MELTZER'S MUSINGS: NOVEMBER 30, 2017
1) Ron Hextall was a guest on NBC Philadelphia's Sports Talk Philadelphia on Wednesday,
reiterating his support for head coach Dave Hakstol. The GM declared about Hakstol, "He's the guy and he's going to remain the guy."
Hextall also further discussed his assertion that the team has not been playing poorly overall during its current nine-game losing streak. He noted that a year ago, even it was ongoing, he also stated the team wasn't playing quite as well as their record seemed to suggest during last season during a 10-game winning streak from late November to mid-December.
2) The Flyers sent Danick Martel down to the Phantoms on Wednesday. He showed off the best elements of his game -- speed, ability to find the seams in the defense, and feistiness that belies his 5-foot-8 frame -- in relatively sparing ice time over his four-game recall.
It is likely that head coach Dave Hakstol would like to get Jordan Weal back into the lineup, and not in the fourth-line role he was relegated to for two games before sitting out the last two as a healthy scratch.
It is not a question of whether Martel is capable of scoring more than Dale Weise or Jori Lehterä. Those are not the guys he's competing with for ice time on the Flyers. He's competing with Travis Konecny (in whom the Flyers have the most invested, especially in the long term) and Weal.
Here's an overly simplistic non-hockey analogy. Suppose you form a rock band and the bassist and drummer aren't pulling their weight. Ditching the bassist and drummer and instead bringing in an additional rhythm guitarist isn't going to solve the issue. Yes, they all play in the rhythm section. It's still no solution.
The same principle, to some degree, also applies to assembling the role players on a hockey team. Having three pint-sized skill wingers in the lineup, unless they are absolutely lighting things up offensively, is a tough road to hoe in winning certain battles in the trenches. There's no argument here that Weise (not strong enough with the puck, not playing nearly as feisty as he was in the past) and Lehterä (slow feet, reluctant to shoot) have not been sufficiently effective in their roles to justify not scoring on top of it.
That raises a potential need for players who can better fill those roles (preferably cheaper) and, hopefully, also chip in some offense. If Oskar Lindblom can get going offensively for the Phantoms with a little less streakiness, the "Weise role" could be an NHL landing spot for the Swede with the Flyers, wherein he could eventually work his way up to more of the long-term role the organization still envisions for him as an all-situations player. That could even happen this season.
3) When a team is winless in nine games, it is hard to convincingly make the case the team has been playing well enough to deserve a significantly better fate.
The truth of the matter is that the Flyers have done good things for portions of most games during the stretch but they've had too many things go awry -- sometimes repeatedly, sometime finding new ways not to win -- to feel like they team "deserved" to be something like 4-4-1 in this stretch than 0-4-5. Losing out on points that are either in hand by protecting a lead or within your grasp by winning in overtime means there are clearly things you have to do better. Among the fatal things to arise in this stretch:
* When some of your best players have been direct culprits several times in defensive meltdowns (whether one-on-one coverage hiccups in OT or low percentage plays with the puck that lead to deadly counterattacks), you are going to see winnable games slip away.
* Taking dreadful penalties at the most inopportune times, especially against a top power play club such as Pittsburgh or in several situations where 5-on-4 kills were compounded into 5-on-3s by delay of game penalties -- is a recipe for seeing momentum turn the wrong way.
* Third period is crunch time in close games, which is the case on most nights around the NHL. The Flyers have had some good, average and dreadful third periods during the nine-game stretch but one common denominator is not actually winning those periods where it matters most: the cash register. A few times, it has been tough puck luck or opposing goalies making critical saves but there have also been too many games where the third period was where winnable points got away.
* Being shut out five times this season -- including back-to-back during the current nine-game stretch -- means there's still too much reliance on the top line and top PP unit. The Flyers have gotten some goals from the blueline lately and drips and drabs (two goals from Michael Raffl including one in Pittsburgh that should have been a huge uplift, one much-needed goal apiece from Nolan Patrick, Wayne Simmonds, Travis Konecny and Nolan Patrick) but there is still no consistency of scoring beyond the top line. On a brighter note, Patrick seems to be starting to settle in more and more. Therein lies the biggest hope to start generating a wider array of scoring depth.
* The Flyers 2nd power play unit, after looking improved the first week or so of the season, is in utter disarray. The top unit has more movement to throw different looks under Kris Knoblauch than the "stale and predictable" puck rotations that had worked well for years under Joe Mullen but the success rate so far is a tad lower and there are just as many if not more counterattacks being yielded.
* The Flyers penalty kill had actually been in a really good groove in the first half of this month; 20-for-24 (with one fluky own goal off a skate) to start including a 14-for-15 stretch. But when adversity struck in the Calgary game, the team hasn't been able to stop the bleeding ever since. It's gone on for too long, even with some personnel changes on the PK.
* Getting into a gut-check game and then not being competitive for 60 minutes, regardless of tired legs or frustration, is not good enough. Wednesday's game was going to be a tough one, especially in the third period, regardless of how the Flyers had entered the game (even on a winning streak) but they made things very easy on the Sharks to close down the game.
