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In this edition of the hotstove, we discuss which team is overachieving team is most likely to take a noticeable step back.
Todd Cordell
The New Jersey Devils.
Despite losing four consecutive games, the Devils still sit atop the Metro Division with a 9-4-2 record.
I don't think their success is likely to continue, though — at least not to the extent it is right now.
They rank 30th in Scoring Chance For%, 28th in Corsi For%, and 22nd in Expected Goals For%, and have been one of the worst 5v5 teams in the league over the last couple weeks.
They are missing two very important forwards in Marcus Johansson and Travis Zajac but, given they have arguably the worst defense core in the league, I don't envision their underlying numbers improving a whole lot.
If they don't, it's only a matter of time before the losses start to come more frequently.
Jared Crozier
There are some obvious choices, including Vegas, Jersey, Winnipeg and Vancouver that you could argue have all overachieved in the early going.
However, when I got this question yesterday and looked at the standings, the Colorado Avalanche were sitting in a playoff spot. That changed overnight and they are on the outside looking in but have games in hand.
At the start of the season, one of my bold predictions was that the Avs would be as bad, or worse, than they were last season. So, at the risk of jinxing the team I cover, who have a rather high profile weekend against them, I will say the Avalanche.
Now that they have traded arguably their best player in Matt Duchene (either him or Nathan MacKinnon), they will either have a let-down or they will step up in his departure. Looking at the roster, I don't see a playoff caliber team and I expect them to fall off, and quite honestly no time like the present weekend for that!
Peter Tessier
The obvious choices at first blush are Vegas, New Jersey, and Vancouver but I sometimes wonder a bit about LA.
Any of the first three could and perhaps should take drop, and perhaps Vancouver will start with Chris Tanev now out for some time with a broken thumb but what about LA?
The Kings are basically at 50% CF in all situations and the same at 5 vs 5 but they are getting some other-worldly goaltending from Quick and that has me curious. Quick is a very controversial goalie in terms of his skill and whether he is elite or not - sometimeshe is elite but other times he look average or below. Right now he's elite but I wonder how long he can keep that up for.
If you apply that same logic of goaltending then one would expect the Canucks to drop too as they are at the top of the heap for 5 vs 5 save % with the Devils and Kings not too far behind. Pick any one of these for a props bet and you might be safe but I don't think Vegas keeps their scoring up as long as they have so far. Take Vegas for that and a whole host of expansion reasons.
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