone out $19 million to $19.5 million per season to re-sign Karlsson and Duchene with?
But, wait. There’s more!
Derick Brassard will be looking for a new contract in the $6M AAV range over 6-8 seasons.
Dorion has two seasons to create $25 million to $25.5 million in salary cap space to accommodate new mega-contracts for Karlsson, Duchene and Brassard.
Bobby Ryan and his $7.25M AAV will likely become expendable to the Sens now that Duchene is in town. Ryan better get in contact with a veteran realtor.
Oh, by the way. Mark Stone is currently earning $3.5 million and will be a restricted free agent at the end of this season. Cody Ceci is earning $2.8 million this season. Ceci will be RFA on July 1, 2018. Frederik Claesson and Ben Harpur will also be RFA at the end of this season.
How Senators owner Eugene Melnyk chooses to handle the impending contract windfalls for Karlsson, Duchene, and Brassard remains to be seen. Melnyk isn’t known to be a spend-to-the-cap owner.
Win now. Or pay for it later.
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