* In each of his last two starts, Michal Neuvirth has not tracked the puck well and, consequently, hasn't come up with some saves he's needed to make. While Brian Elliott has played very well for the most part -- indeed, he's been the team's best player in several of the games -- there have still been a few momentum goals against along the way on plays where he's had a chance at a save.
* In the last two games, the Flyers got burned 5-on-5 a few times. However, on the whole, it's been a team strength. The Flyers are still tied (with San Jose) for the fewest 5-on-5 goals allowed in the NHL this season.
Actually, after the Calgary OT loss, a couple of Flyers players tried to take some solace in how much in control of the game the team was overall at five-on-five. I asked Hakstol to assess the team's five-on-five play in that game. To his credit, he didn't want to go there.
"That doesn’t get you an extra point. It’s the complete game. You can’t just break it down to five on five play, where specialty teams play is. It's everything put together," Hakstol said.
That is certainly true. But a team at or near the top in fewest 5-on-5 goals allowed will often find itself with a better chance to be competitive most nights than ones that rely on being buoyed by special teams. That doesn't mean games can't be won or lost on special teams but when a team is trying to look at the broader picture of the season, 5-on-5 play is the biggest slice of the pie in most games.
4) On the new edition of the Flyers Buzz podcast on Flyers Radio 24/7, Brian Smith and I discussed some of these topics at length. To listen to the broadcast on demand or subscribe to the podcast
click here.
5) I do not personally see a benefit to making a head coaching change right now. First of all, it is doubtful that alone would magically correct all of the aforementioned issues. Secondly, I suspect that the much-scrutinized ice times and player usage would not change very much this season, because the way Hakstol handles his personnel is the way the majority of coaches do it (i.e., offensive-minded young players tend to get sparing ice time when their team is leading or tied in the third period). Lastly, installing a new system (or tweaking the existing one) would require an evaluation and adjustment period but not necessarily produce better outcomes.
That said, when Hextall let go of Craig Berube as head coach in the summer of 2015, it was on the stated basis that he wasn't getting the most from the team and individual players who were expected to progress did not do so sufficiently. Dating back to the post-Christmas swoon last season, it is tough to argue that the Flyers have moved the needle much as a team. On the flip side, would promoting Phantoms coach Scott Gordon or a Flyers assistant or, alternatively, recycling an out-of-work previous NHL coach magically improve fortunates right now? I just don't see that as a panacea. Sorry.
That said, if there is not tangible progress over the balance of this season -- which would not include suddenly getting hot in late March to April if its too late to push for a wild card -- there should be serious though about coaching staff changes over the summer. Hockey is a tough business, and the onus tends to fall first on the coaches, whether it is deserved or not. I will discuss the Flyers' most frequently maligned assistant among the fanbase (Ian Laperriere) in a separate off-day blog.
6) Some of this is related to youth but it's not just a matter of the typical inconsistency of young players. The Flyers are in a situation right now in which role player types -- such as Brandon Manning or the 2017 version of Valtteri Filppula (not the Detroit era version in-the-meat-of-his prime) are being relied on to help do heavy lifting nightly rather than every once in awhile, while high-talent types (such as Patrick, Konecny and Travis Sanheim) aren't ready for that burden yet even though they belong in the NHL.
I have stated this before, though, and I'm going to stick to my guns with it. I still think the Flyers vould end up with about the same number of points as last season. But rather than being tilted to the first half of the season, there will be improvements in the second half as some of the young guys contribute more frequently and at least a couple of the vets such as Wayne Simmonds hopefully recover something closer to their accustomed form.
7) I've also mentioned this before: We need to avoid the cycle of overhype followed by quick disappointment with prospects.
Some of the same folks who are unduly concerned about Nolan Patrick right now are the same ones who were down on Brayden Schenn as a rookie in 2011-12 when he was still looking for his first NHL goal and Flyers point (he had two assists in cups of coffee with LA) heading into the 2012 Winter Classic. They're also some of the same ones who ripped on the Flyers for "overvaluing" Schenn for six years and are now pining for him because he's off to a great start in St. Louis that he may not have had if he stayed here (at least not if Sean Couturier was still moved to the top line).
With all that said, Morgan Frost is a dynamic young prospect with very high-level playmaking skills as well as speed. I'm NOT saying he's going to have an NHL career like Claude Giroux's, because that's an unfairly high bar to set right now. What I will say is that he sees the ice as well as an 18-year-old junior leaguer as any prospect the Flyers have drafted (outside of the straight-to-the-NHL Patrick) since Giroux. But there are still many steps to take between now and him being a potential future NHL impact player, starting with filling out his frame.
On Thursday on Philadelphiaflyers.com, we will have a November prospect update on all Flyers draftees currently playing in the CHL. There are some gaudy recent stats noted in the roundup. Just keep in mind that every step up the ladder is a big adjustment and long-term success is the NHL is the biggest leap of all.
Just as Travis Konecny had a 100-point season in his draft-plus-one year and led the Flyers in preseason scoring in both 2016 and 2017, corresponding progress in the NHL often isn't as neat, tidy and fast as we'd all like. Not even having an excellent rookie year in the NHL is a safeguard against some adversity while still maturing: a player like Toronto's Mitch Marner is a great example.
7) History is a good teacher. We need to understand that young players, outside of those rare few "instant franchise players" like a 19-year-old Eric Lindros or 18-year-old Connor McDavid or Austin Matthews, are usually going to have some struggles even when they are NHL-ready. It takes some time to earn those game-on-the-line minutes that everyone envisions for their team's top prospects. If it doesn't come in year one or even year two, it's not the end of the world.
Even Simon Gagne had some games as a rookie -- as advanced and skilled as he already was as both an offensive and two-way talent -- where Roger Neilson opted for elevating Valeri Zelepukin over him in crunch time. Mike Richards and Jeff Carter certainly weren't ruined as rookies when Flyers fans were having regular anxiety attacks over how Ken Hitchcock was playing the likes of Brian Savage, an aging Petr Nedved and (early season) even Turner Stevenson more minutes on some nights than Carter and Richards. Of course, just a few years later, John Stevens and then Peter Laviolette relied heavily on the two 2003 first-round picks while the other guys were long gone.
Likewise, there will come a day when Patrick, Konecny, Travis Sanheim, et al, will be tabbed regularly as go-to guys in key situations. Right now, while they are still finding themselves as NHL players, it's going to be the Filppula and Andrew MacDonald types. It's a step on a path; one that can be frustrating if you can't look out just a bit further on the horizon.
8) Related note: In stating his support for Hakstol and the assistant coaches on NBC Sports Philadelphia's Philly Sports Talk, Hextall said that he believes Hakstol and his assistants are assisting the team's young players along their early NHL paths in a positive direction. The GM said the public may not see it, but he is convinced it will pay dividends.
"Whether they get a couple minutes taken away, Hak does a lot of things behind the scenes for young players, older players that help them improve not only short term but also long term," Hextall said.
"There's a lot for those kids to learn. Hak's done a good job with these guys. ...Have they stumbled a little bit? Of course, they have. They're young people, they're young players but they're getting better every day."
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PHANTOMS UPDATE: PHANTOMS BLANKED BY BINGHAMTON, 3-0
In a game that was reminiscent of a few too many NHL games between their parent clubs over the last 22 years, the Lehigh Valley Phantoms were bottled up and frustrated by the visiting Binghamton Devils on Wednesday night and went down to a 3-0 defeat.
The Devils took away the middle of the ice, most everything below the dots and made it hard either to carry in the puck with speed or generate chip-ins with strong same-side puck pursuit. Lehigh Valley struggled to adjust to any appreciable degree.The Phantoms were held to 14 shots through 40 minutes and 25 for the game as they got shut out for the first time this season.
Ken Appleby earned the win for the Devils. Alex Lyon (21 saves on 24 shots) absorbed the loss for the Phantoms.
The game was scoreless for the first 39:20 before Binghamton defenseman Jacob McDonald sent his team to the second intermission with a 1-0 lead. The real death blow for the Phantoms was a fluky shorthanded by Kevin Rooney at 5:41 of the third period; a harmless bank shot attempt from behind the Phantoms goal line that Lyon tried to knock back into the corner and instead put into his own net. Joe Blandisi added some extra insurance with 3:29 left in the game; McDonald earned an assist on the play for a two-point game.
Phantoms head coach Scott Gordon tried an interesting new line combination. With Danick Martel returning to the team after being reassigned by the Flyers earlier in the day, Gordon did not reunite the trio of Martel, Mike Vecchione and Nicolas Aube-Kubel (the one line that had been steadily together all season prior to Martel's Flyers recall). Instead he switched Oskar Lindblom from left wing to right wing to complete the trio.
While that line is one that could develop some chemistry if they stay together, it wasn't clicking on this night along with most everything else the Phantoms were doing with the puck. The Phantoms were 0-for-5 on the power play (but 3-for-3 on the penalty kill).
The starting lineup was as follows:
18 Danick Martel - 21 Mike Vecchione - 28 Oskar Lindblom
10 Greg Carey - 26 Phil Varone - 24 Matt Read
19 Radel Fazleev - 15 Mikhail Vorobyev - 16 Nicolas Aube-Kubel
12 Tyrell Goulbourne - 14 Corban Knight - 22 Chris Conner
43 T.J. Brennan - 40 James de Haas
3 Samuel Morin - 2 Mark Alt
8 Will O'Neill - 37 Mark Friedman
34 Alex Lyon
[35 Dustin Tokarski]
Scratches: Alex Krushelnyski (healthy), Colin McDonald (veteran limit in lineup, healthy), Philippe Myers (injury), Reece Willcox (injury), Cole Bardreau (upper-body injury), Max Lamarche (injury).
With the loss on Wednesday, the Phantoms dropped to 12-7-2 on the season. On Friday, they will host the arch-rival Hershey Bears (9-9-3) at the PPL Center.
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